Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

And just when you thought the Liberal government might have an easy time of it, now it looks like same sex marriage might be the issue that brings it down.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/news/national/2005/06/07/martin-samesex050607.html

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is there any chance whatsoever of a Conservative recovery in Quebec this election that could take away enough votes from the BQ to actually cause the Liberals to gain seats there?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's my contribution towards making a fool of myself:

Ridings that are safe to be held by their current party I'll be omitting to save space.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits slight Con gain from Lib
Random—Burin—St. George's prob Lib hold over NDP

If the Bonavista—Exploits switch occurs it will be due more to NDP gains than Conservative gains.  The 2004 results indicate that every NDP leaning tactical voter in the riding went Liberal then to avoid a Conservative win.  I don't think NDP tacticals will mind that as much this time.

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4

Nova Scotia
Lib 5 (-0) Con 4 (+0) NDP 2 (+0)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob Lib hold over NDP
West Nova prob Lib hold over Con

New Brunswick
Lib 7 (-0) Con 2 (+0)  NDP 1 (+0)
Saint John prob Lib hold over Con
Tobique—Mactaquac slight Lib hold over Con

Quebec
BQ 59 (+5) Lib 16 (-5) Con 0 (+0)
Ahuntsic prob BQ gain from Lib
Beauce prob Lib hold over BQ
Brome—Missisquoi prob BQ gain from Lib
Brossard—La Prairie slight Lib hold over BQ
Gatineau prob BQ gain from Lib
Honoré-Mercier  prob Lib hold over BQ
Hull—Aylmer  strong Lib hold over BQ
Jeanne-Le Ber strong BQ gain from Lib
Laval—Les Îles strong Lib hold over BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Nunavik—Eeyou  strong BQ hold over Lib
Outremont  prob Lib hold over BQ
Papineau slight BQ gain from Lib

Ontario
Lib 62 (-13) Con 33 (+9) NDP 11 (+4)
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing strong Lib over NDP
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale slight Con gain from Lib
Barrie prob Con gain from Lib
Brampton West slight Con gain from Lib
Brant slight Con gain from Lib
Burlington slight Lib hold over Con
Chatham-Kent—Essex strong Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP prob gain from Lib
Hamilton Mountain NDP prob gain from Lib
Kenora  Lab slight hold over NDP
Kitchener—Conestoga slight Lib hold over Con
London—Fanshawe prob Lib hold over NDP
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton strong Con gain from Lib
Nickel Belt prob Lib hold over NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming  slight Con gain from Lib
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oshawa prob NDP gain from Con
Ottawa—Orléans prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South strong Lib hold over Con
Ottawa West—Nepeanprob Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob Lib hold over NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka  prob Lib hold over Con
St. Catharines slight Lib hold over Con
Simcoe North slight Lib hold over Con
Thunder Bay—Rainy River strong Lib hold over NDP
Trinity—Spadina strong NDP gain from Lib
Whitby—Oshawa strong Lib hold over Con

If the Libs hold onto  Middlesex—Kent—Lambton  it'll only be because of tactical voting by NDP-ites.

Manitoba
Con 7 NDP 4 Lib 3

Saskatchewan
Con 12(-1) NDP 1 (+1) Lib 1
Palliser slight NDP gain from Con

The potential NDP gain will depend on how disaffected 2004 Liberals go.  I think we'll see some tactical voting from Libs since they have no chance of improving from their strong third place showing in this election in the riding, but I'm not certain which tactics they'll prefer.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont strong Con gain from Lib
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre strong Con gain from Lib

In Crowfoot the NDP will go from number four party to number three as it switches places with the Liberals while the Condervatives will remain the number one and number two parties in the riding. Heck, they could have a three way party split and still win Crowfoot as there are third world dictators who win with less impressive margins than the Tories did in 2004 in Crowfoot

Edmonton—Strathcona  will remain a safe Con riding but the NDP will replace the Libs as the number two party there.

