Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quick summary...

Torys barely ahead nationally, right at the margin of error.

Fundementals moving very strongly to Harper and away from Martin.

I expect very soon "soft" support indicators such as "who do you trust most", "who represents your values best" etc will see Harper either tie or overtake Martin.

Sounds about right

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Ah... now that's interesting...

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Do you know whether they're rebounding mainly in the Lower Mainland or in the Interior? Would be useful to know.

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Mainly because of Toronto, right? Do you know if they're still leading in the 905 or not?

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Interesting

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Seems about right actually; there's another debate in a few days isn't there? A possible turning point ala '84?

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Other than this: "it's close"

[Lincoln Republican]

New Democrats      18 seats

Why do you think the NDP will lose seats?

My reasoning is that the NDP will be caught in the squeeze between the Conservatives and the Liberals, voters knowing the NDP cannot win, and mostly either voting Conservative for a change in government, or voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Newmarket-Aurora is Belinda territory!!!

Is there anything beyond your gut feeling to back that assertion?  Looking at past election results it's a natural Tory area that the Libs only manged to win during the right-wing split and it appears to be an election in which the Tories will gain seats and the Grits will lose seats.  I'll grant that without Belinda the Grits wouldn't have any chance but unless someone has released a riding specific poll, I can't see changing my prediction any further.

[Hatman 🍁]

Newmarket-Aurora is Belinda territory!!!

Is there anything beyond your gut feeling to back that assertion?  Looking at past election results it's a natural Tory area that the Libs only manged to win during the right-wing split and it appears to be an election in which the Tories will gain seats and the Grits will lose seats.  I'll grant that without Belinda the Grits wouldn't have any chance but unless someone has released a riding specific poll, I can't see changing my prediction any further.

First of all, the whole 905 area is trending Liberal. The area is Liberal provincially IIRC. In fact, it was Liberal federally since 1993. The Conservatives only won in 2004 because of the "Belinda factor". Remember, the riding was still very close. Why? Because the riding is very Liberal. Now that Belinda is a Liberal, she should keep it.

[bullmoose88]

Newmarket-Aurora is Belinda territory!!!

Is there anything beyond your gut feeling to back that assertion?  Looking at past election results it's a natural Tory area that the Libs only manged to win during the right-wing split and it appears to be an election in which the Tories will gain seats and the Grits will lose seats.  I'll grant that without Belinda the Grits wouldn't have any chance but unless someone has released a riding specific poll, I can't see changing my prediction any further.

First of all, the whole 905 area is trending Liberal. The area is Liberal provincially IIRC. In fact, it was Liberal federally since 1993. The Conservatives only won in 2004 because of the "Belinda factor". Remember, the riding was still very close. Why? Because the riding is very Liberal. Now that Belinda is a Liberal, she should keep it.

Liberal since 1993? Since the PC split and collapse? Ernest has a point here.

I personally think she'll hold it, but wouldn't be surprised if the Tories take it from her.

[Gabu]

My reasoning is that the NDP will be caught in the squeeze between the Conservatives and the Liberals, voters knowing the NDP cannot win, and mostly either voting Conservative for a change in government, or voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.

Why would the unlikelihood of an NDP victory make voters not vote NDP?  It's never stopped them before.

I predict the NDP to gain seats for one simple reason: the Liberal party is essentially the centrist party in Canada.  That means the ridings that a Liberal currently represents can go one of two ways: either more conservative (Conservative) or more liberal (NDP).  The more conservative places that previously voted Liberal are likely now to be won by the Conservative Party and the more liberal places that previously voted Liberal are likely now to be won by the NDP.

The people who voted NDP in the last election are not likely to change their votes: they knew that the NDP wasn't going to win last election, and a Tory minority was possible there, as well.  That means that the NDP voters' numbers can only go up from what they were in 2004.

[Hatman 🍁]

My reasoning is that the NDP will be caught in the squeeze between the Conservatives and the Liberals, voters knowing the NDP cannot win, and mostly either voting Conservative for a change in government, or voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.

Why would the unlikelihood of an NDP victory make voters not vote NDP?  It's never stopped them before.

I predict the NDP to gain seats for one simple reason: the Liberal party is essentially the centrist party in Canada.  That means the ridings that a Liberal currently represents can go one of two ways: either more conservative (Conservative) or more liberal (NDP).  The more conservative places that previously voted Liberal are likely now to be won by the Conservative Party and the more liberal places that previously voted Liberal are likely now to be won by the NDP.

The people who voted NDP in the last election are not likely to change their votes: they knew that the NDP wasn't going to win last election, and a Tory minority was possible there, as well.  That means that the NDP voters' numbers can only go up from what they were in 2004.

That's a good analysis, Gabu. I have heard some predictions that Burnaby-New Wesminster and Burnaby-Douglas will swing Liberal this election though (from NDP). Why do you think that is, Gabu?

