Clearly the outcome of 2016 will matter, but I'd say Northam has a much greater shot than Gillespie. Northam is a doctor and is not insanely leftist. Gillespie is a carpetbagging establishment Enron-lobbyist.
I'd respectfully disagree. Gillespie only lost his Senate race by apx. 18,000 votes against an incumbent Senator the media (and virtually every pollster) said numerous times was unbeatable. Had it seemed like he had a chance on election day he may have come out ahead. Gillespie is a huge favorite to win this race, as much as I hate to admit it. I also believe Northam will end up being a lackluster candidate.