British Columbia
Con 22 (+0) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 4 (-4) Ind 0 (-1)
Dewdney—Alouette  strong Con hold over NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight NDP gain from Lib
Fleetwood—Port Kells strong Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
Nanaimo—Alberni strong Con hold over NDP
Newton—North Delta slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
New Westminster—Coquitlam slight NDP gain from [color-navy]Con[/color]
North Vancouver slight Con gain from Lib
Richmond prob Lib hold over Con
Southern Interior slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
Surrey North safe Con gain
Vancouver Centre prob Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Island North slight NDP gain from Con
Vancouver Kingsway prob NDP gain from Lib
Victoria slight NDP gain from Lib

With Chuck Cadman out of the picture, Surrey North should return to being a safe Conservative riding.

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 110 (+11)
Lib 109 (-26)
BQ 59 (+5)
NDP 30 (+11)
Ind 0 (-1)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's my contribution towards making a fool of myself:

Ah, don't be so hard on yourself
Only one prediction looks... odd...

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Surrey North was never a safe Conservative riding; it's a mix of docks and blue collar suburbs. A sort of Canadian Thurrock (without the more average outer suburbs in a couple of places). Traditionally a strong NDP area and IIRC they got some of their best margins in B.C in the area in the last provincial election.

At the provincial level the area is more friendly to the dippers, but in BC politics is two party between the left wing NDP and the right wing BC Liberal party (no relation to the federal Liberals).  In '93, '97, 2000, and 2004 the main right-wing candidate won easily, thanks in part to the left-wing vote being split between the federal Liberals and the NDP.  I see no reason for that trend to be any different for 2006 in Surrey North.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A few minor changes after considering the Governor's remarks:

Ridings that are safe to be held by their current party I'll be omitting to save space.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits slight Con gain from Lib
Random—Burin—St. George's prob Lib hold over NDP

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4

Nova Scotia
Lib 5 (-0) Con 4 (+0) NDP 2 (+0)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob Lib hold over NDP
West Nova prob Lib hold over Con

New Brunswick
Lib 7 (-0) Con 2 (+0)  NDP 1 (+0)
Saint John prob Lib hold over Con
Tobique—Mactaquac slight Lib hold over Con

Quebec
BQ 59 (+5) Lib 16 (-5) Con 0 (+0)
Ahuntsic prob BQ gain from Lib
Beauce prob Lib hold over BQ
Brome—Missisquoi prob BQ gain from Lib
Brossard—La Prairie slight Lib hold over BQ
Gatineau prob BQ gain from Lib
Honoré-Mercier  prob Lib hold over BQ
Hull—Aylmer  strong Lib hold over BQ
Jeanne-Le Ber strong BQ gain from Lib
Laval—Les Îles strong Lib hold over BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Nunavik—Eeyou  strong BQ hold over Lib
Outremont  prob Lib hold over BQ
Papineau slight BQ gain from Lib

Ontario
Lib 62 (-13) Con 33 (+9) NDP 11 (+4)
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing strong Lib over NDP
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale slight Con gain from Lib
Barrie prob Con gain from Lib
Brampton West slight Con gain from Lib
Brant slight Con gain from Lib
Burlington slight Lib hold over Con
Chatham-Kent—Essex strong Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP prob gain from Lib
Hamilton Mountain NDP prob gain from Lib
Kenora  Lab slight hold over NDP
Kitchener—Conestoga slight Lib hold over Con
London—Fanshawe prob Lib hold over NDP
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton strong Con gain from Lib
Nickel Belt prob Lib hold over NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming  slight Con gain from Lib
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oshawa prob NDP gain from Con
Ottawa—Orléans slight Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South strong Lib hold over Con
Ottawa West—Nepeanprob Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob Lib hold over NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka  prob Lib hold over Con
St. Catharines slight Lib hold over Con
Simcoe North slight Lib hold over Con
Thunder Bay—Rainy River strong Lib hold over NDP
Trinity—Spadina strong NDP gain from Lib
Whitby—Oshawa strong Lib hold over Con

With the misstep by M. Galipeau, I'll reduce the Con chances in Ottawa—Orléans fron prob to slight, but I still favor them.

As for Ottawa Centre, Mahoney already showed in 2004 that he's no Harb, and I think that the NDP made the right choice given the general mood of this election to go with a relative newcomer instead of a oldtimer who lost to Harb.  Maybe if there was a general pro-Liberal sentiment I could see them retaking the seat, but not this election.

