Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Hatman 🍁]

Guess I'll have to do a prediction like my U.K one... and if it's anything like that I'll do very well in some areas, fairly well in most areas and very badly in one or two areas

What the? Didn't notice this thread until now. Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

On a personal note, I think I will work on the campaign of whoever the NDP candidate is in Ottawa Centre, since the NDP doesn't have much of a hope here in the south. (I may not even vote for them- depends on the candidate).

Speaking of my riding, the Conservatives will be nominating former MP Barry Turner.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

Challenge accepted. I've made one prediction so far (not up yet) for a certain riding on a large island west of Vancouver. Should be easy to spot when it's up

I don't know much about Taiwanese politics

Anyways, I've been doing so reading, and it doesn't look to likely that the budget will fail.

See this article: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/cpress/20050518/ca_pr_on_na/liberals_confidence_vote_2

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos Reid:

National: LPC 34 (+7), CPC 28 (-3), NDP 17 (-2)

Some very odd regional results. Not sure if it marks a big change, or if it's a load of statistical blips:

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What's so odd about that (other than tories down in Quebec)?

[Hatman 🍁]

Other than the huge changes? Well... take a look at the Atlantic numbers for one.

Huge changes could be based on irregularities- like different polling firms. Atlantic Canada is really a big swing are in my opinion - especially Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. Just look at 1993 and 1997.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

Yes, that translates to about approximately 0 seats

[Hatman 🍁]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

Yes, that translates to about approximately 0 seats

0 to 2, I'd say. But if they keep up this growth rate, they'll be the majority there in two years time!

2? Where pray tell would they win a second seat? I can see *maybe* Edmonton-Strathcona, but I can't see a 2nd riding. They have never won more than 1 riding in Alberta I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey -  the increase has to come from somewhere. I hope they don*t gain uniformly again...disproportionate gains from First Nations might put Athapasca (sp?) on the agenda...

Not sure about Athabasca. Fort McMurray dominates the riding, and while I've never been there or know much about the city, i think it's very conservative. I think the NDP would have to win more than 4 seats provincially to get more than 0 federally. By the way- all 4 NDP seats in Alberta are in Edmonton.

[Hatman 🍁]

You're probably right of course, I`m not denying that at all. You know that?

Rule #1: I'm always right

So, do you have any predictions up your sleeve? I know the election is likely 10 months away, but it is still fun!

[Hatman 🍁]

Prediction: Despite the predictions of pundits and hopeful New Democrats such as myself the NDP only pick up 3 seats nation wide bringing them to 22.

Siege

That's quite possible, but if you look at the numbers, it would be difficult. Remember: the NDP lost 12 seats by less than 1,000 votes. Also, Paul Martin had a big influence in those 12 seats not going NDP. I think the NDP can easily win 30+ seats. Where it won't happen is every province but Ontario and B.C. and NWT. (and maybe Saskatchewan)

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey, did you hear Landry has decided to step down as PQ leader. That means Duceppe may replace him. Very interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Did any of you hear the recent poll numbers?

Liberals - 38%
Conservatives  - 23%
NDP - 21%

OUCH

[Hatman 🍁]

Did any of you hear the recent poll numbers?

Liberals - 38%
Conservatives  - 23%
NDP - 21%

OUCH

Whoa!! That translates into about 140 Liberals right!! The Tories are still angry though...

I think that's close to a majority for the Liberals- may 150 or 155 seats. That's about 70-80 seats for the tories and around 40 for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

The poll also showed the NDP in #2 place in Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

The poll also showed the NDP in #2 place in Ontario.

Sadly, I'm beginning to doubt the accuracy of this poll now...

Siege

LOL, obviously. It's Decima research! They tend to overstate the NDP. Ipsos-Reid I find is the most accurate.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a poll earlier this month that had this info

Liberals   38%         Conservatives 27%     NDP    15%

http://www.jord.ca is a good website for % to seat data on polls

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, but that was by Pollara

What's wrong with Pollara? Those seem like perfectly reasonable poll numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canadians are friggin scared of Conservatives

Anyways, to answer the NDP question.

A lot of it has to do with the size of ridings. The federal ridings can be too big for an NDPer to win, when they may be concentrated to a few neighbourhoods or communties. Another reason is, the variance of NDPers nation wide. Saskatchewan dippers may not like the Jack Layton city slicker, and city folks may not like someone from Saskatchewan. All the provincial NDP parties are affiliated with the federal party, so there's not much difference there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cheezy Tory ads:

http://www.conservative.ca/EN/our_tv_ads/#

omg omg omg

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a darn shame. The Liberals aren't much better. Canadians should wake up and smell the NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

The elections could very well be this fall, depending on what happens in Parliament.

[Hatman 🍁]

The elections could very well be this fall, depending on what happens in Parliament.

True, they're guarenteed between now and February 06.

Siege

Feb. 6? Where do you get that number? The election will be called within 30 days of the Gomery report. That can mean the election will by as much as 66 days after it. Or Martin could pull a fast one, and "Call" the election for 2007. At which point his government would be toppled within days

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

LMAO! Well done. Do the Conservatives have anyone that could take over the party? It would save them a lot of trouble.

Siege

They have a number of people, but Stephen wont be stepping down until after the election.

[Hatman 🍁]

hahaha

Why hello Nick.

How did you find this place out?