Floyd County KY

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How did Conway win Floyd County by 12%, while losing other counties in the area? I thought Floyd was supposed to be one of the counties that was pretty much lost for good for the Democrats, yet Conway outperformed his statewide number by 21 points. I expect to see this in the Floyd County of 15 years ago, not the Floyd County of today.

Is this because Floyd County has voting machines that actually work?

[Hydera]

How did Conway win Floyd County by 12%, while losing other counties in the area? I thought Floyd was supposed to be one of the counties that was pretty much lost for good for the Democrats, yet Conway outperformed his statewide number by 21 points. I expect to see this in the Floyd County of 15 years ago, not the Floyd County of today.

Is this because Floyd County has voting machines that actually work?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2007&fips=21071&off=5&elect=0&f=0

Beshear won it by 80% in 2007. Even with a steady decline afterwards, Conway won it by a little over 50%.

basically there was still enough support for the democratic candidate so conway won there although it declined.  In contrast, Pike county went for Beshear in 2007 by 70% and it dropped to 42% for conway. If it was 80% in 2007, conway probably would of won it a little over 50%, just like he did with floyd county.

[Kingpoleon]

How did Conway win Floyd County by 12%, while losing other counties in the area? I thought Floyd was supposed to be one of the counties that was pretty much lost for good for the Democrats, yet Conway outperformed his statewide number by 21 points. I expect to see this in the Floyd County of 15 years ago, not the Floyd County of today.

Is this because Floyd County has voting machines that actually work?

Do you expect us to take you seriously when you claim faulty voting machines flipped nearly 10% of the vote?

[Njall]

How did Conway win Floyd County by 12%, while losing other counties in the area? I thought Floyd was supposed to be one of the counties that was pretty much lost for good for the Democrats, yet Conway outperformed his statewide number by 21 points. I expect to see this in the Floyd County of 15 years ago, not the Floyd County of today.

Is this because Floyd County has voting machines that actually work?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2007&fips=21071&off=5&elect=0&f=0

Beshear won it by 80% in 2007. Even with a steady decline afterwards, Conway won it by a little over 50%.

basically there was still enough support for the democratic candidate so conway won there although it declined.  In contrast, Pike county went for Beshear in 2007 by 70% and it dropped to 42% for conway. If it was 80% in 2007, conway probably would of won it a little over 50%, just like he did with floyd county.

There's also the fact that about 85% of Floyd County's registered voters are registered Democrats, so even with a large proportion of them staying home/voting Republican, it looks like there were enough Democrats that stayed 'home' to allow Conway to carry the county.

[Adam Griffin]

FYI: the top-left map shows the county party affiliation (excluding unaffiliated, which was 4.7% in KY at the time) as of the 2014 election - Floyd was one of the few >90% D then in terms of registration.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I thought for sure Gallatin and Woodford counties were Democratic by registration.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I thought for sure Gallatin and Woodford counties were Democratic by registration.

As a Kentuckian you should understand that the Democrats are losing ground in that state and people are switching sides.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

As a Kentuckian you should understand that the Democrats are losing ground in that state and people are switching sides.

That wasn't what I was saying. What I was talking about was registration, not voting patterns.

[RFayette]

If every voter in Kentucky had to re-register, would it still be majority Democrat?  Or is it just that a lot of people haven't formally changed their registration even though they now identify as Republicans?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If every voter in Kentucky had to re-register, would it still be majority Democrat?

Almost certainly.

[Hydera]

If every voter in Kentucky had to re-register, would it still be majority Democrat?  Or is it just that a lot of people haven't formally changed their registration even though they now identify as Republicans?

There are a ton of registered democrats in the south who don't vote democrat anymore and have been voting for republican straight tickets since the 2000's.  So obviously.

If every voter in Kentucky had to re-register, would it still be majority Democrat?

Almost certainly.

Dude just stop.

[Adam Griffin]

If every voter in Kentucky had to re-register, would it still be majority Democrat?  Or is it just that a lot of people haven't formally changed their registration even though they now identify as Republicans?

There are a ton of registered democrats in the south who don't vote democrat anymore and have been voting for republican straight tickets since the 2000's.  So obviously.

Where did this map come from? Realisticidealist? Ugh, I guess I wasted hours of my time building this one...although it's different (it uses two-way analysis; eliminates third-party and unaffiliated voters from the equation).

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

As a Kentuckian you should understand that the Democrats are losing ground in that state and people are switching sides.

That wasn't what I was saying. What I was talking about was registration, not voting patterns.

A lot of people just haven't gotten around to changing their registration yet.

[RI]

If every voter in Kentucky had to re-register, would it still be majority Democrat?  Or is it just that a lot of people haven't formally changed their registration even though they now identify as Republicans?

There are a ton of registered democrats in the south who don't vote democrat anymore and have been voting for republican straight tickets since the 2000's.  So obviously.

Where did this map come from? Realisticidealist? Ugh, I guess I wasted hours of my time building this one...although it's different (it uses two-way analysis; eliminates third-party and unaffiliated voters from the equation).

I made it a while back with 2010 data. I was eventually going to update it eventually, but you beat me to it.

[TDAS04]

Obama lost it by only one point in 2008, so it's not at all surprising that the Conway carried it two years later in a closer election.