Manitoba
Con 7 NDP 3(-1) Lib 4(+1) Ind 0(+0)
Churchill slight Lib gain over Ind from NDP

As for Churchill, now that I've been made aware of that brou-ha-ha, it's clear that the NDP will lose the riding, the only question is will Bev be able to keep the seat.  Mr. Ahmad ran in Churchill before and doesn't have any better chance now than he did then, so I can see socially conservative Tories choosing to vote for Bev to give the NDP a black eye and to attempt to keep the seat from the Libs. Is there any chance that Bev might join the Greens or even the CAP after the election if she wins?  I can't see any chance of her rejoining the NDP, and if she'd wanted to join the Libs she already had ample opportunity.

Selkirk—Interlake will see the NDP do better with the former Gov. Gen., but I don't think it will be enough to defeat the Tories without a massive tactical vote by the Libs, and I don't see that happening.

Saskatchewan
Con 12(-1) NDP 1 (+1) Lib 1
Palliser slight NDP gain from Con.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont strong Con gain from Lib
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain from Lib

British Columbia
Con 22 (+0) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 4 (-4) Ind 0 (-1)
Dewdney—Alouette  strong Con hold over NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight NDP gain from Lib
Fleetwood—Port Kells strong Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
Nanaimo—Alberni strong Con hold over NDP
Newton—North Delta slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
New Westminster—Coquitlam slight NDP gain from Con
North Vancouver slight Con gain from Lib
Richmond prob Lib hold over Con
Southern Interior slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
Surrey North prob Con gain from Ind over NDP
Vancouver Centre prob Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Island North slight NDP gain from Con
Vancouver Kingsway prob NDP gain from Lib
Victoria slight NDP gain from Lib

I've lessened my sureness in Surrey North, but I can't so easily dismiss the strong results of the last four federal elections as to not see that seat favoring the Conservatives.  Maybe if the election had been called just after Cadman's death, but not after half a year.

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 110 (+11)
Lib 110 (-25)
BQ 59 (+5)
NDP 29 (+10)
Ind 0 (-1)

And as long as I'm now predicting a tie, is there any protocol as to who gets to try first to form a government if the top two parties are tied?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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She's still in the NDP IIRC. She's only running as an indy because he lost the nomination race.

According to Wikipedia, she resigned from the NDP caucus when she lost the nomination.  Unless that was purely a formal requirement for her to run as an independent, I'd say she's gone and not going to look back.

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The Conservatives should regain the seat that was lost due to the floor defection.  If it were an election in which the Libs would hold steady or even gain, Stronach would probably keep the seat, but with the Libs losing ground and the Tories gaining, I don't see it.  The Liberal stronghold of the old Vaughan—King—Aurora riding clearly was Vaughan and not Aurora based on the 2004 results.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A few more minor changes:

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits slight Con gain from Lib
Random—Burin—St. George's prob Lib hold over NDP

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4

Nova Scotia
Lib 5 (-0) Con 4 (+0) NDP 2 (+0)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob Lib hold over NDP
West Nova strong Lib hold over Con (was prob)

New Brunswick
Lib 7 (-0) Con 2 (+0)  NDP 1 (+0)
Saint John prob Lib hold over Con
Tobique—Mactaquac slight Lib hold over Con

Quebec
BQ 59 (+5) Lib 16 (-5) Con 0 (+0)
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou strong BQ hold over Lib
Ahuntsic slight BQ gain from Lib (was prob)
Beauce strong Lib hold over BQ (was prob)
Brome—Missisquoi slight BQ gain from Lib (was prob)
Brossard—La Prairie prob Lib hold over BQ (was slight)
Gatineau slight BQ gain from Lib (was prob)
Honoré-Mercier strong Lib hold over BQ (was prob)
Hull—Aylmer safe Lib hold over BQ (was strong)
Jeanne-Le Ber prob BQ gain from Lib (was strong)
Laval—Les Îles safe Lib hold over BQ (was strong)
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Outremont  prob Lib hold over BQ
Papineau slight BQ gain from Lib

The changes here are more a reflection that I'm less certain of BQ strength than I was when I last looked at these than anything else.

