What's the probability that the GOP prez. nominee will be a non-Hispanic white?

[Mr. Morden]

?

Please note that in my definition of “Hispanic”, Cuban-Americans count as Hispanic.  That is, I don’t subscribe to the Chris Matthews definition.

[Bismarck]

Chris Mathews is awful. If anybody conservative said something like that the media would have a meltdown. I think he's the only one who is a bigger hack than Hannity and OReily.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

That is, I don’t subscribe to the Chris Matthews definition.

Burying your head in the sand doesn't make something untrue.

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http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/04/the-case-of-the-white-cubans/#.VktGo79oy70

It is no wonder the overwhelming majority of Americans don't understand Cuba nor the Cuban revolution.  The white historical ruling class of Cuba are hardly victims.

[Vosem]

Yes, the people who fled their homeland with nothing but the clothes on their backs are members of a "ruling class" and hardly victims. Tell us what other refugee groups are real victims and which are ruling classes undeserving of our sympathy, Schadenfreude.

[Famous Mortimer]

If you fled Cuba after 1961, you are a refugee.

If you fled Cuba between 1959 and 1961, you are human garbage.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

That is, I don’t subscribe to the Chris Matthews definition.

Burying your head in the sand doesn't make something untrue.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/04/the-case-of-the-white-cubans/#.VktGo79oy70

It is no wonder the overwhelming majority of Americans don't understand Cuba nor the Cuban revolution.  The white historical ruling class of Cuba are hardly victims.

being a non-Hispanic white implies not only being white, but, surprisingly perhaps, also being non-Hispanic.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

If you fled Cuba after 1961, you are a refugee.

If you fled Cuba between 1959 and 1961, you are human garbage.

One of the best definitions I've heard to date.

Yes, the people who fled their homeland with nothing but the clothes on their backs are members of a "ruling class" and hardly victims. Tell us what other refugee groups are real victims and which are ruling classes undeserving of our sympathy, Schadenfreude.

Fleeing with the clothes on your back=Must have been a saint all your life

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[Asian Nazi]

Cubans are definitely Hispanic lol

[The Other Castro]

Wait...how is it even possible to claim that Cubans aren't Hispanic? That's like saying Londoners aren't British.

[Vosem]

If you fled Cuba after 1961, you are a refugee.

If you fled Cuba between 1959 and 1961, you are human garbage.

One of the best definitions I've heard to date.

While Castro was not as bad at the very beginning as he very quickly became, even in 1959-1960 he was already appointing Marxists to government positions and by 1960 he was visibly closer to the Eastern Bloc than to the United States. Those who fled early instead of staying and suffering were wise (or lucky, since some moved looking for economic opportunity rather than out of any well-placed fear of the government). By the way, Schadenfreude, do you think anyone moving out of a country now is human garbage? Many seem to about the Syrians, so you'd have lots of prominent company.

Yes, the people who fled their homeland with nothing but the clothes on their backs are members of a "ruling class" and hardly victims. Tell us what other refugee groups are real victims and which are ruling classes undeserving of our sympathy, Schadenfreude.

Fleeing with the clothes on your back=Must have been a saint all your life

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A majority of those who fled Cuba in 1959-1961 were not murderous dictators. In fact, just one person was (and even then comparing him to the Duvaliers is a stretch).

Wait...how is it even possible to claim that Cubans aren't Hispanic? That's like saying Londoners aren't British.

No, it makes perfect sense. It's like the Salon article that declared that Wendy Davis didn't actually win women because she prevailed only among white women. For many people, when your ideology predicts a certain group to behave in a certain way, and then they don't, the only thing to do is to exclude the inconvenient group-members from your definition of the group so that the group as a whole is still behaving conveniently. If your ideology says Hispanics hate and are diametrically opposed to Republicans, Cubans cannot be Hispanic.

[angus]

I have no idea, but I voted 20-40%.  I guess the Donald, Jeb, Kasich, Fiorina, Christie, or Rand Paul would be the only ones.

If we use the PredictWise model, the sum of their probabilities is 34%, so that's how I voted.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Doesn't Hispanic mean anyone of Spanish Heritage?

[The Dowager Mod]

Doesn't Hispanic mean anyone of Spanish Heritage?

Nope.
Hispanic = Mainly Caribbean like from the island of Hispaniola.
Latino = Mainland like Mexico and Central America.
Or so I heard.

[Mr. Reactionary]

No, it makes perfect sense. It's like the Salon article that declared that Wendy Davis didn't actually win women because she prevailed only among white women. For many people, when your ideology predicts a certain group to behave in a certain way, and then they don't, the only thing to do is to exclude the inconvenient group-members from your definition of the group so that the group as a whole is still behaving conveniently. If your ideology says Hispanics hate and are diametrically opposed to Republicans, Cubans cannot be Hispanic.

Very well summed up.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Doesn't Hispanic mean anyone of Spanish Heritage?

Nope.
Hispanic = Mainly Caribbean like from the island of Hispaniola.
Latino = Mainland like Mexico and Central America.
Or so I heard.

I've heard it explained as Hispanic being what I said and Latino referring to anyone from Latin America.

[angus]

Doesn't Hispanic mean anyone of Spanish Heritage?

Yes.  Can be black, white, native american, Alaska native, Asian, Pacific Islander, or any race, but having ancestors from Spanish-speaking lands.   

To the US Census Bureau, hispanic refers to "a person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race."  It also uses this definition exactly for Latino and uses those two terms interchangeably.  Interestingly, it specifically excludes Portugal, Brazil, etc., so it is not identifying with the term Hispanic the entire Roman province of Hispania. 

[Mr. Morden]

That is, I don’t subscribe to the Chris Matthews definition.

