Chance the Next President is a Republican

[Yank2133]

35% as of November 18th 2015.

Things can change rapidly in the next 6-7 months, but I just don't see it. The economy is steady, Obama's approval ratings are above water, and Hillary is a fairly strong candidate. Add to the fact that the GOP field is uninspiring to say the least.

[Yank2133]

If President Obama continues to ignore the foreign policy challenges being provided by ISIS, Asad, Russia, China, et. al. and continues to ignore/marginalize the Congress? And Republicans continue to make the case for sound budgeting, immigration, and trade policies? Yeah, I think Republicans might actually come away with a win of the White House.

Unless the US is attacked or something, Americans generally don't care about foreign policy. What matters is the economy. If it is doing well, Hillary will win.....if not then the field is the strongest bet.

[bobloblaw]

35% as of November 18th 2015.

Things can change rapidly in the next 6-7 months, but I just don't see it. The economy is steady, Obama's approval ratings are above water, and Hillary is a fairly strong candidate. Add to the fact that the GOP field is uninspiring to say the least.

Obama's RCP approval rating is 6 points underwater.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[Yank2133]

35% as of November 18th 2015.

Things can change rapidly in the next 6-7 months, but I just don't see it. The economy is steady, Obama's approval ratings are above water, and Hillary is a fairly strong candidate. Add to the fact that the GOP field is uninspiring to say the least.

Obama's RCP approval rating is 6 points underwater.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Obama has been at 45% for the majority of his second term. His numbers have been fairly consistent.

[bobloblaw]

35% as of November 18th 2015.

Things can change rapidly in the next 6-7 months, but I just don't see it. The economy is steady, Obama's approval ratings are above water, and Hillary is a fairly strong candidate. Add to the fact that the GOP field is uninspiring to say the least.

Obama's RCP approval rating is 6 points underwater.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Obama has been at 45% for the majority of his second term. His numbers have been fairly consistent.

That is underwater....45%

The fact we have $2 gas, 5% unemployment and a President with 45% approval rating shows how deeply unpopular he is.

[SillyAmerican]

The main governing factors being if the GOP nominates a frothing nutbar, and if Hillary's campaign runs into a low-probability event.

Huh. I've never heard an FBI report called a "low-probability event" before.

[Mister Mets]

I'll go with about 55/60 percent.

History is on the Republican's side, the guys likeliest to win the nomination are pretty strong, Hillary has made some unforced errors, the left is making some unpopular arguments, and there's the open question of how well Democrats do in elections without Obama.

On the other hand, there's a shot Republicans will nominate someone weak, Hillary is a relatively strong candidate, and the economic environment does allow Democrats to win a third term.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

49/50 percent, because of Trump gaffes, the GOP may be looking at a 3rd straight defeat. Who is the weakest, and the Dems are able to paint as a Romney clone. A bankrupt CEO who is out of step with Latinos.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

15%

The main governing factors being if the GOP nominates a frothing nutbar, and if Hillary's campaign runs into a low-probability event.

I agree.  After watching McCain and Romney it is painfully obvious these elections are just for TV execs selling advertising time, political pundits and reporters, and giving Republicans hope.

The map is not in Republicans' favor and their primary is a clown show.  We are going to go through this entire exercise yet again and end with the same inevitable conclusion.  This election is Hillary's to lose.  If she can hold it together and there is no economic collapse or 9/11 scale terrorist attack she wins.

Think about how much of out time has been wasted in the past eight years.  Why waste so much time listening to Palin, Herman Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, Piyush Jindal, Huckabee, Rick Perry, etc.  The probability of any of those people ever holding any kind of public office going forward is basically zero.  Now we are wasting our time with Trump and Carson.