Ontario
Lib 60 (-15) Con 34 (+10) NDP 12 (+5)
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob Lib over NDP (was strong)
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale slight Con gain from Lib
Barrie prob Con gain from Lib
Brampton West slight Con gain from Lib
Brant slight Con gain from Lib
Burlington slight Lib hold over Con
Chatham-Kent—Essex strong Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek prob NDP gain from Lib
Hamilton Mountain prob NDP gain from Lib
Kenora slight NDP gain from Lab (was slight Lib hold)
Kitchener—Conestoga slight Lib hold over Con
London—Fanshawe prob Lib hold over NDP
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton strong Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora prob Con hold over Lib (from safe)
Nickel Belt prob Lib hold over NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming prob Con gain from Lib (was slight)
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oshawa prob NDP gain from Con
Ottawa—Orléans slight Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South strong Lib hold over Con
Ottawa West—Nepean prob Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob Lib hold over NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka  slight Lib hold over Con (was prob)
St. Catharines slight Lib hold over Con
Simcoe North slight Con gain from Lib (was slight Lib hold)
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Lib hold over NDP (was strong)
Thunder Bay—Superior North strong Lib hold over NDP (was safe)
Trinity—Spadina strong NDP gain from Lib
Whitby—Oshawa strong Lib hold over Con
Welland strong Lib hold over NDP (was safe)

Before the right wing split the Newmarket—Aurora area was safely Conservative and with that breach healed, I see no reason for it not to be safe now save for the incumbent.  Still, with this being a down election for the Libs, I can't see Stronach keeping her seat.

The change in Welland is due to the fact that with the Tories firmly in third place there in 2004, I think the NDP is likely to post better than average gains there as NDP leaning voters who voted tactically for the Libs in 2004 are likely to come home.  Doubtful that it will be enough for the dipper to gain the riding, but it's enough that I'm taking it out of my safe seat list.

The other change are due to my adjusting the NDP chances in Northern Ontario upwards

Manitoba
Con 7 NDP 3(-1) Lib 4(+1) Ind 0(+0)
Churchill slight Lib gain over Ind from NDP

Saskatchewan
Con 12(-1) NDP 1 (+1) Lib 1
Palliser slight NDP gain from Con.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont strong Con gain from Lib
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain from Lib

British Columbia
Con 22 (+0) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 4 (-4) Ind 0 (-1)
Dewdney—Alouette  strong Con hold over NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight NDP gain from Lib
Fleetwood—Port Kells strong Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
Nanaimo—Alberni strong Con hold over NDP
Newton—North Delta slight Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
New Westminster—Coquitlam slight NDP gain from Con
North Vancouver slight Con gain from Lib
Richmond prob Lib hold over Con
Skeena—Bulkley Valley strong NDP hold over Con (was safe)
Southern Interior slight Con hold over NDP
Surrey North prob Con gain from Ind over NDP
Vancouver Centre prob Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Island North slight NDP gain from Con
Vancouver Kingsway prob NDP gain from Lib
Victoria slight NDP gain from Lib

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 111 (+12)
Lib 108 (-27)
BQ 59 (+5)
NDP 30 (+11)
Ind 0 (-1)

Net change from my last prediction is I have the Dippers and the Torries both getting one more seat from the Grits.  If my result is correct, we may end up having a second 2006 Canadian election unless the Grits and Torries are willing to try a Grand Coalition ala Angela Merkel.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Newmarket-Aurora is Belinda territory!!!

Is there anything beyond your gut feeling to back that assertion?  Looking at past election results it's a natural Tory area that the Libs only manged to win during the right-wing split and it appears to be an election in which the Tories will gain seats and the Grits will lose seats.  I'll grant that without Belinda the Grits wouldn't have any chance but unless someone has released a riding specific poll, I can't see changing my prediction any further.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A considerable rethink in light of the apparent Liberal collapse over the past week:

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space. Also, all safe seat gains are from the Libs.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits safe Con gain
Labrador prob Lib hold over Con
Random—Burin—St. George's slight Lib hold over NDP

(Slight edits in response to Earl's post below.)

