If the GOP loses in 2016, who becomes the 2020 front-runner?
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  If the GOP loses in 2016, who becomes the 2020 front-runner?
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Poll
Question: If the GOP loses in 2016, who becomes the 2020 front-runner?
#1
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI)
 
#2
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)
 
#3
Gov. Susana Martinez (R-NM)
 
#4
Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC)
 
#5
Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)
 
#6
U.S. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH)
 
#7
U.S. Senator John Thune (R-SD)
 
#8
Businessman John Catsimatidis (R-NY)
 
#9
U.S. Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
 
#10
Gov. Rick Snyder (R-MI)
 
#11
U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
 
#12
Businessman Mark Cuban (R-TX)
 
#13
Businessman Herman Cain (R-GA)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 61

Author Topic: If the GOP loses in 2016, who becomes the 2020 front-runner?  (Read 9309 times)
Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #25 on: December 25, 2015, 10:12:58 PM »

Way too early to tell. Why not ask who the front runner is in 2024 if either party loses?
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tschandler
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« Reply #26 on: December 27, 2015, 01:19:58 AM »

If Trump or Cruz lose to Clinton it depends on the lessons the GOP takes from the loss.  Paul/Tea Party/Republican Liberty Caucus members are right now working their way through the State parties.  Several of the state GOP parties day to day workers are what you would definitely label as "libertarian republicans" especially those under 40.    I see it first hand in networking with them.  But the Paul name is still toxic in the "professional" GOP as well.  That is why Flake, Mark Sanford, Tom Cotton, Justin Amash may have better in-roads down the line. 

Or they could draw the wrong lessons and double down on Rubio's message which is essentially the Dubya message (hence why Rubio draws so much from Jeb).  The compassionate conservatism angle that is doubled down to appeal to Hispanic Catholics.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #27 on: December 27, 2015, 01:43:07 AM »

They should of already learned that Cruz & Trump polls like Romney in Southwest, not Appalachia, and Jeb or Rubio are more electable.  They will be beaten badly 69/31 to Clinton with Latinos.
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Frodo
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« Reply #28 on: February 21, 2016, 08:13:58 PM »

I think the GOP would probably take a good, hard look at South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.  
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #29 on: February 21, 2016, 08:21:17 PM »

I think the GOP would probably take a good, hard look at South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.  

Considering that Cain and Carson somehow made it as far as they did, I agree.  GOP voters love an Uncle Tom.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #30 on: February 21, 2016, 08:37:57 PM »

Guys, Ryan will not be a contender. Mark my words. It's like we haven't learned from this election yet.

I don't have a clue, but Rubio and few others may try again, and there will probably be a few outsider candidates who we don't know yet.
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hopper
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« Reply #31 on: February 21, 2016, 09:16:43 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2016, 09:18:33 PM by hopper »

I think the GOP would probably take a good, hard look at South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.  
I don't see Scott being President one day but I could see him  being"Governor of South Carolina" somewhere down the line maybe.
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hopper
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« Reply #32 on: February 21, 2016, 09:19:41 PM »

I think the GOP would probably take a good, hard look at South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.  

Considering that Cain and Carson somehow made it as far as they did, I agree.  GOP voters love an Uncle Tom.
Ha, Ha your funny like there is a certain way of being black.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: February 21, 2016, 10:42:09 PM »

Tom Cotton.
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Former Senator Haslam2020
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« Reply #34 on: February 21, 2016, 10:57:30 PM »

Your options are weird.

Front-runners: Paul, Ernst, Cruz, Cotton
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Former Senator Haslam2020
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« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2016, 10:59:15 PM »

Cain 2020? No.... Sorry but... no...
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5280
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« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2016, 02:48:21 AM »

What about Cory Gardner of Colorado?
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msnmllr
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« Reply #37 on: February 26, 2016, 01:54:58 PM »

Possibly Sam Brownback? However, being the Governor of Kansas, I fear that he wouldn't be too popular.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #38 on: February 26, 2016, 02:01:34 PM »

Possibly Sam Brownback? However, being the Governor of Kansas, I fear that he wouldn't be too popular.
No just no.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #39 on: February 26, 2016, 08:08:35 PM »

If Trump picks Christie as his running mate and the ticket loses, does Christie stand a decent chance of being the early polling leader for the 2020 GOP nomination?
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #40 on: February 26, 2016, 08:10:42 PM »

If Trump picks Christie as his running mate and the ticket loses, does Christie stand a decent chance of being the early polling leader for the 2020 GOP nomination?

