Chance the Next President is a Republican

[Del Tachi]

60ish%

[Cruzcrew]

It's a coin flip

[Xing]

Some Republicans seem to think that Hillary has an electability problem. Honestly, they should take a look at their own candidates. 45% seems about right. I actually think Republicans would have a higher chance of winning if the election were held today (more like 55%), since their candidates haven't been subject to a lot of scrutiny yet. Democrats could face head winds in 2016 if Obama is unpopular, but Republicans won't win by arguing "but it's my tuuuuuuurn!"

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

15%

The main governing factors being if the GOP nominates a frothing nutbar, and if Hillary's campaign runs into a low-probability event.

[Kingpoleon]

52.5%.

[tallguy23]

40-45% is pretty safe. Rubio has the best chance of  beating Hillary.

Cruz and Trump would be disasters.

[bobloblaw]

This board seems utterly convinced that Hillary has the edge on most Republicans, but I think it would take a spectacular failure for any Republican to lose to her.

85%

about 45-48%

Look with the unemployment rate likely at 4.5% in Nov 2016, only Al Gore is dumb enough to lose.

[Higgs]

It's a coin flip

[ProgressiveCanadian]

30%-40%

[bobloblaw]

15%

The main governing factors being if the GOP nominates a frothing nutbar, and if Hillary's campaign runs into a low-probability event.

Hillary having a senior moment is a pretty high probability event.

[DS0816]

Re: Chance the Next President is a Republican

President Donald Trump

President Ben Carson

President Marco Rubio

President Jeb Bush

President John Kasich

President Bobby Jindal

President Carly Fiorina

President Lindsey Graham

President Chris Christie

President Ted Cruz

President Mike Huckabee

President Jim Gilmore

President Rand Paul

President George Pataki

President Rick Santorum

Such a tough choice! (They're all so … wonderful.)

[Panhandle Progressive]

Somewhere between 25% and 33%. Only as high as 33% since the Dems have already won twice in a row.

[Ebsy]

Nate Silver has taught us that probabilities are meaningless.

[Broken System]

50%

Democrats have their built-in electoral college advantage. Republicans have Trump (high-energy, can motivate the base to go out and vote) and Rubio (can rally the base and gain substantial moderate support.) These balance out fairly well.

Sooner or later, the polls will show that Americans don't want the role of president to be run by criminals, dynasties, or lying politicians. The DNC may soon realize they made a big mistake in rolling out the red carpet to a golden-nomination throne for Clinton without actually giving the party a wide selection of viable, contrasting, and moderate options to choose from. There never was a choice. Although the GOP is a mess, they will be able to select their first home-grown representative  in the election in forever. If this nomination season goes as expected, the general election will be between arguably the biggest career politician in existence against an anti-politician outsider. The trends show that there are less people affiliating with either political party. People are tired of playing politics. That may become very apparent in this upcoming general election.

[Reaganfan]

50%

Democrats have their built-in electoral college advantage. Republicans have Trump (high-energy, can motivate the base to go out and vote) and Rubio (can rally the base and gain substantial moderate support.) These balance out fairly well.

Sooner or later, the polls will show that Americans don't want the role of president to be run by criminals, dynasties, or lying politicians. The DNC may soon realize they made a big mistake in rolling out the red carpet to a golden-nomination throne for Clinton without actually giving the party a wide selection of viable, contrasting, and moderate options to choose from. There never was a choice. Although the GOP is a mess, they will be able to select their first home-grown representative  in the election in forever. If this nomination season goes as expected, the general election will be between arguably the biggest career politician in existence against an anti-politician outsider. The trends show that there are less people affiliating with either political party. People are tired of playing politics. That may become very apparent in this upcoming general election.

Great summary. Regardless of your own political views, we all know that 2016 seems to be setting up as an anti-establishment election. People are tired of politicians from both sides. Regardless of your own party, you don't get more politician than Hillary Clinton. It's quite an albatross.

[EliteLX]

45%

[°Leprechaun]

45 is about what I'd say, in general.

