Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional breakdowns from SES (15th to 19th daily tracker added together)... 5 day roll...

Atlantic: Con 40%, Lib 35%, NDP 22%
Montreal: BQ 41%, Lib 23%, NDP 17%, Con 14%
RestofQuebec: BQ 46%, Con 28%, Lib 16%, NDP 8%
GTA: Lib 37%, Con 36%, NDP 20%, Grn 8%
SWOnt: Con 44%, Lib 37%, NDP 15%
EandNOnt: Lib 45%, Con 36%, NDP 15%*
ManSask: Con 41%, Lib 28%, NDP 27%
Alberta: Con 55%, Lib 26%, NDP 11%, Grn 8%
BC: Con 33%, Lib 33%, NDP 29%

*I think that this sample might have blown up...

[Tory]

Do any more respectable polls come out tomorrow or Monday?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do any more respectable polls come out tomorrow or Monday?

I'm not sure what the laws are on polling (I think they ban them on election day. Not sure though) but I think there'll be some more tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Found this semi-interesting...

Recent Layton campaign stops include Vancouver, Regina, Thunder Bay, Sudbury and London. IIRC he also did a video link thingy for the Madawaska-Restigouche riding in northern New Brunswick (as the weather was bad).

Harper was in Toronto (Don Mills area), Strathroy, Guelph and Sarnia. He was actually in PEI the other day IIRC.

Martin was in London, Kitchener, Brampton and Winnipeg (with a seperate stop in the St. Boniface area).

Duceppe was in Levis, Saguenay, Ascot, Cowansville and Montreal.

[bullmoose88]

Found this semi-interesting...

Recent Layton campaign stops include Vancouver, Regina, Thunder Bay, Sudbury and London. IIRC he also did a video link thingy for the Madawaska-Restigouche riding in northern New Brunswick (as the weather was bad).

Harper was in Toronto (Don Mills area), Strathroy, Guelph and Sarnia. He was actually in PEI the other day IIRC.

Martin was in London, Kitchener, Brampton and Winnipeg (with a seperate stop in the St. Boniface area).

Duceppe was in Levis, Saguenay, Ascot, Cowansville and Montreal.

Al, or any one else that knows...

What are the nature of the districts that each candidate is visiting? Is Harper assaulting Liberal ridings (or Martin vica-versa)...or are both leaders trying to shore up weaker districts?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, or any one else that knows...

What are the nature of the districts that each candidate is visiting? Is Harper assaulting Liberal ridings (or Martin vica-versa)...or are both leaders trying to shore up weaker districts?

O.K...

Vancouver has two NDP targets and the metro area in general has a couple more, Regina is the victim of crazy riding boundaries but forms the core of at least one crucial NDP target (maybe more), Thunder Bay is divided between two Liberal seats (both NDP targets), the same with Sudbury (sort of), and the NDP are targeting a riding in the eastern, blue collar, end of London. Madawaska-Restigouche (sp?) is a blue collar francophone riding in northwest New Brunswick and has suffered some serious job cuts of late. In other words Layton is on the offensive.

The Don Mills area of Toronto includes several Liberal ridings with large majorities; all are very rich and white collar though, Strathroy is in a key swing riding in SW Ontario, Guelph looked to be safe Liberal seat until a few weeks ago... the same story with Sarnia. Both are in SW Ontario. PEI is o/c Prince Edward Island; all Liberal since 1988. Tories think they can win the main urban riding there. In other words, he's also on the offensive.

London contains two marginal Liberal seats (one to the NDP one to the Tories) and another unstable Liberal seat, Kitchener is the core of an (almost all Liberal in 2004) key swing region of Ontario, same with Brampton (which is where Siege lives, btw). Winnipeg is home to some vunerable Liberal ridings, some safe NDP ridings and two marginal (in 2004) Tory ridings. St. Boniface has been regarded as a Liberal stronghold for something like a century (although it has gone Tory in big sweeps and by-elections). In other words, Martin is in deep doo-doo.

Levis is just across the river from Quebec City, Saguenay is the area around Jonquire (sp?) and is usually a seperatist stronghold (apparently Tories running well there), Ascot and Cowansville are in the Eastern Townships and you know where Montreal is. In other words, he's attacking the Liberals and trying to fight off the Tories.

[Dave from Michigan]

I was in Windsor yesterday I didn't see any sign of an election.  If the conservatives don't get a majority how long do you think it will be before a new election.

[bullmoose88]

I'd have to think very soon, unless the tories can deftly form issue to issue coalitions...

[Hatman 🍁]

Polling is banned within 48 hours of the polls opening. No more polls, guys.

[bullmoose88]

whats your prediction Earl?

[Hatman 🍁]

whats your prediction Earl?

It's coming

[bullmoose88]

...