No because he would become tainted by the loss like ryan/palin/edwards/lieberman before him
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #41 on: February 26, 2016, 08:30:13 PM »

If Trump picks Christie as his running mate and the ticket loses, does Christie stand a decent chance of being the early polling leader for the 2020 GOP nomination?

No because he would become tainted by the loss like ryan/palin/edwards/lieberman before him

Edwards and Ryan were hardly tainted.  They were both pretty popular within their parties after their ticket lost.  But Edwards was never going to beat either Clinton or Obama in '08, whether he'd been on the '04 ticket or not.  Ryan was popular with the GOP after 2012, and probably did better in early '16 polls than he would have otherwise, simply because of all the national exposure.

Lieberman wasn't tainted either.  He (narrowly) led polls for the '04 race after Gore opted out, but lost that lead relatively quickly.  He lost that lead because the Dems in '03/'04 were never going to nominate an uber-hawk, not because he was on the 2000 ticket.

Palin was tainted among the general electorate because of her performance on the trail (and I'm not anticipating that Christie would do as poorly as she did), but remained popular among Republicans.  She led many (but no, not all) of the early polls for the 2012 nomination.  And there's no way she would have done that if she wasn't on the ticket.

Keep in mind, in my post I didn't ask if Christie would be the odds on favorite to win the nomination.  Just whether the added exposure of being the VP nominee would give him a shot at leading the early polls for the 2020 nomination.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2016, 08:40:48 PM »

How about Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam? Southerner, articulate. He would be a good pick for the GOP.
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Orser67
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« Reply #43 on: February 27, 2016, 10:15:31 AM »

Rubio has a chance in the next few months to set himself up as the frontrunner for 2020. If not, I think it's Ryan. GOP primary voters will be less likely to nominate a non-politician after Trump loses in 2016 (in this scenario).
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #44 on: February 27, 2016, 05:43:28 PM »

If Trump or Cruz lose to Clinton it depends on the lessons the GOP takes from the loss.  Paul/Tea Party/Republican Liberty Caucus members are right now working their way through the State parties.  Several of the state GOP parties day to day workers are what you would definitely label as "libertarian republicans" especially those under 40.    I see it first hand in networking with them.  But the Paul name is still toxic in the "professional" GOP as well.  That is why Flake, Mark Sanford, Tom Cotton, Justin Amash may have better in-roads down the line. 

Or they could draw the wrong lessons and double down on Rubio's message which is essentially the Dubya message (hence why Rubio draws so much from Jeb).  The compassionate conservatism angle that is doubled down to appeal to Hispanic Catholics.

This.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #45 on: February 27, 2016, 05:48:43 PM »

If Trump or Cruz lose to Clinton it depends on the lessons the GOP takes from the loss.  Paul/Tea Party/Republican Liberty Caucus members are right now working their way through the State parties.  Several of the state GOP parties day to day workers are what you would definitely label as "libertarian republicans" especially those under 40.    I see it first hand in networking with them.  But the Paul name is still toxic in the "professional" GOP as well.  That is why Flake, Mark Sanford, Tom Cotton, Justin Amash may have better in-roads down the line. 

Or they could draw the wrong lessons and double down on Rubio's message which is essentially the Dubya message (hence why Rubio draws so much from Jeb).  The compassionate conservatism angle that is doubled down to appeal to Hispanic Catholics.

This.

Agreed. There's a very deep bench of Paul types in state legislatures and whatnot. The one bone I'd have to pick there is with the inclusion of Sanford. I doubt he's going anywhere outside the House after his affair. However, anything can happen.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #46 on: March 02, 2016, 10:37:03 PM »

Ben Sasse could be a strong contender if trump goes down in flames in November
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #47 on: March 06, 2016, 07:43:12 PM »

In the short term at least, I would imagine that Cruz and Rubio, if he is able to at least win the FL primary, would be the favorites. If Trump's running mate is someone relatively conventional, whoever that is will probably be the other one most talked about.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #48 on: March 10, 2016, 11:02:52 AM »

It'd be volatile and pretty wide open again. There would likely a big field again and establishment effort to correct whatever flaws let Trump win. As many as 5 2016 candidates are likely to run in 2020 if Trump loses to Hillary: Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Christie, Paul. And even a Trump loss would inspire one or more people with no political experience to run.
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