Clearly the outcome of 2016 will matter, but I'd say Northam has a much greater shot than Gillespie. Northam is a doctor and is not insanely leftist. Gillespie is a carpetbagging establishment Enron-lobbyist.
I'd respectfully disagree. Gillespie only lost his Senate race by apx. 18,000 votes against an incumbent Senator the media (and virtually every pollster) said numerous times was unbeatable. Had it seemed like he had a chance on election day he may have come out ahead. Gillespie is a huge favorite to win this race, as much as I hate to admit it. I also believe Northam will end up being a lackluster candidate.
That's a fair view. 2014 was astounding, but I tend to view it as more of an aberration. Gillespie rope-a-doped through most of the campaign to discourage Warner (richest Senator) from burying Gillespie with ads or engaging in substantial GOTV efforts. By the time Gillespie started campaigning last year, it was late enough that Warner's money advantage was significantly degraded because at that point there was only a finite amount of available ad time left. The last 3 weeks I couldn't get in my car without hearing "Mark Warner voted with Obama 96% of the time" but only heard Warner ads on rare occasions. It was a very smart strategy by Gillespie, but I don't see the VA Dems falling for it again, especially in a year where there aren't national elections to distract. We'll see what happens though.
