Two-way partisan registration by county, 2014-2015

[Adam Griffin]

I'm nearly "done" with this. This examines voter registration statistics by state and county, breaking down the totals and comparing only Democratic & Republican registration totals against each other.

In some states (such as KY, where unaffiliated registered voters are less than 5% of the voting pool) there isn't much loss in reducing to the two-way model. In other states (like MA, where 53% of registered voters are unaffiliated), there is a dramatic loss of voters in the analysis.

The unfinished New England states all have data, but they are broken down by town instead of by city (ugh). I'll fix those sooner or later. The other light-grayed-out states either have temporary issues with SoS (SD) or do not have this data available online at all (UT, AR). The dark gray states do not have partisan registration.

You can definitely see old trends - on both sides - throughout various states. What surprises you the most?

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[Nyvin]

What surprises you the most?

Louisiana probably.

[RINO Tom]

I did this on my own two years ago (using "real" colors and my own shading), and I was really surprised how loyally Democratic the South is.  It is a real shame that those Deep South states don't do partisan registration, because it'd be fascinating to see the results.  In a less-than-perfect way of "estimating," I shaded each county in by which party had more voters in its primary (during 2008) ... this had obvious flaws, but it was interesting.

Biggest surprise for me is that a lot of middle Maine has "stuck to its roots" and that there isn't even one county in MA with some RINOs in it!

EDIT: Also, since I last did this, a few counties in KY have moved GOP, I know (from other sources) that OK finally has more Republicans than Democrats total and Long Island has more Democrats than Republicans for the first time.

[Boston Bread]

I thought the Idaho panhandle had more blue dog type democrats.

[CountyTy90]

I've been kind of in an Oklahoma phase recently and I made a made a map of party reg, but like RINO Tom mine was made for myself, so before people go off about the colors they are the non-Atlas colors.

But anyways, here ya go. It's really interesting to see how this mirrors with how pre 2000's era elections were: Democrats strongest in Little Dixie and along the Texas border, while Republicans were strongest in the cities/suburbs and the northwest and Panhandle. Just compare my map with the 1986 governor's race:

[Adam Griffin]

I have completed everything except the 5 trouble-making states (New England + UT, along with SD which is currently unavailable).

What year and from where did you pull that data? I've noticed some differences between yours and mine. I used January 2015 data for OK.

[Adam Griffin]

What surprises you the most?

Iowa and to a lesser extent Florida.

Iowa shocked me a lot, too, if only because of what I saw initially before making the map: Republicans only have a 3,000-voter advantage statewide among active voters (what was used in this particular instance); Democrats have a ~15,000-voter advantage among active and inactive. To be fair, once you start going county-by-county, there are a lot of really close R majorities. Iowa is also insanely rural throughout most of the state, so probably not that surprising.

[RI]

Iowa also has a lot of Indys who vote Dem with relatively high frequency.

[Goldwater]

I assume those Democrats in Mineral County, NV must be blue dog DINO types? Interesting, I never really realized that Nevada had those types of voters.

[CountyTy90]

I have completed everything except the 5 trouble-making states (New England + UT, along with SD which is currently unavailable).

What year and from where did you pull that data? I've noticed some differences between yours and mine. I used January 2015 data for OK.

I was lazy. Wikipedia had January 2012 reg on each county page, so I just used those. Would be interesting to see the change in the 3 years though.

Edit: I didn't see that you had posted Oklahoma on the original map. Seems only a few counties flipped.

[RI]

I assume those Democrats in Mineral County, NV must be blue dog DINO types? Interesting, I never really realized that Nevada had those types of voters.

Mineral County votes Dem fairly frequently:
2014 Secretary of State
2010 Senate
2010 Treasurer

It came pretty close to voting for Obama in 2008. Most of the county is employed at the Hawthorne Army Depot.

[Bismarck]

Maine is a little surprising. It is defiantly and independent minded state. Also I would have expected more of an east west gradient in Iowa than that.

[Goldwater]

I assume those Democrats in Mineral County, NV must be blue dog DINO types? Interesting, I never really realized that Nevada had those types of voters.

