A Nader-Bush Swing Voter Isn't as Unlikely As You Think

[Kingpoleon]

As evidenced here:

Gore, for running from the Clinton record.  The 90s were a very prosperous time for the country, he had no REAL reason to distance himself from that.  Clinton's infidelity wasn't going to sway very many people away from Gore.  This should have been his map.  

Besides, he had already tied himself to Clinton during the impeachment fiasco.  Gore's obsequious comments towards Clinton at the end of it are what ensured I wasn't voting for him in 2000.  I was supporting Bradley during the primaries, and then in the general I had a tough time choosing between Bush and Nader.  In the end, I voted Nader, but if he hadn't been on the ballot I would have voted Bush.

Gore has a very off putting personality which people genuinely dislike and therefore vote against. Some people with morals have qualms about voting for people with divisive, bad, or legitimately awful personalities.

[Asian Nazi]

IIRC there was exit polling that showed that something like 40% of Nader voters had Bush as their second choice. 

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

(Anecdotally) A couple my mom is friends with from high school has the appearance and views of white, relatively off, well-educated liberal couple. The husband at one point made known to me he'd voted for Bush as he "wasn't going to vote for that idiot Gore". Weird.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I could also see one that was perhaps a McCain loyalist who initially detested Bush for how he acted in the primary but would never vote for Gore either.


I also know of one guy, an old school New York punk rocker who was originally just a generic anti-establishment type and hated Gore for the PMRC hearings but initially didn't like the Republicans either so he voted for Nader in 2000 but then after 9-11 was converted into a born again neocon.

[TonyP63]

Maybe the rock hearings won nader enough votes from the anti establishment types lol

[The Mikado]

Yes, and Nader also didn't cost Gore NH. Heck, I would have been a Nader-Bush swing voter in 2000.

IIRC, Nader's own estimate after the fact was that 50% of his voters would vote Gore, 25% Bush, 25% not vote. If those numbers had held, Gore would've lost NH by about 3000 votes rather than 7000 votes IRL, sure.

That said, there's no reason to assume that number was accurate. Obviously, there were Nader supporters who would've gone to Bush, but I think that the number was significantly lower than a 2-1 ratio.