[angus]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

Reminds me of that "soul food" place on the corner of 125th and Manhattan Avenue I ate at over the summer.  And a bunch of other places in Harlem as well.

Anyway, thanks Vorlon for the data.  And thanks to you Al.  Don't really know how I could have missed this 35-page thread.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling is banned within 48 hours of the polls opening. No more polls, guys.

Damn

I guess there's always a hope that some polls done yesterday have yet to be published...

Anyways I'm currently adding a new set of predictions to me blog

[© tweed]

electionprediction.com has their prediction as surprisingly close: CPC 108, LPC 93, BQ 58, NDP 23, Other 1, Too Close 25.

Both the CPC and NDP will probably do better than that. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Electionprediction.com (and similer sites etc) has a tendency to be somewhat pro-incumbent in it's calls; it's missed one electoral landslide (the last Quebec provincial election) before, for example.

Still a good site though; reading people's predictions being the main attraction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Final SC poll... Con 37%, Lib 27%, NDP 18%. All regional changes well within the MoE. Pollster says things are very steady now; few changes over the past few days.

Also have a look at this: http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/21Jan2006Background.pdf

[Dave from Michigan]

about when will we start getting election results tommorrow

[The Vorlon]

Polling is banned within 48 hours of the polls opening. No more polls, guys.

Actually, the Poll ban is no longer in effect - The Canadian Supreme court didn't get the memo from their political masters and chucked the polling ban out as unconstitutional

Here is an EKOS poll with the last sample Friday night. - Tories up 10.1% over the three nights, up 14% in the Friday sample



Hers is an SES tracker, includes calls made friday night as well, shows Tories up 6.8% - SES has been 3% or so better for the Grits the entire way BTW


There is also a new Strategic Council poll (sample = 2000, 500 each Wed + thursday night, 1000 on Saturday) showing the Tories up 10% as well



There will also be new SES, SC polls tonight as well, think Decima may have a final poll as well.

[angus]

Final SC poll... Con 37%, Lib 27%, NDP 18%. All regional changes well within the MoE. Pollster says things are very steady now; few changes over the past few days.

Also have a look at this: http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/21Jan2006Background.pdf

Interesting Al.  Seems that Con makes steady gains at the expense of the Lib, NDP, and BQ, with green holding steady at a whopping 4 percent.  Am I reading this right?  Some regional aspects unsurprising.  Alberta seems like the Wyoming (or the Bavaria) of Canada, politically.  Quebec the Kurdistan of Canada.  Or used to be before Cretien's ascent seemed to placate some of the more chauvinistic elements of francophonia.  I must admit that I don't follow Canadian elections closely, since I have no direct investments in that country's economy.  My money's in US and Germany at the moment.  But my wife's sister and her husband and child live and work in Toronto and are seeking legal entry into the USA.  Seems Canada has become a staging point for folks trying to get into the US, either legally or illegaly, based on conversations I've had.  (e.g., the Bengali colleague I often mention comes here from Canada as well.)  Still, that country's economy is no weaker than ours at the moment, just much smaller and thus without the great potential for mobility of workers, so you have to wonder what underlies the shift in allegiances we're apparently seeing.  I say "apparently" because as you know the proof will be in the pudding.  That said, I have no personal favorites, save whichever groups are most likely to assist my extended family in their intended migration into this country.  Interesting to speculate about the cause of the shifts, though. 

Help me to try to understand the question on page 24.  "Vote switchers:  CPC or bandwagon effect?"  Is that asking voters whether they'd vote strategically, and differently, if it seems like the probable outcome would produce a coalition they'd not be comfortable with?  And what do the terms specifically mean?  I admit my ignorance in advance.  Thanks.

[2952-0-0]

about when will we start getting election results tommorrow

There are no exit polls here (probably because they are useless in a parliamentary system) but here are the closing times:

Newfoundland Time (all of Newfie island): 8:30 pm
Atlantic Time (all of NS, PEI, New Brunswick and some Quebec islands): 8:30 pm
Eastern Time (the vast majority of Ontario+Quebec): 9:30 pm
Central Time (Manitoba and Sask): 8:30 pm
Mountain Time (Alberta and part of BC): 7:30 pm
Pacific Time (rest of BC): 7:00 pm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the crazy poll ban is no more?

Liberals down to 24%; now that is interesting...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Putting that into Eastern Time for those who don't want to have to deal with six different time zones.

Newfoundland closes its polls at 7PM ET, the rest of the matitimes a half hour later at 7:30, most of Canada at 9:30, and BC and Yukon trail the pack at 10:00.

We probably won't see the first riding called until around 9PM ET or so.

[2952-0-0]

From cbc.ca:

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[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

C-SPAN is scheduled to start simulcasting the CBC at 9:30 ET, so unless they're going to just talk for a half hour, results should be easily available via that source starting then.