Probably 55 if they manage to choose Rubio, Christie or maybe Kasich.

Probably around 33 with Trump, Carson or Cruz.

Yes, if Clinton is the nominee, this is a very good prediction. I don't think Christie would be her challenger. Sanders might be able to win, as well, but I think Clinton is more likely than Sanders.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given, that Trump has handed Clinton the 272 map, which includes the Southwest, with his mass deportation and perhaps Va or OH, the chances of a Clintom presidency is 50 percent or greater.

[ProudModerate2]

Primary Factors :

Republicans had a perfect opportunity to take the White House, but on the way the party caught Three Stooges syndrome. Now the primary process is a mess ...

The main governing factors being if the GOP nominates a frothing nutbar ...

Conclusion :

Probably around 33 with Trump, Carson or Cruz.

40-45% is pretty safe. Rubio has the best chance of  beating Hillary.

Agree that its around 40 to 45%.
Closer to 50-50 if its Rubio.

[King]

If they don't nominate Trump, 0%.

[ProudModerate2]

If they don't nominate Trump, 0%.

I'm curious King,
What is your percentages, if it is Trump ?

[King]

Likely high.

Despite this forum's opinions, Democrats are really in big trouble. They keep getting utterly wiped out and gutted in any off year election. It's been a horrible week for them politically.

First, it threw Obama off his Climate Change circle-jerk he was gonna discuss at the G20 Summit. Secondly, the badly timed interview about "ISIS being contained". Third, France, the ultimate appeasers, blowing the hell out of ISIS has many even in the mainstream press wondering why the hell we hadn't done that long before. I've even heard mainstream liberal news organizations discussing why we don't have a coalition like George Bush and Dan Quayle had during Operation Desert Storm back in '90 and '91.

Then finally America's correct paranoia has resulted in people I know who are single moms and don't even follow politics talking about how insane Obama is to want to let "these people" in our county.

Politically speaking, horrible week for the left. Election is still a year away, but if I were a Democrat I'd feel alot worse than a Republican.

I just want to remind you that exactly 4 years ago, you were making these same exact mental jujitsu arguments about how moms and minorities and whatnot were souring on the Democrats. It never came to fruition.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=143318.msg3078369#msg3078369

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[King]

If they don't nominate Trump, 0%.

I'm curious King,
What is your percentages, if it is Trump ?

Hillary would still be the favorite, but it's clear Trump is the only one capable of marketing himself as a winner and generate turnout on his side.

Marco Rubio is a loser, the equivalent of an anti-drugs ad in the 80s. Dolled up to look young and hip and cool but everyone sees through the facade.
Jeb Bush is a loser.
John Kasich is a megaloser.
Ted Cruz is too conservative for a general election.
The rest all have no shot of the nomination.

[bobloblaw]

If they don't nominate Trump, 0%.

I'm curious King,
What is your percentages, if it is Trump ?

Hillary would still be the favorite, but it's clear Trump is the only one capable of marketing himself as a winner and generate turnout on his side.

Marco Rubio is a loser, the equivalent of an anti-drugs ad in the 80s. Dolled up to look young and hip and cool but everyone sees through the facade.
Jeb Bush is a loser.
John Kasich is a megaloser.
Ted Cruz is too conservative for a general election.
The rest all have no shot of the nomination.

The problem with Trump is the loud mouth shtick runs out fast.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If they don't nominate Trump, 0%.

I'm curious King,
What is your percentages, if it is Trump ?

Hillary would still be the favorite, but it's clear Trump is the only one capable of marketing himself as a winner and generate turnout on his side.

Marco Rubio is a loser, the equivalent of an anti-drugs ad in the 80s. Dolled up to look young and hip and cool but everyone sees through the facade.
Jeb Bush is a loser.
John Kasich is a megaloser.
Ted Cruz is too conservative for a general election.
The rest all have no shot of the nomination.

The problem with Trump is the loud mouth shtick runs out fast.

does it? weren't y'all saying the same thing like almost half a year ago?