National poll-UMass: Trump and Clinton ahead.

[Senator Cris]

Trump 31
Carson 22
Cruz 13
Rubio 9
Fiorina 4
Kasich 4
Paul 4
Bush 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 1
Jindal 1
Santorum < 1
Graham < 1
Pataki 0
Gilmore 0

Clinton 63
Sanders 29
O'Malley 6

http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20151116_Toplines.pdf

[Gallium]

Past MA primaries:

12: Romney 72, Santorum 12
08 McCain 51, Romney 41
00 McCain 65, W 32
96: Dole 48, Buchanan 25

Now the most popular establishment candidate is in fourth, and the establishment candidates (Rubio,  Kasich, Bush, Christie) total 18%. Time for the GOPe to start panicking.

[weixiaobao]

Well the last time we have a MA poll (despite different pollster).

-Trump went down quite a bit
-Carson went up quite a bit
-Cruz seemed to double
-Bush get halves

[Senator Cris]

It's a national poll.
Sorry guys.

[RI]

Being a national poll makes this much better for Trump than if it were just MA. It's still YouGov, though.

[Senator Cris]

It's a poll conducted Nov. 5-13, so it's not entirely post-debate.
I'm looking forward for an entirely post-debate national that's not Rasmussen.

[Lief 🗽]

O'Mentum!

[Maxwell]

Pretty nice poll, pretty nice poll...

The Donald smashing Dr. Pathological is such a joy for our nation!

also I'd like to point out Jeb Bush. at 3%. Ouch. And behind the terrible terrible Kasich.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Bush should really drop out, he wont win NH or any early states, not even his own. Cruz is doin' better though, could be a frontrunner soon, along with Rubio.

[Ebsy]

jfern's absence from this thread is telling.

[Mr. Morden]

Note that among “confirmed registered voters”, Carson has much better #s:

Carson 29%
Trump 28%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 9%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 3%
Bush 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 1%
Huckabee 1%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 1%
Graham, Gilmore 0%

Carson’s also first in the “second choice” list, followed by Cruz and Rubio, followed by Trump.

[Kingpoleon]

The thirst was real for Kasich to be a loserwinner, but reality had other ideas.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

O'Mentum!

This was taken entirely before the Dem debate. Interesting.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

O'Mentum!

This was taken entirely before the Dem debate. Interesting.

I knew there was something off about this poll.

[tpfkaw]

Poor Gilmore, not one person chose him as their first, second, third, fourth or even fifth choice.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Poor Gilmore, not one person chose him as their first, second, third, fourth or even fifth choice.

Wow, you just made me pity him more than South Park's incarnation of Al Gore.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

jfern's absence from this thread is telling.

It's a pre debate poll from a subpar pollster. Nothing to get too excited about.

[Kingpoleon]

jfern's absence from this thread is telling.

It's a pre debate poll from a subpar pollster. Nothing to get too excited about.

>Subpar

> University of Massachusetts

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Past MA primaries:

12: Romney 72, Santorum 12
08 McCain 51, Romney 41
00 McCain 65, W 32
96: Dole 48, Buchanan 25

Now the most popular establishment candidate is in fourth, and the establishment candidates (Rubio,  Kasich, Bush, Christie) total 18%. Time for the GOPe to start panicking.

I am pretty sure Romney won 51-41 over McCain in 2008.

The only places he lost were Suffolk County and the Berkshires.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

jfern's absence from this thread is telling.

It's a pre debate poll from a subpar pollster. Nothing to get too excited about.

>Subpar

> University of Massachusetts

I wasn't aware UMass even did polling of this kind, and I went to UMass.

[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo explains some of the findings re: who supporters of each candidate rank as their 2nd, 3rd, 4th choice candidates:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/19/republican-voters-actually-arent-divided-into-establishment-and-outsider-camps/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Here’s the plot:



There’s also this plot of how voters would move to other candidates if their favored candidate dropped out:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Figueira]

jfern's absence from this thread is telling.

It's a pre debate poll from a subpar pollster. Nothing to get too excited about.

>Subpar

> University of Massachusetts

I wasn't aware UMass even did polling of this kind, and I went to UMass.

I remember they were the only poll to show Coakley ahead right before the 2014 election. Although most pollsters overestimated Baker IIRC.