Which one of these states is most likely to vote Republican in 2016?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

None will flip, with Haasan running 1-2 points ahead of Ayotte.  Bellweathers are CO /Iowa/Ohio and Va will tip balance.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any COULD fall, but probably to different candidates. But to be brutally honest, I can't see the GOP winning any of them next year.

[windjammer]

I would say Nevada. If republicans win, they would have likely massively improved their standing among hispanics. Considering Nevada has the highest hispanic population among the three, I guess this state would be the likeliest pick up.

[Cruzcrew]

Pennsylvania seems more conceivable than Nevada or New Hampshire. This all depends on the candidate the republicans out up, but assuming the candidate isn't nearly as strongly supportive of immigration reform as Jeb Bush, I'd think Nevada goes out the window. New Hampshire I doubt the GOP could hit 50% with, there only hope would be a strong third party run. Pennsylvania seems slightly more likely and is a more natural fit, being fairly socially conservative, a  coal state, the most religious of the three, and over 80% white. It definitely won't be easy but if it's heavily targeted, I think the state can flip most easily.

This is the same state that dumped Corbett, right? The Dems has their convention in Philly. Unless Pitts suburbs come out to vote for Trump, he's not winning the state.
I doubt trump would win it but I could see a candidate like Rubio or Kasich doing pretty well there among the college educated whites and more moderate voters.

[Xing]

TNVol is a troll regarding this subject.  The answer is either PA or NH, and I'm going with NH.

The truth hurts, doesn't it? Seriously, if Mitt Romney and Scott Brown can't win the state, then who can? Rubio? LOL

Uh, are those of you saying Nevada only focusing on what happened in 2014 or something? NV was more Democratic in 2008 and 2012, and Republicans have been doing terribly with the key demographic of Nevada. Of these three states. Nevada will go Republican last. It's a toss-up between PA and NH for me.

Should we just ignore 2014? Ask yourself this: Would Brian Sandoval have won 71% in PA or NH? The answer is pretty obvious.

Probably not in PA, merely because of the size, but if he were that popular in NH, and Democrats completely ignored the state, then yes, he could. The point is, the results of the last presidential race in NV are a better (albeit not 100% foolproof) way of guessing NV's leanings in 2016 than a gubernatorial race that Democrats didn't even try to win.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'm going with PA, but any one of those states could end up being won narrowly by a Republican or by a 20-point margin by a Democrat.

Pa wont vote R, the only election it was a tossup was 2004, the GOP are hard pressed defending Ohio, and it would t matter if Dems win CO, NV anyways.

It also elected Corbett and Pat Toomey. Which state do you see being easier than PA? NH or NV?

[RosettaStoned]

  1. Nevada
  2. New Hampshire
  3. Pennsylvania 

[Clark Kent]

1. New Hampshire
2. Nevada
3. Pennsylvania

[Senator Cris]

I'll go with Pennsylvania.

Obama 2012's margin of victory in Pennsylvania was closest than New Hampshire's, despite the fact that Romney was a good fit for New Hampshire. Also early polls are showing a more competitive race in Pennsylvania than New Hampshire.

[Crumpets]

I'm going with Pennsylvania. Nevada and New Hampshire would be cherries on the top of an already big Republican victory, and they're not likely to spend mounds trying to flip states they don't need. Pennsylvania on the other hand would play a huge part in a Republican win if it became competitive, and I suspect the RNC will bombard its airwaves nonstop if it ever got reasonably close, and even if it didn't look reasonably close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, the GOP will be hard pressed defending OH, that's why Castro name keeps coming up, because NV & CO are critical. NATE Silver isnt really giving the GOP that much of a chance in winning Pennsylvania.  In a state that voted out Corbett, and a state that has Bob Casey Jr in it, who will campign with Dems downballot, Nevada, New Hamsphire and Pennsylvania, in that order will flip.

Pennsylvania is the Keystone, and bellweather, along with Iowa, NV, CO & NH

[Orser67]

I'd definitely go with New Hampshire, which is an unpredictable state capable of voting for anyone. Republican presidential candidates have consistently come up short in PA, and I think that they will have a lot of trouble winning Nevada going forward.

I really doubt that Republicans will experience much of a comeback in 2016 among non-Cuban Hispanics (compared to the population as a whole) even with Rubio/Cruz on the ticket.