Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the election isn't this year I'll have to change the title

Basically this is the polls, links, analysis etc. thread for the next Canadian election (likely in either a few weeks or a few months).

And yes I will sticky it. I'm nice really

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html is a good site to try. Can be quite fun.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos-Reid poll (released 14th May).

Canada

CPC: 31 (n/c)
LPC: 27 (-5)
NDP: 19 (+3)

Ontario
The Conservative Party 34% +1
The Liberals 32% -12
The NDP 22% +5
The Green Party 8% +4

Quebec
The Conservative Party 10% -1
The Liberals 15% -5
The NDP 11% -1
The Bloc Quebecois 56% +6
The Green Party 4% 0

British Columbia

The Conservative Party 31% +4
The Liberals 32% +2
The NDP 23% -2
The Green Party 12% -3

Alberta
The Conservative Party 59% -4
The Liberals 24% +4
The NDP 11% +6
The Green Party 5% -1

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
The Conservative Party 36% -16
The Liberals 28% +7
The NDP 28% +5
The Green Party 5% +4

Atlantic Canada
The Conservative Party 34% +2
The Liberals 35% -10
The NDP 27% +10
The Green Party 0% -3  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, their Saskatchewan predictions depress me too much.

They're track record on Sask... is... not good. Mind you, voting patterns out there have been so fickle of late it's hardly suprising.
Interestingly the NDP have been gaining in Manitoba/Sask in most pre-election polls this time round (see above). It'll be interesting to see if that stays.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Guess I'll have to do a prediction like my U.K one... and if it's anything like that I'll do very well in some areas, fairly well in most areas and very badly in one or two areas

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

Challenge accepted. I've made one prediction so far (not up yet) for a certain riding on a large island west of Vancouver. Should be easy to spot when it's up

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New polls out:

Environics: LPC 33, CPC 31, NDP 22, BQ 10

By region:

Atlantic: LPC 43, CPC 30, NDP 25
Quebec: BQ 45, LPC 21, NDP 16, CPC 16
Ontario: LPC 40, CPC 32, NDP 24
Praries: CPC 52, LPC 27, NDP 19
BC: LPC 35, CPC 30, NDP 29

Poll done 4 or so days ago. Note that Alberta is classed as in the Praries

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And an even newer poll... with lots and lots of breakdown stuff...

EKOS/Toronto Star

National: LPC 35, CPC 28, NDP 18, BQ 13, Grn 6
-------------------
Atlantic: LPC 43, CPC 29, NDP 25, Grn 4
Quebec: BQ 54, LPC 20, CPC 13, NDP 10, Grn 1
Ontario: LPC 45, CPC 30, NDP 18, Grn 8
Prairies: CPC 37, NDP 30, LPC 28, Grn 3
Alberta: CPC 52, LPC 28, NDP 15, Grn 6
BC: LPC 36, NDP 28, CPC 27, Grn 9
-------------------
Some interesting demographic snippits:

*Liberals have an 11pt lead over the Tories with women, by lead by just 1pt with men
*Liberals lead in all age groups, but are strongest with elderly voters. CPC also strongest with elderly voters. NDP strongest with middle aged voters. Greenies and BQ strongest with younger voters.
*Liberals strongest income group is over $100k (48%), but they're weakest income group is $60-79k (26%) and reasonable level (hovering around 30 give or take MoE) with other groups. Tories strongest income group is $60-79k (36%).
*Tories in fourth place with those earning under 20k (LPC 29, NDP 25, BQ 18, CPC 17).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I guess on those figures, the Liberals would get back in with another minority of roughly the same size, right?

Hard to tell... so many seats were so close last time (but if those Prairies and BC figures hold that could work against the Tories as well) and then there's the Quebec collapse... by the looks of those numbers, the Liberals could be reduced to West Island Montreal only...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos Reid:

National: LPC 34 (+7), CPC 28 (-3), NDP 17 (-2)

Some very odd regional results. Not sure if it marks a big change, or if it's a load of statistical blips:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other than the huge changes? Well... take a look at the Atlantic numbers for one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Huge changes could be based on irregularities- like different polling firms.