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4 (-0) Con 0 (+0)
Charlottetown strong Lib hold over Con
Malpeque prob Lib hold over Con

Nova Scotia
Con 5 (+1) Lib 3 (-2) NDP 3 (+1)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob NDP gain from Lib
Kings—Hants prob Lib hold over Con
West Nova prob Con gain from Lib

New Brunswick
Con 5 (+3) Lib 4 (-3) NDP 1
Fredericton prob Con gain from Lib
Miramichi prob Lib hold over Con
Saint John safe Con gain
Tobique—Mactaquac strong Con gain from Lib

Quebec
BQ 63 (+9) Lib 11 (-10) Con 1 (+1)
Ahuntsic safe BQ gain
Beauce safe BQ gain
Bourassa prob Lib hold over BQ
Brome—Missisquoi safe BQ gain
Brossard—La Prairie slight BQ gain from Lib
Gatineau safe BQ gain
Honoré-Mercier slight BQ gain from Lib
Hull—Aylmer slight Lib hold over BQ
Jeanne-Le Ber safe BQ gain
Laval—Les Îles slight Lib hold over BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Outremont prob BQ gain from Lib
Papineau safe BQ gain
Pontiac slight Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)

The changes reflect just the national numbers, once I get a chance to look at Quebec specific numbers they'll likely change some more.

Ontario
Con 60 (+36) Lib 28 (-43) NDP 14 (+7)
Ajax—Pickering slight Con gain from Lib
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob NDP gain from Lib
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale safe Con gain
Barrie safe Con gain
Bramalea—Gore—Malton slight Lib hold over Con
Brampton West safe Con gain
Brant safe Con gain
Burlington safe Con gain
Chatham-Kent—Essex safe Con gain
Davenport prob Lib hold over NDP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore slight Con gain from Lib
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell prob Con gain from Lib
Guelph strong Lib hold over Con
Halton prob Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek safe NDP gain
Hamilton Mountain prob Con gain from Lib
Huron—Bruce slight Con gain from Lib
Kenora slight Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)
Kitchener Centre slight Lib hold over Con
Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain
London—Fanshawe prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib}
London North Centre prob Con gain from Lib
London West strong Con gain from Lib
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton safe Con gain
Mississauga South prob Con gain from Lib
Mississauga—Streetsville slight Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora safe Con regain from Belinda
Nickel Belt slight NDP gain from Lib
Nipissing—Timiskaming safe Con gain
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oak Ridges—Markham prob Con gain from Lib
Oakville strong Con gain from Lib
Oshawa strong Con hold over NDP
Ottawa—Orléans safe Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa West—Nepean safe Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob NDP gain from Lib
Parry Sound—Muskoka prob Con gain from Lib
Peterborough prob Con gain from Lib
St. Catharines safe Con gain
Sarnia—Lambton prob Con gain from Lib
Simcoe North safe Con gain
prob NDP gain from Lib
Thornhill slight Con gain from Lib
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Con gain over NDP  (was held by Lib)
Thunder Bay—Superior North prob NDP gain from Lib
Trinity—Spadina safe NDP gain
Whitby—Oshawa strong Con gain from Lib
Welland prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)

Manitoba
Con 9 (+2) NDP 3(-1) Lib 1(-2) Ind 1(+1)
Churchill slight Ind gain over Lib from NDP
Saint Boniface slight Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South prob Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South Centre prob Lib hold over Con

Saskatchewan
Con 13 Lib 1

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont safe Con gain
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain

British Columbia
Con 22 (+2) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 2 (-6) Ind 0 (-1)
Burnaby—Douglas strong NDP hold over Con
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca prob NDP gain from Lib
New Westminster—Coquitlam strong Con hold over NDP
North Vancouver safe Con gain
Richmond prob Con gain from Lib
Skeena—Bulkley Valley prob NDP hold over Con
Southern Interior prob NDP gain from Con
Surrey North strong Con gain over NDP from Ind
Vancouver Centre prob NDP gain from Lib
Vancouver Island North prob Con hold over NDP
Vancouver Kingsway safe NDP gain
Vancouver South slight Lib hold over Con
Victoria strong NDP gain from Lib

(Southern Interior editted in response to the smuggling charge)

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 147 (+48)
Lib 65 (-70)
BQ 63 (+9)
NDP 32 (+13)
Ind 1 (-0)

This does not look good for Martin.  When looking at these races I actually handicapped the Tories slightly compared to their latest poll numbers. It's quite conceivable that Canada could have a Conservative majority with the BQ as the official opposition unless the Grits and the Dippers unite to from a coalition opposition.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ernest, there is no way in hell Random—Burin—St. George's is going NDP. They only did well last time because of the candidate (Des McGrath) who will not be running this time.

