Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Gabu]

Gay marriage has been going on and on and on for something like two years now. Can't we talk about something else? Like all those Liberal scandals?

NO

YOU SAW NOTHING

[Gabu]

It's a darn shamed. The Liberals aren't much better. Canadians should wake up and smell the NDP

Oh, I've been smelling the NDP for a long time; the scent is very distinct.

[Gabu]

His motto, and the motto of his government is "Deny, Deny, Deny.  It's anybody else's fault but ours."

Martin has ejected ten people from his party and has said absolutely nothing against the Gomery Report.  The Gomery Report essentially absolved him personally of any blame.  Jean Chrétien is, of course, up to his usual antics, but given that he neither is in power anymore nor is Paul Martin, that's not really relevant.

I'm having trouble seeing what Martin is denying.

[Gabu]

His motto, and the motto of his government is "Deny, Deny, Deny.  It's anybody else's fault but ours."

I'm having trouble seeing what Martin is denying.

RESPONSIBILITY!

Martin was Finance Minister and the senior minister from Quebec during the time all this rip off of taxpayers dollars by the Liberal Party of Canada was going on.

Like I said, Martin is either lying, stupid, or incompetent.  Take your pick.  You can choose up to three.

Well, the Gomery Report basically said that Martin did not play any part in and was not responsible for what happened.  If you want to dispute that claim, go ahead, but I don't see why Martin should take responsibility for something after a very, very lengthy investigation turned up basically nothing against him whatsoever.  If a judge gives a ruling of "not guilty" in a murder trial, should the accused serve a jail sentence anyway just so we have some clear person to take the fall for what happened?

I more get the sense that you would like Martin to be completely, directly responsible for what happened.

[Gabu]

I didn't get interviewed.  I feel so left out.

[Gabu]

Where is Stronach running this time?

Newmarket-Aurora.

[Gabu]

she's gonna run in a tory seat (granted, one she won?)

Wouldn't the liberals move her to a safe riding?

Well, her re-election website displays Newmarket-Aurora as the riding in question.  That's all I know.

[Gabu]

My reasoning is that the NDP will be caught in the squeeze between the Conservatives and the Liberals, voters knowing the NDP cannot win, and mostly either voting Conservative for a change in government, or voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.

Why would the unlikelihood of an NDP victory make voters not vote NDP?  It's never stopped them before.

I predict the NDP to gain seats for one simple reason: the Liberal party is essentially the centrist party in Canada.  That means the ridings that a Liberal currently represents can go one of two ways: either more conservative (Conservative) or more liberal (NDP).  The more conservative places that previously voted Liberal are likely now to be won by the Conservative Party and the more liberal places that previously voted Liberal are likely now to be won by the NDP.

The people who voted NDP in the last election are not likely to change their votes: they knew that the NDP wasn't going to win last election, and a Tory minority was possible there, as well.  That means that the NDP voters' numbers can only go up from what they were in 2004.

[Gabu]

It seems that, given current polling, the Tories will likely form a minority government...how possible is it, if at all, that they could take a narrow majority...

what sort of polling numbers give that result?

Mulroney's PCs got 43% of the vote in 1988 when they got 160-ish seats.  I'd say that Harper is right on the cusp of where he'd need to be to get a majority.

[Gabu]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

[Gabu]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

That's not what happened in 1984

Yeah, but that was 1984, so the entire country turned to the dark side in homage of George Orwell.  They got back into the swing of things in 1988 when they were like "we're going with the mothaf***in' NDP, and you can't do a thing about it".  Then in 1993, when the Liberals got a 177-seat majority, BC was like "NOPE SORRY BACK TO THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY FOR US LOL".  Then the Liberals lost a considerable amount of support in 2004, so naturally, the Liberals got more seats in BC in that election than they had ever gotten under Chrétien.

[Gabu]

The good news: A good chance of the Liberals becoming the third party.
The bad news: If that happens probably a Conservative MAJORITY government

This is basically my problem.  I think it's time for the Liberals to have a time-out in the corner, but the only other party with any chance of forming a government is the Conservatives.  If we get a Conservative minority, it'll be out within a year.  If we get a Conservative majority... well, we get a Conservative majority, which needs no further explanation.

Canada is basically screwed as far as this election goes.  There is basically no possible good outcome.

[Gabu]

Does anyone else think that this reeks of desperation?

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2006/01/17/martin-layton.html

That made me literally laugh out loud.

Well, he's got somewhat of a point, really, even if the headline words it in a way that makes it sound funny.  This entire election is happening basically due to Layton, and if the Conservatives do get a majority government out of it, the NDP will have lost a ton of power compared with what they had under the minority Liberal government.

[Gabu]

Regardless of the slight inaccuracy regarding the position of Layton and Duceppe (at least in terms of projected number of seats), I feel absolutely compelled to post this here for comic relief.

[Gabu]

Very interesting poll from B.C... more useful than any regional breakdown methinks...

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pr/20060119.htm

I liked the part where 4% of respondents said that NDP has the best chance of winning.

[Gabu]

Anyways, I shall say this now, I cannot by law comment on election results until all the polls have closed. (f**k you Gabu )

I'M HAULING YOU INTO THE BIG HOUSE MISTER

[Gabu]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

The Liberals won a majority in the 1980 election.  I think you're thinking of the 1984 election, in which the Conservatives won a much larger victory than they're likely to get in this election.  The country wasn't demolished after that election; somehow I get the sense it will survive this one.

[Gabu]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

[Gabu]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

Thanks.  If the whole Right only got two seats that would have been really amazing.  I have another question too, on CBC, they keep mentioning Senators, what is this title?

Canada has senators just like America, but they're appointed by the federal government (kind of like judges), not elected.  Stephen Harper wants to make them elected (probably because they currently strongly favor the Liberals, but never mind that).

[Gabu]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

Thanks.  If the whole Right only got two seats that would have been really amazing.  I have another question too, on CBC, they keep mentioning Senators, what is this title?

Canada has senators just like America, but they're appointed by the federal government (kind of like judges), not elected.  Stephen Harper wants to make them elected (probably because they currently strongly favor the Liberals, but never mind that).

Ok, do they have any real power, or are they like the House of Lords?

I believe that bills need to go through the Senate, but another Canadian poster may want to confirm that; I'm not actually well-versed in how the Senate goes about its business.

It's largely regarded as "the place where politicians go to die", however.  I wouldn't mind making it elected.

[Gabu]

Lib-BlockQ

That's quite possibly the most unholy alliance I've ever seen.

[Gabu]

Is this Harper a good speaker/performer or charismatic? I have seen him only few times on TV, but he seems to be fairly cold and unsympathetic guy. Look his eys!!! I think I see him like I think leftist people see conservative politicians generally and I am a conservative myself. What hell is happening to me?!?

Look at my signature to see what I think of him.  He's one of the most uninspiring politicians I've seen yet.

[Gabu]

How that Martin's resigned, who will be the next liberal leader?

I don't really know.  I'm personally hoping it'll be Keith Martin or Belinda Stronach or someone like that, but I have no idea who actually is a serious contender.

[Gabu]

And people are seriously suggesting her as a Liberal leader already? (shakes head)

No.  I just happen to like her.  I have no real clue who the actual frontrunners for the Liberal leadership are.