Chance the Next President is a Republican

[bobloblaw]

This board seems utterly convinced that Hillary has the edge on most Republicans, but I think it would take a spectacular failure for any Republican to lose to her.

85%

about 45-48%

Look with the unemployment rate likely at 4.5% in Nov 2016, only Al Gore is dumb enough to lose.

[bobloblaw]

15%

The main governing factors being if the GOP nominates a frothing nutbar, and if Hillary's campaign runs into a low-probability event.

Hillary having a senior moment is a pretty high probability event.

[bobloblaw]

If they don't nominate Trump, 0%.

I'm curious King,
What is your percentages, if it is Trump ?

Hillary would still be the favorite, but it's clear Trump is the only one capable of marketing himself as a winner and generate turnout on his side.

Marco Rubio is a loser, the equivalent of an anti-drugs ad in the 80s. Dolled up to look young and hip and cool but everyone sees through the facade.
Jeb Bush is a loser.
John Kasich is a megaloser.
Ted Cruz is too conservative for a general election.
The rest all have no shot of the nomination.

The problem with Trump is the loud mouth shtick runs out fast.

[bobloblaw]

35% as of November 18th 2015.

Things can change rapidly in the next 6-7 months, but I just don't see it. The economy is steady, Obama's approval ratings are above water, and Hillary is a fairly strong candidate. Add to the fact that the GOP field is uninspiring to say the least.

Obama's RCP approval rating is 6 points underwater.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

[bobloblaw]

35% as of November 18th 2015.

Things can change rapidly in the next 6-7 months, but I just don't see it. The economy is steady, Obama's approval ratings are above water, and Hillary is a fairly strong candidate. Add to the fact that the GOP field is uninspiring to say the least.

Obama's RCP approval rating is 6 points underwater.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Obama has been at 45% for the majority of his second term. His numbers have been fairly consistent.

That is underwater....45%

The fact we have $2 gas, 5% unemployment and a President with 45% approval rating shows how deeply unpopular he is.