2004 General Election Match-up, Part 2

[Inmate Trump]

Just another little survey, continuing from my last "match-up" thread, featuring Dick Gephardt as the Democratic nominee--Go check that one out and vote.

[Jacob]

Just another little survey, continuing from my last "match-up" thread, featuring Dick Gephardt as the Democratic nominee--Go check that one out and vote.

Interesting to say the least, Edwards was on 60 minutes today, and did a very good job imho.  That will help his campaign, and he posed an intriguing idea to the interviewer (can't remember who.)  He said that when the primaries hit the South, that he could wrap up the nomination there...

Counting on winning the entire south didn't work for Al Gore in '88, and it won't work for Edwards today. Even if Edwards won all the southern states, it wouldn't be enough delegates to win the nomination. And he won't win all the southern states. He probably won't even win his neighboring state of South Carolina, because Clark is leading there right now. Edwards and Clark(and to a lesser extent, Gephardt, because he will do better in the Midwest than in the South) are going to split the south up, so Edwards does not have a very good shot at the nomination. I would say - from where I'm sitting right now - that Dean has about a 50% chance of winning the nomination, and the other 4 major Democratic candidates(Clark, Kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman) each have around a 10-15% chance of getting the nomination.


...And by the way, if the election were held today, I'd vote for John Edwards. I would vote for any of the 9 Dem candidates.

[Demrepdan]

Edwards doesn't have a chance anymore, and although I used to like him, I like Gephardt a little better, or even Clark, and dare I say...Dean? *gasp*... so I voted for Bush.

[Inmate Trump]

I agree.  Edwards, while a seemingly good candidate, won't win the primary.

It's weird--he started out so promising.  What happened, John?

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Just another little survey, continuing from my last "match-up" thread, featuring Dick Gephardt as the Democratic nominee--Go check that one out and vote.

Interesting to say the least, Edwards was on 60 minutes today, and did a very good job imho.  That will help his campaign, and he posed an intriguing idea to the interviewer (can't remember who.)  He said that when the primaries hit the South, that he could wrap up the nomination there...

Counting on winning the entire south didn't work for Al Gore in '88, and it won't work for Edwards today. Even if Edwards won all the southern states, it wouldn't be enough delegates to win the nomination. And he won't win all the southern states. He probably won't even win his neighboring state of South Carolina, because Clark is leading there right now. Edwards and Clark(and to a lesser extent, Gephardt, because he will do better in the Midwest than in the South) are going to split the south up, so Edwards does not have a very good shot at the nomination. I would say - from where I'm sitting right now - that Dean has about a 50% chance of winning the nomination, and the other 4 major Democratic candidates(Clark, Kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman) each have around a 10-15% chance of getting the nomination.


...And by the way, if the election were held today, I'd vote for John Edwards. I would vote for any of the 9 Dem candidates.

Any? That might be going a bit too far. I wouldn't vote for Sharpton, Braun, Kucinich, Gephardt, Kerry.

[Inmate Trump]

It's interesting to see that Edwards has more votes than Bush at this point.  In my previous poll, with Gephardt, Bush held his lead pretty easily.  Checking in from time to time, I don't think Edwards has lost his lead once yet.

[jravnsbo]

tied up now I see.

Edwards is no wher eint eh news lately.

[MAS117]

Sen. Edwards is a good man. It's too bad he doesnt have a chance in hell to get the nom. I see it as Kerry having a much better chance then Gephardt for nomination. He is campgaining in New Mexico, Arizona, and he could win some of those primaries in early Febuary. Gephardt is sticking to trying in Iowa.

[jravnsbo]

are you talking about Edwards for Feb 3?  as Kerry is not even trying in the feb 3 states.  He hasn't been to SC since his "carrier" announcement.

[MAS117]

then why was Kerry campagining in New Mexico last week? who do you support for the nomination?

[Inmate Trump]

Well, I spoke too soon, it looks like, as Bush is leading Edwards in this poll now--but only by 1 vote (as of this writing).

[jravnsbo]

MAS - Going to a few state visits isn't trying to hard.  I don't see Kerry surviving New Hampshire.

Well I'm definately for President Bush so nomination doesn't matter to me on Dem side.

Dean--TAX Increases, anti-war, etc I could go on and on

Gephardt--TAX INCREASES on middle class like Dean, washed up and also ran

Clark-0% Domestic experience

Edwards--  Senator Who?

Lieberman, most reasonable but also a tremendous tax increasor.

Kerry- what has he done in the Senate for 19 years?  where are his accomplishments?  Then as my father a Vietnam Vet also said , you can say Kerry is a vet, but then when you remember he was a leader of the Anti-war movement when Soldiers like John McCain were still held as POWs , that completely negates his military experience and even pushes him into the minus category for a lot of vets.

Braun, Kucinich, Sharpton- HA HA no chance

[WONK]

"We don't hold coronations, we hold caucuses."  Blah, blah, blah

[Wakie]

Dean--TAX Increases, anti-war, etc I could go on and on

Gephardt--TAX INCREASES on middle class like Dean, washed up and also ran

Just a question ... how do you propose we reduce the defecit?  Spending has skyrocketed over the last 3 years.  With the babyboomers gearing up for retirement (and social security collection) how do you propose we cover the bill without a tax increase?

Clark-0% Domestic experience

Yep.  Then again, Eisenhower had no domestic experience.

Edwards--  Senator Who?

I'm sorry, if George W's name was George W Smith do you honestly believe you would have heard of him in more than just passing?

Lieberman, most reasonable but also a tremendous tax increasor.

See above.