Hard to tell from a distance, but I will note that the last two times the NDP held a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador, it was during Conservative governments which is what this looks to be shaping up to be. The riding was redrawn for 2004, and the neighboring ridings saw declines in NDP support from what the projected redistributed 2000 vote would indicate, so I don't think the 2004 result can be attributed solely to Des McGrath.  Still, I'll lower the NDP chances there so that Random—Burin—St. George's is a Lib slight hold instead of a NDP slight gain.  I've also taken a closer look at Labrador and I'm going to change that from safe Lib hold to prob Lib hold over Con now that I've looked at more than the 2000 results there.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Labrador is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country.

Considering that even tho I projecting the Grits to lose over half their seats and Labrador isn't one of their expected losses, I don't totally disagree with you, but between the 2005 by-election result there and the fact that at the provincial level, the NDP hold Labrador West, I can't see it as being totally safe for the Libs.  The Libs should keep Labrador, but it's not a seat I see as being one of their safest.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any good Quebec polls?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Another rethink to account for regional effects (hopefully):

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space. Also, all safe seat gains are from the Libs.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 3 (-2) Con 3 (+1) NDP 1 (+1)
Bonavista—Exploits safe Con gain
Labrador prob Lib hold over Con
Random—Burin—St. George's slight NDP gain from Lib

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4 (-0) Con 0 (+0)
Cardigan strong Lib hold over Con
Charlottetown prob Lib hold over Con
Malpeque slight Lib hold over Con

Nova Scotia
Con 5 (+1) Lib 3 (-2) NDP 3 (+1)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour strong NDP gain from Lib
Halifax West strong Lib hold over NDP
Kings—Hants slight Lib hold over Con
Sydney—Victoria strong Lib hold over NDP
West Nova strong Con gain from Lib

New Brunswick
Con 5 (+3) Lib 4 (-3) NDP 1
Fredericton strong Con gain from Lib
Madawaska—Restigouche prob Lib hold over Con and NDP
Miramichi slight Lib hold over Con
Saint John safe Con gain
Tobique—Mactaquac safe Con gain

Quebec
BQ 64 (+10) Lib 9 (-12) Con 2 (+2)
Ahuntsic safe BQ gain
Beauce safe BQ gain
Bourassa slight BQ gain from Lib
Brome—Missisquoi safe BQ gain
Brossard—La Prairie strong BQ gain from Lib
Gatineau safe BQ gain
Honoré-Mercier strong BQ gain from Lib
Hull—Aylmer prob BQ gain from Lib
Jeanne-Le Ber safe BQ gain
Laval—Les Îles slight Lib hold over BQ
Lévis—Bellechasse strong BQ hold over Con
Louis-Saint-Laurent  slight Con gain from BQ
Outremont safe BQ gain
Papineau safe BQ gain
Pontiac strong Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)
Portneuf strong BQ hold over Con

Ontario
Con 60 (+36) Lib 28 (-43) NDP 14 (+7)
Ajax—Pickering slight Con gain from Lib
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob NDP gain from Lib
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale safe Con gain
Barrie safe Con gain
Bramalea—Gore—Malton slight Lib hold over Con
Brampton West safe Con gain
Brant safe Con gain
Burlington safe Con gain
Chatham-Kent—Essex safe Con gain
Davenport prob Lib hold over NDP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore slight Con gain from Lib
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell prob Con gain from Lib
Guelph strong Lib hold over Con
Halton prob Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek safe NDP gain
Hamilton Mountain prob Con gain from Lib
Huron—Bruce slight Con gain from Lib
Kenora slight Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)
Kitchener Centre slight Lib hold over Con
Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain
London—Fanshawe prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib}
London North Centre prob Con gain from Lib
London West strong Con gain from Lib
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton safe Con gain
Mississauga South prob Con gain from Lib
Mississauga—Streetsville slight Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora safe Con regain from Belinda
Nickel Belt slight NDP gain from Lib
Nipissing—Timiskaming safe Con gain
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oak Ridges—Markham prob Con gain from Lib
Oakville strong Con gain from Lib
Oshawa strong Con hold over NDP
Ottawa—Orléans safe Con gain
Ottawa South prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa West—Nepean safe Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob NDP gain from Lib
Parry Sound—Muskoka prob Con gain from Lib
Peterborough prob Con gain from Lib
St. Catharines safe Con gain
Sarnia—Lambton prob Con gain from Lib
Simcoe North safe Con gain
prob NDP gain from Lib
Thornhill slight Con gain from Lib
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Con gain over NDP  (was held by Lib)
Thunder Bay—Superior North prob NDP gain from Lib
Trinity—Spadina safe NDP gain
Whitby—Oshawa strong Con gain from Lib
Welland prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)

