Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Judäischen Volksfront]

do all canadians learn french in school?

No, it isn't mandatory in the whole country since the federal government has no department for education. But every area must have a school in the other official language.

[Vasall des Midas]

Just took an old Canadian political party selector of just 6 questions on SelectSmart. LMAO!

"#1 Natural Law Party
#2 Green Party
#3 Christian Heritage Party
#4 Marxist-Leninist Party
#5 Alliance Party
#6 Canadian Action Party
#7 New Democratic Party
#8 Bloc Quebecois
#9 Liberal Party
#10 Progressive Conservative Party "

[Sibboleth]

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/15/elxn-libs-quebec.html

Meanwhile the Trackers are showing very different Dipper numbers; SES says 12%, SC says 17%. Most other pollsters say 16-17%, btw.

[Hatman]

do all canadians learn french in school?

No, it isn't mandatory in the whole country since the federal government has no department for education. But every area must have a school in the other official language.

I guess it is a provincial thing. It is mandatory in Ontario.

On a side note, the English debate is in 13 minutes

[Sibboleth]

New Leger poll! (+/- are the pt changes from the last poll NOT the 2004 election results)...

National

Lib 35% (-4)
Con 29% (+2)
NDP 17% (+1)
BQ 12% (-)

Atlantic

Lib 54% (+7)
Con 26% (-5)
NDP 16% (-3)

Quebec

BQ 50% (-)
Lib 30% (-2)
NDP 10% (+3)
Con 9% (-)

Ontario

Lib 42% (-5)
Con 31% (+3)
NDP 18% (-)

Man/Sask

Con 38% (+6)
NDP 29% (+6)
Lib 26% (-13)

Alberta

Con 51% (-4)
Lib 27% (+1)
NDP 11% (+2)

BC

Con 38% (+4)
NDP 28% (+4)
Lib 26% (-6)

[Vasall des Midas]

Why exactly are the Liberals polling that high in the Maritimes right now? Still haven't understood that.

[afleitch]

If I was Canadian the Conservatives would have just lost my vote over the last week.

[Sibboleth]

Why exactly are the Liberals polling that high in the Maritimes right now? Still haven't understood that.

National breakdowns for the Martimes are not to be trusted. Will post a lot more on this in that thread where this question was asked a while ago, but for now it's suffice to say that all four provinces are very different from each other... if you oversample PEI or rural Newfies (this seems to happen a lot for some reason)... well you can guess what happens...

[Hatman]

Why exactly are the Liberals polling that high in the Maritimes right now? Still haven't understood that.

National breakdowns for the Martimes are not to be trusted. Will post a lot more on this in that thread where this question was asked a while ago, but for now it's suffice to say that all four provinces are very different from each other... if you oversample PEI or rural Newfies (this seems to happen a lot for some reason)... well you can guess what happens...

Come to think of it, Newfoundland is really weird. The rural-urban split is reversed. I'm not sure that makes any sense. The tories won both of St John's' seats but none of the rural seats.

[Vasall des Midas]

Why exactly are the Liberals polling that high in the Maritimes right now? Still haven't understood that.

National breakdowns for the Martimes are not to be trusted. Will post a lot more on this in that thread where this question was asked a while ago, but for now it's suffice to say that all four provinces are very different from each other... if you oversample PEI or rural Newfies (this seems to happen a lot for some reason)... well you can guess what happens...

Come to think of it, Newfoundland is really weird. The rural-urban split is reversed. I'm not sure that makes any sense. The tories won both of St John's' seats but none of the rural seats.

I think that's an ancient pattern based somewhat on an Irish Catholic -West Country English Protestant split ... although I forget what made the Catholics Tories. I think it was the other way round in the early years of the province. (Newfoundland has had male adult universal suffrage since very early by the way, mostly because any sort of income threshold, even a minimal one, would have ruled out 90-odd% of the population, which in the 18th/early 19th century consisted mostly of subsistence fishermen with next-to-no cash income whatsoever.)

[Sibboleth]

New contender for the Embarrasing Photo Award...



Spot the flat tire!