Kerry- what has he done in the Senate for 19 years?  where are his accomplishments?  Then as my father a Vietnam Vet also said , you can say Kerry is a vet, but then when you remember he was a leader of the Anti-war movement when Soldiers like John McCain were still held as POWs , that completely negates his military experience and even pushes him into the minus category for a lot of vets.

First lets address the Vietnam vet issue.  Your comments are interesting and ironic considering that Kerry and McCain are good friends.  In fact, coming out of a luncheon recently McCain was heard to have shouted "Kerry for President".  And there is no secret that McCain would be high on the list of VP candidates if Kerry got the nom.  McCain dislike of Bush is well-documented.  The reality is that Kerry, like many Vietnam Vets, felt that the government abandoned them.  His fight was with the government and for his fellow servicemen.

Now, you mentioned his legislative accomplishments.  Nothing personal, but how can you say he has none?

Here's a search engine that let's you search various legislation proposed by every Congress from the 93rd through the current 108th .... http://thomas.loc.gov/bss/d108query.html

A search by Kerry's name shows he has been the primary sponsor on 45 pieces of legislation and has cosponsored an additional 368.  And that is this year alone.  Now contrast that with Trent Lott who has only sponsored 30 pieces of legislation and cosponsored an additional 90.

He has been active in many committees ... http://kerry.senate.gov/bandwidth/about/committee.html

The point is, you may disagree with him.  But characterizing him as a do-nothing anti-veteran is not only false, it is exactly the opposite of what the man is.

Braun, Kucinich, Sharpton- HA HA no chance

True.

[jravnsbo]

Well deficits for one thing are going up b/c we had to dramatically increase defense spending b/c we are at war.  Every war we have ever been in we have had to runa  deficit, b/c national security interests are too important ot too.

9/11 terrorized us socially but also economically.  Bush's tax cuts just are starting to take effect as Reagan's did in the 80s.  So with a committment to hold spending down int he nex term as the conservatives are talking a growth rate of around 4% GDP will elimiate the deficit.

To compare Ike and Clark is like Night and Day.  Ike won WW2, Clark almost started WW3 but luckily the British General stood up to him.  Ike was larger than life and had integrity.

Bush was the governor of a Big state, where you are and gain executive experience.  He had been around his father's administration and saw how it worked, grew up with his dad's foriegn policy advisors and actually had a lot of experience behind the scenes.  Not even comparable to Edwards, who I still think should have waited till 2008.

kerry- well is there the kerry amendment or "Roth IRA" like example?  no he has been quiet and stayed in Kennedy's shadow.  Everyone does something in congress, but nothing significant.  How has he distinguished himself as a senator?  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ike's did NOT win WW2 and his "warmth" was staged. He was actually cruel and calculating.

And I seriously doubt that Bush would have become County Dog Catcher if he was called G.W.Smith.

[jravnsbo]

Well you should have known what i meant by WW2 comment.

If not he was very instrumental in winning it.  Or a comparison of Supreme Allied Commander that helped end a major war vs NAto commander that almost started a war is better.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually Ike almost blew the entire Western Front by procrastinating...

Give the Russians there dues.

[Wakie]

My point about the deficit is that we have to develop a way to pay it down.  Sure, you can site the war as a cause of the increase.  But this is not a standard war.  It has no foreseeable end.  You don't just storm Berlin or Tokyo.  In the mean time we need to develop a plan for paying for this war AND paying for our domestic concerns.

I think the Clark/Ike comparison is fair.  All I'm talking about is that Clark has as much domestic experience as Ike had on Christmas Eve of 1951.

Bush had limited experience.  Texas has a weak executive system.  Being Gov of Texas is a far cry from being President of the US.  Sure, Bush can always call his father for help but on a day to day basis ... well, you get the idea.  Sure, I'd like a President with more experience, but I think Edwards brings as much to the table as Bush brought in 2000.  Frankly I don't think Edwards will get the nom, but now he is nationally known.  Yeah, he'll be back in 2008 (assuming Bush is reelected).

Kerry's high profile work in Congress has been normalizing relations with Vietnam, fighting for prescription drug benefits for veterans, protecting the environment, and encouraging the growth of emerging technologies.  Let's put it this way ... what was Trent Lott's big piece of legislation, or Orrin Hatch's, or Bob Dole's?  Certainly these men have all been involved in worthwhile causes but just slapping your name on a high profile piece of legislation isn't the measure of your worth.

[jravnsbo]

no the name alone is not noteworthy, but these you mention int he GOP ranks have been aggressive and sought leadership posts and contributed that way and are knwn for it.  Kerry has just stayed int eh shadow and was about as well known as some of the western senators and he has been in 19 years!

[Wakie]

Well I can't speak for you, but I've been aware of John Kerry since watching him during Iran-Contra was he was still a relatively young pup.

Kerry is also the ranking member of several committees.  Yeah, he isn't majority leader and, unless elected President, he will certainly always be overshadowed by Ted Kennedy ... but Ted Kennedy overshadows just about EVERYONE.  Think of it this way, without looking them up can you name the junior senators from Mississippi, Utah, or Kansas?  Probably not.  They may be great senators who are just being overshadowed.

[jravnsbo]

Well i could name every senator if put to the test, but I know that is rare.

As I was saying Kerry is an unknown to the public before th campaign and that is surprising after 19 yearsin the most exclusive club in the world.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that MS's junior senator is actually Trent Lott...(with Cochran being the senior senator)

[MAS117]

Thank you for pointing that out Wakie

[Gustaf]

Actually Ike almost blew the entire Western Front by procrastinating...

Give the Russians there dues.

Eisenhower (like FDR) betrayed Eastern Europe to Stalin. That is hard to forgive for me.