Burying your head in the sand doesn't make something untrue.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/04/the-case-of-the-white-cubans/#.VktGo79oy70

It is no wonder the overwhelming majority of Americans don't understand Cuba nor the Cuban revolution.  The white historical ruling class of Cuba are hardly victims.

No idea what that's supposed to prove.  As Angus noted in the Census bureau definition:

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Thus, Marco Rubio for example is a White Hispanic.

I didn't intend for this question to get bogged down in such semantics, but oh well. 

[angus]

Indeed, Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra's fictional Don Quixote de la Mancha was no less hispanic for being 100% white.  That he was a victim (of his own madness) has no bearing on the question.  Were he real and living in the United States, the Census Bureau would want him to identify as a Hispanic White resident alien.

Interestingly, about 53% of those who identified as Hispanic on the census form in 2010 also identify as white, about 26% as two or more races, about 6% as black, and small numbers (>1%) as either Asian, PI, or native american, and about 36% as "other race."  My assumption is that the 36% who are not willing to identify with any of the existing racial categories are primarily hispanophone and identify only as part of La Raza, which no doubt frustrates Census Bureau attempts to categorize them.  I always choose "other race" myself, solely out of a sense of mischief.  One wonders why the Census Bureau would continues its obnoxious policy of setting Hispanophones apart from all other US persons, especially in light of the fact that its results are neither particularly useful nor particularly reliable.

Back to the question.  What probability model did you use when deciding?  There are plenty out there, and I think that most combine public opinion polls, news, and other data. 

[Taco Truck 🚚]

Yes, the people who fled their homeland with nothing but the clothes on their backs are members of a "ruling class" and hardly victims. Tell us what other refugee groups are real victims and which are ruling classes undeserving of our sympathy, Schadenfreude.

Fleeing with the clothes on your back=Must have been a saint all your life

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A majority of those who fled Cuba in 1959-1961 were not murderous dictators. In fact, just one person was (and even then comparing him to the Duvaliers is a stretch).

Not being a murderous dictator=Must have been a saint all your life

We can do this all day long till you learn the concept of logic.

That is, I don’t subscribe to the Chris Matthews definition.

Burying your head in the sand doesn't make something untrue.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/04/the-case-of-the-white-cubans/#.VktGo79oy70

It is no wonder the overwhelming majority of Americans don't understand Cuba nor the Cuban revolution.  The white historical ruling class of Cuba are hardly victims.

No idea what that's supposed to prove.  As Angus noted in the Census bureau definition:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thus, Marco Rubio for example is a White Hispanic.

I didn't intend for this question to get bogged down in such semantics, but oh well. 

Well you are the one that started the thread with the ill conceived Chris Matthews quip.  The question could have been asked without the snark and it wouldn't have blown up in your face.

I noticed you cherrypicked the thread to say nothing of cherrypicking the internet.  The one thing we can all agree on is the definition of "Hispanic" depends on who you ask and in what context.  And I really doubt anyone in Cuba, Mexico, or most of South or Central America knows or cares what a US census form says.  That is not some ultimate global authority on what Hispanic means.  What are you thinking?

The word Hispanic is tricky.  Chris Matthews has not written a book, given an hour talk, or written a doctoral thesis about the word Hispanic.  He just asked a clumsy question in the course of a fast moving interview.  As Vosem's massively ignorant posts show there really does need to be a broad discussion and understanding of various races, classes and ethnic groups in Cuba.  So even seeing a flicker of nuance blurted out by Chris Matthews is far more thought provoking than the fairytale garbage designed to cover up race crimes that Vosem so eagerly keeps repeating.

[Mr. Morden]

I noticed you cherrypicked the thread to say nothing of cherrypicking the internet.

Look, I "cherrypicked" the thread to respond to you, because you responded to me.  You're the one who said "Burying your head in the sand..." in response to my post, whereas others in the thread weren't quoting me.  Their posts didn't seem to be aimed at me.

I included the Chris Matthews clip just because I thought it was funny, but my sense of humor is weird.

Anyway, let's move on. 

[Taco Truck 🚚]

I included the Chris Matthews clip just because I thought it was funny, but my sense of humor is weird.

Sorry, I just wanted to post to shake up people's assumptions about the word Hispanic and our view of the historical situation in Cuba.  There's a lot of stuff we take as fact and just repeat robotically.  And that applies to all of us not just you.  And I certainly concede that Chris Matthews is a times an inartful guy.  He is not what I envisioned as the spokesman for this topic.

To your original question all I can say is I don't know.  Sorry for derailing your thread.

[tallguy23]

It'll be Rubio or Cruz, unless hell freezes over and it's Trump.

[ag]

?

Please note that in my definition of “Hispanic”, Cuban-Americans count as Hispanic.  That is, I don’t subscribe to the Chris Matthews definition.

The more important question of course, is, whether you count Jeb Bush as Hispanic? Because he, certainly, has more to do with it than Rubio.

[ag]

"Hispanic" or any other racial/ethnic category is a matter of identification and self-identification, rather than of any objective criteria. I guess, both Rubio and Bush would pass under the self-identification part, so the question is only how they are identified by others.

Bush, clearly, fails on that last test: few among Anglos or Latinos would think of him as anything other than Bush. He, however, has a pretty decent feeling of what is going on in the general Hispanic community: he speaks and understands the language and seems quite attentive to what he hears.

Rubio, of course, will pass the identification test as a Hispanic among the Anglos and the Cubans. Whether he would be viewed as a Hispanic by the bulk of the Hispanics themselves is another matter. So far, I doubt it. As, frankly, I doubt whether he is paying enough attention to the Hispanic America outside of Miami.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Cubans are definitely Hispanic lol

Not sure how anyone could try to say otherwise, really.