Manitoba
Con 9 (+2) NDP 3(-1) Lib 1(-2) Ind 1(+1)
Churchill slight Ind gain over Lib from NDP
Saint Boniface slight Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South prob Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South Centre prob Lib hold over Con

Saskatchewan
Con 13 Lib 1

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont safe Con gain
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain

British Columbia
Con 22 (+2) Lib 8 (-0) NDP 4 (-1) Ind 0 (-1)
Burnaby—Douglas slight NDP hold over Lib
Burnaby—New Westminster Lib slight gain from NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight Lib hold over NDP
New Westminster—Coquitlam strong Con hold over NDP
North Vancouver prob Con gain from Lib
Richmond slight Lib hold over Con
Skeena—Bulkley Valley prob Con gain from NDP
Southern Interior prob NDP gain from Con
Surrey North strong Con gain over NDP from Ind
Vancouver Centre slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Kingsway slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver South prob Lib hold over Con
Victoria slight Lib hold over NDP

Taking a look at the regionals really affected my view of the BC races.  It's not so much that the Libs are strong here, because they're not, but they don't seem to be any weaker here than in 2004.  It looks like BC will keep intact its tradition of being out of step with the rest of Canada by having the Grits gain at least one riding they don't currently hold here.

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 148 (+49)
Lib 68 (-67)
BQ 64 (+10)
NDP 27 (+8)
Ind 1 (-0)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Taking into account the latest polls from Quebec and Churchill:

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space. Also, all safe seat gains are from the Libs.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 3 (-2) Con 3 (+1) NDP 1 (+1)
Bonavista—Exploits safe Con gain
Labrador prob Lib hold over Con
Random—Burin—St. George's slight NDP gain from Lib

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4 (-0) Con 0 (+0)
Cardigan strong Lib hold over Con
Charlottetown prob Lib hold over Con
Malpeque slight Lib hold over Con

Nova Scotia
Con 5 (+1) Lib 3 (-2) NDP 3 (+1)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour strong NDP gain from Lib
Halifax West strong Lib hold over NDP
Kings—Hants slight Lib hold over Con
Sydney—Victoria strong Lib hold over NDP
West Nova strong Con gain from Lib

New Brunswick
Con 5 (+3) Lib 4 (-3) NDP 1
Fredericton strong Con gain from Lib
Madawaska—Restigouche prob Lib hold over Con and NDP
Miramichi slight Lib hold over Con
Saint John safe Con gain
Tobique—Mactaquac safe Con gain

Quebec
BQ 62 (+8) Lib 9 (-12) Con 3 (+3) Ind 1(+1)
Ahuntsic safe BQ gain
Beauce safe Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)
Bourassa slight BQ gain from Lib
Brome—Missisquoi safe BQ gain
Brossard—La Prairie strong BQ gain from Lib
Gatineau safe BQ gain
Honoré-Mercier strong BQ gain from Lib
Hull—Aylmer prob BQ gain from Lib
Jeanne-Le Ber slight BQ gain from Lib
Laval—Les Îles slight Lib hold over BQ
Lévis—Bellechasse strong BQ hold over Con
Louis-Saint-Laurent  safe Con gain from BQ
Outremont prob BQ gain over Lib
Papineau safe BQ gain
Pontiac slight Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)
Portneuf prob Ind gain from BQ

