If the GOP loses in 2016, who becomes the 2020 front-runner?

[tschandler]

If Trump or Cruz lose to Clinton it depends on the lessons the GOP takes from the loss.  Paul/Tea Party/Republican Liberty Caucus members are right now working their way through the State parties.  Several of the state GOP parties day to day workers are what you would definitely label as "libertarian republicans" especially those under 40.    I see it first hand in networking with them.  But the Paul name is still toxic in the "professional" GOP as well.  That is why Flake, Mark Sanford, Tom Cotton, Justin Amash may have better in-roads down the line. 

Or they could draw the wrong lessons and double down on Rubio's message which is essentially the Dubya message (hence why Rubio draws so much from Jeb).  The compassionate conservatism angle that is doubled down to appeal to Hispanic Catholics.