True. And the massive MoE's. Like I said it could just be a load of statistical blips.

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1997 was a backlash to EI cuts and the collapse of the areas primary industries (and economic base), but yes, the area is prone to big swings.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Grewal tapes were altered – forensic physicist

At the request of the Canadian Press (CP), Canada’s multimedia news agency, a top forensic sound analyst studied Grewal’s secretly recorded tapes and told CP that a conversation has been altered.
 
It appears a 46 second section of a conversation between Grewal and Dosanjh has an abnormal break indicating that a portion has been edited out.

Pausak, a physicist and MIT trained forensic scientist says "It appears to be altered. This brief segment at the beginning shows that it's not continuous, and it should be."

Pasauk identified a discontinuity where he confronted a zero-signal gap of about 0.3 seconds and then the conversation resumed.

The tapes have created a controversy within Parliament. Dosanjh, one of two Liberals that were secretly recorded by Grewal, has contended the tapes were altered because sections are missing by his recollection of how the conversation progressed.

In addition, half of the Conservative caucus apparently is opposed to making secret recordings, and have shown disdain for Grewal’s actions, some suggest Grewal’s career could be at risk.

Suspicion surrounding the authenticity of the recordings grew following Grewal's release of only portions of conversations. Fourteen days elapsed before the entire tapes were made public.

Repeatedly addressing the media Grewal claimed he was approached by the Liberals but this has been contradicted by Sudesh Kalia, a member of the Liberal Party, who says it’s the other way around. Kalia was approached by Grewal to propose a deal to jump parties in return for a cabinet post.

Since Kalia’s revelation Grewal has been relatively silent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The poll in question: Lib 37/Con 23/NDP 21 is by Decima Research and was published yesterday, not sure who for. Can't find any breakdowns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fairly recent Ipsos Reid poll

Ontario:
Conservative Party - 31%
Liberals - 44% *****
NDP - 16%
Green Party - 7%

Quebec:
Conservative Party - 9%
Liberals - 22%
NDP - 12%
Bloc Quebecois - 51% *****
Green Party - 4%

British Columbia:
Conservative Party - 29%
Liberals - 35% *****
NDP - 23%
Green Party - 11%

Alberta:
Conservative Party - 60% *****
Liberals - 19%
NDP - 10%
Green Party - 10%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Conservative Party - 33%
Liberals - 35% *****
NDP - 27%
Green Party - 3%

Atlantic Canada
Conservative Party - 38%
Liberals - 42% *****
NDP - 17%
Green Party - 0%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP really should be gaining ground in Ontario from the Liberals, not losing ground as a whole. Lunatic strategic voting.

Siege

The good news is the slow and seemingly longterm rise in the Prairies; Saskatchewan could do anything this election (and yes, that exact statement about Sask could have been said at every Federal election since 1993...) and if the Dippers can poll what they're polling in the polls now come election, they could pick up a decent haul of seats there.
Or they could f*** up like last time...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Think the Libs will gain seats in the Winter 05-06 election?

I've really no idea... I think they could do in BC but I don't know about everywhere else.
Things are seriously confusing...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No new polls from any reputable firm recently. Will update when one is finally published... I think Environics might have one out soon

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, but that was by Pollara

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll have a go at that when I've had some sleeeeeep...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have a point about the 905 ridings (something that also showed up in the last provincial elections. PC's lost some seats where they'd cracked 60% in 1999 from what I recall) but that might just be another case of affluent suburban voters in the main suburban belt shifting away from strong support for the conservative party of record, towards a much more fickle and unpredictable stance; if the Liberals lose nationally they'll probably suffer a near wipe-out in the 905 ridings.
The exceptions would be places where the demographics have changed completely in just a few years; Markham is the best example of that, but there are others.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But anyways, in other news NDP MP Bev Desjarlais has become an independent after losing her nomination battle. I am somewhat disappointed at the NDP for forcing her out like that. It's actions like these that make me dislike Paul Martin. But now the NDP?