Ontario
Con 60 (+36) Lib 28 (-43) NDP 14 (+7)
Ajax—Pickering slight Con gain from Lib
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob NDP gain from Lib
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale safe Con gain
Barrie safe Con gain
Bramalea—Gore—Malton slight Lib hold over Con
Brampton West safe Con gain
Brant safe Con gain
Burlington safe Con gain
Chatham-Kent—Essex safe Con gain
Davenport prob Lib hold over NDP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore slight Con gain from Lib
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell prob Con gain from Lib
Guelph strong Lib hold over Con
Halton prob Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek safe NDP gain
Hamilton Mountain prob Con gain from Lib
Huron—Bruce slight Con gain from Lib
Kenora slight Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)
Kitchener Centre slight Lib hold over Con
Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain
London—Fanshawe prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib}
London North Centre prob Con gain from Lib
London West strong Con gain from Lib
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton safe Con gain
Mississauga South prob Con gain from Lib
Mississauga—Streetsville slight Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora safe Con regain from Belinda
Nickel Belt slight NDP gain from Lib
Nipissing—Timiskaming safe Con gain
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oak Ridges—Markham prob Con gain from Lib
Oakville strong Con gain from Lib
Oshawa strong Con hold over NDP
Ottawa—Orléans safe Con gain
Ottawa South prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa West—Nepean safe Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob NDP gain from Lib
Parry Sound—Muskoka prob Con gain from Lib
Peterborough prob Con gain from Lib
St. Catharines safe Con gain
Sarnia—Lambton prob Con gain from Lib
Simcoe North safe Con gain
Sudbury prob NDP gain from Lib
Thornhill slight Con gain from Lib
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Con gain over NDP  (was held by Lib)
Thunder Bay—Superior North prob NDP gain from Lib
Trinity—Spadina safe NDP gain
Whitby—Oshawa strong Con gain from Lib
Welland prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)

Manitoba
Con 9 (+2) NDP 4(-0) Lib 1(-2) Ind 0(+0)
Churchill prob NDP hold over Lib (strong hold over Ind)
Saint Boniface slight Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South prob Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South Centre prob Lib hold over Con

Saskatchewan
Con 13 Lib 1

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont safe Con gain
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain

British Columbia
Con 22 (+2) Lib 8 (-0) NDP 4 (-1) Ind 0 (-1)
Burnaby—Douglas slight NDP hold over Lib
Burnaby—New Westminster Lib slight gain from NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight Lib hold over NDP
New Westminster—Coquitlam strong Con hold over NDP
North Vancouver prob Con gain from Lib
Richmond slight Lib hold over Con
Skeena—Bulkley Valley prob Con gain from NDP
Southern Interior prob NDP gain from Con
Surrey North strong Con gain over NDP from Ind
Vancouver Centre slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Kingsway slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver South prob Lib hold over Con
Victoria slight Lib hold over NDP

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 149 (+50)
Lib 68 (-67)
BQ 62 (+8)
NDP 28 (+9)
Ind 1 (+0)

(editted to restore name of Sudbury)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does anyone else think that this reeks of desperation?

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/martin-layton.html

Yes, but then the Liberals are in desperate straits.  If they collapse any farther they could end up in fourth place behind the NDP.  While I doubt if they will, it would be the beginning of the end for the Liberals if it did happen and they have to know it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain

Why?

Assuming just an average vote swing for Ontario based on the latest polls, it'll easily go Tory.  Provincially, Waterloo—Wellington (which is the core of what was redrawn as Kitchener—Conestoga) was so safely Conservative that it stayed in Tory hands despite their 2003 Ontario collapse. I can't see Myer's incumbency saving him this election unless the Liberals do impossibly better than expected.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Regardless of the slight inaccuracy regarding the position of Layton and Duceppe (at least in terms of projected number of seats), I feel absolutely compelled to post this here for comic relief.

For a while there, it looked like the major inaccuacy would be the positions of Layton and Martin, and who knows, it could still be.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Putting that into Eastern Time for those who don't want to have to deal with six different time zones.

Newfoundland closes its polls at 7PM ET, the rest of the matitimes a half hour later at 7:30, most of Canada at 9:30, and BC and Yukon trail the pack at 10:00.

We probably won't see the first riding called until around 9PM ET or so.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

C-SPAN is scheduled to start simulcasting the CBC at 9:30 ET, so unless they're going to just talk for a half hour, results should be easily available via that source starting then.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I haven't seen anything since Tuesday to cause me to change my prediction so I'll stick with it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

The Liberals won a majority in the 1980 election.  I think you're thinking of the 1984 election, in which the Conservatives won a much larger victory than they're likely to get in this election.  The country wasn't demolished after that election; somehow I get the sense it will survive this one.

I suspect the 1980 election that Pym was referring to was the American election, not the Canadian.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ballot box busted open in Central Nova riding.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The right wing fractured in two in 1993 and it only rejoined for the 2004 election.