Mineral County votes Dem fairly frequently:
2014 Secretary of State
2010 Senate
2010 Treasurer

It came pretty close to voting for Obama in 2008. Most of the county is employed at the Hawthorne Army Depot.

Huh, I see. I guess I just always pictured rural Nevada as being pretty conservative, despite not being very religious.

[mds32]

Mineral County, NV, Pender/Burke Counties, NC, Union County, NM have switched to GOP leads.

[mds32]

After 2014-15 registrations have been completed these are the counties that flipped registrations:

To Republican:
Carroll, IA
Clayton, IA
Mineral, NV
Union, NM
Burke, NC
Pender, NC
Custer, OK

To Democrat:
Clear Creek, CO
Jefferson, IA

[Torie]

Yeah, Columbia County, NY tipped over to the Dems a few years ago. Much if not all of that had to do with a NY court case, that allowed folks to register were their second homes were. As a result, a host of white liberal gentry, with their principal residences in the NYC orbit, and second homes in Columbia County, changed their registration to Columbia County. The Dems made a big push for that. Hey, why vote in Manhattan, where your vote will never make any difference in local elections, when you can vote in little old Columbia County, population about 60,000, or say, even better, Hudson, NY, population 6,400? The message resonated. In fact, it resonated so much, that the Pubs are still litigating the matter, waiting for the right case, and the right court, to make another run at it.

And the Pub Board of Elections representative, when it might make a difference, challenges all such ballots, just in case it decides an election, and the Pub machine decides it's the right case to run the matter up the flag pole again. Democrats should vote were they are mere surplusage damn it, not where they might threaten the Pub hegemony over Columbia County, and all those Pub patronage jobs. Oh the horror, the horror of it all!

[mds32]

After 2014-15 registrations have been completed these are the counties that flipped registrations:

To Republican:
Carroll, IA
Clayton, IA
Mineral, NV
Union, NM
Burke, NC
Pender, NC
Custer, OK

To Democrat:
Clear Creek, CO
Jefferson, IA

Forgot to add Washington, FL flipped to the GOP this year.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, Columbia County, NY tipped over to the Dems a few years ago. Much if not all of that had to do with a NY court case, that allowed folks to register were their second homes were. As a result, a host of white liberal gentry, with their principal residences in the NYC orbit, and second homes in Columbia County, changed their registration to Columbia County. The Dems made a big push for that. Hey, why vote in Manhattan, where your vote will never make any difference in local elections, when you can vote in little old Columbia County, population about 60,000, or say, even better, Hudson, NY, population 6,400? The message resonated. In fact, it resonated so much, that the Pubs are still litigating the matter, waiting for the right case, and the right court, to make another run at it.

And the Pub Board of Elections representative, when it might make a difference, challenges all such ballots, just in case it decides an election, and the Pub machine decides it's the right case to run the matter up the flag pole again. Democrats should vote were they are mere surplusage damn it, not where they might threaten the Pub hegemony over Columbia County, and all those Pub patronage jobs. Oh the horror, the horror of it all!

Just have to bring up Hudson.

[ElectionsGuy]

WOW at Louisiana. Uber-R rural counties still have Democratic registration, while only 3 suburban/exurban counties have R registration.

[Virginiá]

WOW at Louisiana. Uber-R rural counties still have Democratic registration, while only 3 suburban/exurban counties have R registration.

Could this be because less population movement/new voters out there resulted in less registration changes? I wouldn't think the majority of people actually change their party identification on their registration once they switch allegiances. More populated areas would suggest that affiliation rates would change more frequently for obvious reasons.

I mean, after all, Louisiana still had a Democratic legislature and a good bit of Democratic office holders all the way up until Jan 2011:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Louisiana

Hell, even Alabama and Arkansas did as well.

[RINO Tom]

WOW at Louisiana. Uber-R rural counties still have Democratic registration, while only 3 suburban/exurban counties have R registration.

Is that really that surprising?  True Republican strength still lies in exurbs, despite this "rural vs. urban" divide that is constantly pushed.

[Young Conservative]

I always find it interesting how northern florida votes republican with 70-80% now but still has majority dem registration. In oklahoma its an even more extreme change