EDIT: picture now shows

[Jake]

New contender for the Embarrasing Photo Award...



Spot the flat tire!

[Sibboleth]

NDP have been gaining in the trackers since the debates; even SES are showing them above 15% now. They *seem* to have gained the most in the Atlantic and Praries (not inc. Alberta o/c...)

[Sibboleth]

I think that's an ancient pattern based somewhat on an Irish Catholic -West Country English Protestant split ...

Up to a point it is, yes. Joey Smallwood's ghost looms rather large as well. Will post a lot of stuff on this on another thread soon...

[Sibboleth]

Decima poll:

Lib 35%, Con 25%, NDP 21%, BQ 13%

No idea if it's junk or not; can't find any internals. Will look.

[Hatman]

Decima poll:

Lib 35%, Con 25%, NDP 21%, BQ 13%

No idea if it's junk or not; can't find any internals. Will look.

That's an internet poll of 6000 people. Of course, Decima selected the people to do the poll, but it's still on the internet. What it tells me is that is the polling data for people who use the internet.

[Sibboleth]

The general trend of the NDP improving in the Atlantic and in the West is continuing in the trackers. Been a noticable fall in Ontario (could just be sampling issues actually).
The trackers show a sharply different picture for Quebec: SES has the BQ hovering around 50%. Strategic Counsel has the BQ hovering around 60%.

[Sibboleth]

Nice load of polls today... and they don't all say the same thing!

SES: Lib 39%, Con 29%, NDP 15%, BQ 12%
Strategic Counsel: Lib 33%, Con 30%, NDP 18%, BQ 14%
Leger: Lib 38%, Con 28%, NDP 17%, BQ 12%

Regional highlights

*Predictably SES finds both the Tories and the NDP polling significantly better out West than nationally
*Both SC and Leger have Man/Sask breakdowns, and both are very different [SC: Con 41, NDP 29, Lib 27. Leger: Lib 35, Con 27, NDP 25]. Methinks Winnepeg was overpolled by Leger.
*And the same is the case in BC where both pollsters have a statistical dead-heat between the Liberals and another party, with a third on about 25%... Leger has the Tories second, while SC has the NDP second.
*SC has a further BC breakdown; Liberals have a good lead in the Lower Mainland, while the NDP and the Tories are tied in the rest of the province.
*In Ontario, Leger and SC agree; all parties have stalled. SES shows a Tory surge (up to 37% now).
*SC has area code breakdowns; Liberals on 51% in both the 416 and 905 areas (with both the NDP and Tories in the low '20's in the 416, and the Tories on 35 in the 905 with the NDP on 10...), a very close Lib/Con race in SW Ontario (with the NDP slowly moving up), and a decent lead for the Tories in Eastern Ontario. No breakdown for Northern Ontario.
*In Quebec Leger has the BQ flatlining on 50%, SC has them polling at saner low '50's numbers... while SES has them at below 50% for the first time in a while.
*All pollsters show very similer numbers in the Atlantic; Liberals down from their '50%+ numbers of a few weeks ago [down to just 40% in Leger for example], while the Tories have basically flatlined. The NDP have had a notable surge over the past few weeks; now polling at around 24%.

[Hatman]

Atlantic Canada won't matter. I don't predict any seat changes there.

[Sibboleth]

How will all the mess with Goodale play then? http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/28/goodale051228.html

[Hatman]

We shall find out in the new year

[Sibboleth]

The sh*t deepens:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/30/elxn_pm_incometrust051230.html

[Vasall des Midas]

We shall find out in the new year

Here it is the new year and we haven't found out yet.

[Sibboleth]

We shall find out in the new year

Here it is the new year and we haven't found out yet.

Actually... we may have done. New poll out [Decima]...

Liberal 32%, Tory 30%, NDP 18%, BQ 14%
MoE 3.1%

Can't find much regional stuff yet; just one figure from Ontario... Liberal 40%, Tory 36%.

Apparently one of the trackers is up again and is showing similer numbers...

[Hatman]

We shall find out in the new year

Here it is the new year and we haven't found out yet.

That's cause you're German