Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[minionofmidas]

No, their Saskatchewan predictions depress me too much.

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

Challenge accepted. I've made one prediction so far (not up yet) for a certain riding on a large island west of Vancouver. Should be easy to spot when it's up

Large island west of Vancouver? Sakhalin?

[minionofmidas]

I guess on those figures, the Liberals would get back in with another minority of roughly the same size, right?

[minionofmidas]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

[minionofmidas]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

Yes, that translates to about approximately 0 seats

0 to 2, I'd say. But if they keep up this growth rate, they'll be the majority there in two years time!

[minionofmidas]

Hey -  the increase has to come from somewhere. I hope they don*t gain uniformly again...disproportionate gains from First Nations might put Athapasca (sp?) on the agenda...

[minionofmidas]

You're probably right of course, I`m not denying that at all. You know that?

[minionofmidas]

Alberta is disappointing.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah but...compare to this poll...

Ipsos Reid:

National: LPC 34 (+7), CPC 28 (-3), NDP 17 (-2)

Some very odd regional results. Not sure if it marks a big change, or if it's a load of statistical blips:

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What's so odd about that (other than tories down in Quebec)?

[minionofmidas]

So when are these elections supposed to be?

[minionofmidas]

In votes - grotesquely unlikely.
In seats - No. Under no circumstances. Even a Liberal meltdown ala PC 92 (or whenever it was; anyways, not gonna happen) would likely give us the Bloc as second party

[minionofmidas]

French debate tommorow.

So we can see how well Harper can speak it?

[minionofmidas]

Just took an old Canadian political party selector of just 6 questions on SelectSmart. LMAO!

"#1 Natural Law Party
#2 Green Party
#3 Christian Heritage Party
#4 Marxist-Leninist Party
#5 Alliance Party
#6 Canadian Action Party
#7 New Democratic Party
#8 Bloc Quebecois
#9 Liberal Party
#10 Progressive Conservative Party "

[minionofmidas]

Why exactly are the Liberals polling that high in the Maritimes right now? Still haven't understood that.

[minionofmidas]

Why exactly are the Liberals polling that high in the Maritimes right now? Still haven't understood that.

National breakdowns for the Martimes are not to be trusted. Will post a lot more on this in that thread where this question was asked a while ago, but for now it's suffice to say that all four provinces are very different from each other... if you oversample PEI or rural Newfies (this seems to happen a lot for some reason)... well you can guess what happens...

Come to think of it, Newfoundland is really weird. The rural-urban split is reversed. I'm not sure that makes any sense. The tories won both of St John's' seats but none of the rural seats.

I think that's an ancient pattern based somewhat on an Irish Catholic -West Country English Protestant split ... although I forget what made the Catholics Tories. I think it was the other way round in the early years of the province. (Newfoundland has had male adult universal suffrage since very early by the way, mostly because any sort of income threshold, even a minimal one, would have ruled out 90-odd% of the population, which in the 18th/early 19th century consisted mostly of subsistence fishermen with next-to-no cash income whatsoever.)

[minionofmidas]

We shall find out in the new year

Here it is the new year and we haven't found out yet.

[minionofmidas]

Tell me again, what date is the election on? Maybe edit it into the thread title or sumpin.

[minionofmidas]

Hehe, cool map.

[minionofmidas]

Safe NDP pickup then?

[minionofmidas]

Sas and Man figures?

[minionofmidas]

Riding poll updates... apparently Leger has the Tories leading the BQ by 42% to 23% in Louis Saint Laurent [in Quebec City]... and now for some more polls published by the La Presse newspaper... (article is HERE for those of you who can read french)...

For those who can't... (my french is quite bad these days, so a cock up is possible...)

In Papineau the Liberals are on 29% and the Bloc 42%, in Outremont the Liberals are on 30%, the Bloc on 27% and the NDP on 20%, in Jeanne le Ber it's 34%/33%, in Brome-Missisquoi the Bloc have 37%, the Liberals 29% and the Tories 21%, in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier some independent has 42% and the Bloc 28%, in Pontiac the Bloc has 30%, the Tories 29% and the Liberals 22%, in Louis Saint Laurent the Tories have 59% and in Beauce the Tories have 57% to the Blocs 28%.

8 polls of 300 people each, moe 6%, percentages recalculated to those who said who they'd vote for (ie, no undecided percentage. ie, like German polls)

Papineau Bloc 42% Lib 29% NDP 13% Con 9%
Outremont Lib 30% Bloc 27% NDP 20%
Jeanne-Le Ber Bloc 34% Lib 33% NDP and Con 23% together, doesn't say about split
Brôme-Missisquoi Bloc 37% Lib 29% Con 21%
Portneuf i 42% Bloc 28%
Beauce Con 57% (!) Bloc 28% that's a Liberal constituency now...
Louis-Saint-Laurent Con 59% (!)
Pontiac Bloc 30% Con 29% Lib 22%

So in other words, all you did is get the lead in Jeanne-Le Ber the wrong way round.

[minionofmidas]

The good news: A good chance of the Liberals becoming the third party.
The bad news: If that happens probably a Conservative MAJORITY government

This is basically my problem.  I think it's time for the Liberals to have a time-out in the corner, but the only other party with any chance of forming a government is the Conservatives.  If we get a Conservative minority, it'll be out within a year.  If we get a Conservative majority... well, we get a Conservative majority, which needs no further explanation.

Canada is basically screwed as far as this election goes.  There is basically no possible good outcome.

Just hope for a good many NDP gains in ridings the Liberals can't win.

[minionofmidas]

Wow NDP is at 20% in Outremont? Makes sense, their candidate is a popular professor.

Has the NDP ever won even a single seat in Québec. If not it's about time it happened now.

[minionofmidas]

Bloc Acadien. Learn French.

[minionofmidas]

Bloc Acadien.

Bah... damn pedant ...

Give me Pedantery or give me Death!