If the NDP loses Burnaby-Douglas, than that means they will only have one riding left that they also won in 1993. Makes me wonder if there are any "safe" NDP seats out there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories with an 8pt lead in a new Strategic Counsel poll. Regional stuff is somewhat dubious in places but two things still look very interesting; Liberals have crashed to third in the Prairies (which includes Alberta for this poll) with what looks to be a direct 5pt swing to the Dippers, while the Tories are on 19% in Quebec... up 11pts since the last poll...

The former is almost certainly due to Goodale's dodgy dealings, while the latter has been noted in other polls already.

Could Martin be Turner? Another debate tonight IIRC.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Goodale will lose his seat? Probably not, it wasn't very close last time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder if Goodale will lose his seat?

Possible; you do see huge upsets from time to time (Howe, Dingwall etc)... only thing would be...

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Yes but... in 2000 he was only 5pts ahead of the CA candidate...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Decima poll shows the Tories with a 9pt lead. Rumour has it that Ipsos-Reid are about to release a poll showing an 11pt lead and that EKOS has something earth shattering...

Looking pretty damn bleak for Martin now in't it? He now has to win the debate and win it well or he's toast IMO.

[bullmoose88]

A Decima poll shows the Tories with a 9pt lead. Rumour has it that Ipsos-Reid are about to release a poll showing an 11pt lead and that EKOS has something earth shattering...

Looking pretty damn bleak for Martin now in't it? He now has to win the debate and win it well or he's toast IMO.

Maybe it won't even matter if he wins the debate...people can still like (or at least not hate) the party leader and hate the party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe it won't even matter if he wins the debate...people can still like (or at least not hate) the party leader and hate the party.

True ('though Martin himself ain't too popular right now). Still, unless Harper gaffes bigtime, it's probably his last chance at saving political career.
I'm starting to wonder if the Liberals could go completely belly-up actually... what'll be interesting is what happens if (and I still don't see it happening, however much I'd like it to) the gap between the NDP and the Liberals is *smaller* than between the Liberals and the Tories... in more than one poll.

[bullmoose88]

Maybe it won't even matter if he wins the debate...people can still like (or at least not hate) the party leader and hate the party.

True ('though Martin himself ain't too popular right now). Still, unless Harper gaffes bigtime, it's probably his last chance at saving political career.
I'm starting to wonder if the Liberals could go completely belly-up actually... what'll be interesting is what happens if (and I still don't see it happening, however much I'd like it to) the gap between the NDP and the Liberals is *smaller* than between the Liberals and the Tories... in more than one poll.

1993 PC belly up?

[Hatman 🍁]

The debate is in 75 minutes

[bullmoose88]

See...Its hard for me to pick a side to "support" in Canada...obviously not the NDP (sorry), but the Liberals are so damn corrupt, and the Tories are too conservative socially...

gah

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1993 PC belly up?

Nah; they've got too many rubber-stamp Tammany Hall strongholds to let that happen... but I get the feeling that this could be 1984 all over again. Maybe not. Maybe tonight will see the beginning of a Martin comeback of Lazarus-like proportions. Probably not though.

[bullmoose88]

1993 PC belly up?

Nah; they've got too many rubber-stamp Tammany Hall strongholds to let that happen... but I get the feeling that this could be 1984 all over again. Maybe not. Maybe tonight will see the beginning of a Martin comeback of Lazarus-like proportions. Probably not though.

Unless Martin can somehow fend off the tide and get the Liberals into a near majority or majority government...how does he stay in power?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unless Martin can somehow fend off the tide and get the Liberals into a near majority or majority government...how does he stay in power?

He doesn't. If the Liberals aren't the biggest party, the Tories are and Harper will be PM. If the result is a narrow Minority for the Liberals, then Martin is deposed in a rather brutal way (although probably not *quite* as brutally as what their sister party has just done to their leader. Youch... something about the word "liberal" in parties names does this apparently...) and (most likely) some ex-Premier (McKenna?) will take over.

[2952-0-0]

Holy SH*T!! The debate is in 46 minutes and I want to go home quick!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure if I'm reporting this right but...

Ipsos-Reid sez...

Con 37%, Liberal 26%, NDP 18%, BQ 14%, Grn 5%

[bullmoose88]

11 points?

how does this translate seat wise? is there a natural liberal advantage in the way ridings are drawn which will offset this a bit?

[bullmoose88]

Well, how is the debate going?

[Tory]

Well, how is the debate going?

Harper called Layton Ed Broadbent, hehe. Other than that not too many surprises. You can watch it online at cbc.ca. Martin is doing well imo considering he's being slammed from all sides.

[Hatman 🍁]

11 points?

how does this translate seat wise? is there a natural liberal advantage in the way ridings are drawn which will offset this a bit?

Actually, the tories have a natural advantage