Not suprising. Is she going to retire or run as an Indie? If the former the NDP should be able to keep the seat fairly easily (she's never been popular outside Flin Flon IIRC), if the latter a weird result like it's twin seat in Sask is pretty likely.
The tendency for parties to force wayward members out is probably the least appealing aspect of Canadian politics and has been for years (although the system of patronage appointments is pretty bad as well).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She will be running as an independent. If what you say about Flin Flon is true, that is certainly good news for the NDP.

I'll have to check, but I'm fairly sure I'm right about that... she nearly lost to a terrible Liberal candidate last election (well known, yes... but with a lot of baggage), btw.

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Not sure about most... but most of the ones that last more than one term do.

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Perhaps; I think it'll depend on the demographics. Places like Markham or Vaughan are probably Liberal for a looooong time now. Not sure about some of the other areas.
As for Toronto... maybe one of the Etobicoke seats?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Etobicoke? Heaven's no, the only chance the tories have in Toronto is Don Mills West, I think- one of the richest if not the richest ridings in Canada. I don't know about Etobicoke Centre, but I know the north is the infamous Rexdale neighbourhood, and the south is deffinitely more left leaning.

So local politics doesn't follow national politics in Toronto much either? 'Cos I know that Etobicoke votes for conservative types in city council elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know how much this helps, but I am willing to break down the Churchill riding 2004 results by community.

Liberal:
Lac Brochet, Brochet, Pukatawagan, Leaf Rapids, Fox Lake, Shamattawa, Oxford House, Clearwater Lake, Opaskwayak, Moose Lake, Norway House, Waasagomach, Garden Hill, Red Sucker Lake, Island Lake, Poplar River, Barens River, Little Grand Rapids, Little Black River, Fort Alexander

NDP:
Tadoule Lake, Churchill, South Indian Lake, Lynn Lake, Nelson House, Wabowden, Thompson, Thicket Portage, Pikwitonei, York Landing, Split Lake, Ilford, Gillam, Gods Lake Narrows, Cross Lake, Sherridon, Cranberry Portage, Snow Lake, Flin Flon, Wanless, Cormorant, Umpherville, The Pas, Youngs Point, Easterville, Grand Rapids, Pauingassi First Nation, Bloodvein, Hollow Water, Manigotagan

Tie (Liberal & NDP):
Gods River

Conservative:
Paint Lake, Pasquia Settlement, Ralls Island, Bissett

By the looks of that Desjarlais won in the towns, but generally did pretty badly in the rest of the riding... now that's probably good news for the NDP candidate but you can never really tell with these northern ridings. Two things that would make it hard for the NDP to win it back would be if Desjarlais turned it into a referendum on gay marriage (probably her only chance of winning, so she'll probably try that) or if "the man that killed Meech Lake" runs again...

===
As a question, why are Canadian parties so intolerant of MP's that dissent from the party line? Only comparable thing over here I can think of right now is all those Right Labour M.P's being deselected in the Bennite surge in the early '80's.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I noticed how Indian reserves were quite strange. Many voted overwhelmingly Liberal (like 90% which is common in many indian reserves) while the NDP won some Indian reserves too. It must be where she campaigned I guess. However, I didnt look up these towns to see if they were reserves or not, I just looked at the names, and made assumptions.

The 90% Liberal ones were presumably the ones in Ron Evans's pocket; I'd guess the NDP ones were straight-ticket places. Out of interest, do you have the same sort of breakdown for Churchill River, SK?

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Not really; the Whips scream at them a lot, but leaderships generally stay well clear of deselecting wayward members (even ones, like Corbyn, which they could probably pull off without too many tears)... it's just too risky.

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Does it have anything to do with the pretty rough nature of early Canadian politics?