Nat- PPP: GOP Has Clear Top 4; Clinton Dominant for Dems

[weixiaobao]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/11/gop-has-clear-top-4-clinton-dominant-for-dems-general-election-tight.html
Trump 26
Carson 19
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 4
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Paul 2
Graham 1
Pataki 1
the rest 0
undecided 2

Clinton 59
Sanders 26
O'Malley 7
Not sure 8

[King]

Notsurementum!

[Maxwell]

Notsurementum!

We know Dr. Pathological's favorables are shrinking thanks to TRUMP's amazing speech. We know Cruz has doubled his numbers and Jeb?!?! has halved his. Beyond that, the status quo is true. WHICH IS GREAT.

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

[mencken]

Carson is actually up slightly in this poll (and in Bloomberg as well). Really, the only candidates who have had significant declines are Bush and Fiorina. One would have thought Rubio would gain more given how much Bush dropped since their last poll (Rubio did not change at all in this poll). Kind of throws a wrench into the conventional wisdom of this race if support from declining establishment candidates primarily goes to Cruz¹.

¹ Of course, this is easily explainable if one views Trump and Carson as functional decoys.

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

You realize Trump is down slightly from their last poll, right?

[Maxwell]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

You realize Trump is down slightly from their last poll, right?

The difference is negligible - in terms of long term indicators Trump is just as strong as he was months ago.

[Senator Cris]

Also... Carson/Trump 50/41
Trump/Bush 56/34

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

You realize Trump is down slightly from their last poll, right?

The difference is negligible - in terms of long term indicators Trump is just as strong as he was months ago.

It also means that he has hit a ceiling

[weixiaobao]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

You realize Trump is down slightly from their last poll, right?

The difference is negligible - in terms of long term indicators Trump is just as strong as he was months ago.

It also means that he has hit a ceiling

This isn't his ceiling. 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

From the end of August to early September.  He got over 30%.  His ceiling (depend on who drop out) probably somewhere between 30 to 40% (from the impression of his 2nd choices from various polls).

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

You realize Trump is down slightly from their last poll, right?

The difference is negligible - in terms of long term indicators Trump is just as strong as he was months ago.

It also means that he has hit a ceiling

This isn't his ceiling. 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

From the end of August to early September.  He got over 30%.  His ceiling (depend on who drop out) probably somewhere between 30 to 40% (from the impression of his 2nd choices from various polls).

Still I think Trump will last until he faces another candidate one on one in the primaries and loses when his base of morons can't pull him to victory anymore

[Mehmentum]

Change since PPP's last National Poll in the beginning of October:
Cruz: +7
Carson: +2
Rubio: +0
Huckabee: +0
Paul: +0
Trump: -1
Kasich: -1
Christie: -1
Fiorina: -2
Bush: -5

So Cruz is the big gainer according to PPP, with Bush being the big loser.  Everyone else's moment is within the margin of error.

For the Dems:
Clinton: +17
O'Malley: +6
Sanders: +2

[Broken System]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

You realize Trump is down slightly from their last poll, right?

This is laughable. The last national polls from Bloomberg and PPP were in mid-September and early-October. That was well before Carson's national polling average peaked in early November. A lot has changed in 1-2 months, so it is simply inaccurate to compare the two polls to map progress. What matters is that Carson was neck-and-neck with Trump for a week and now these polls show him lagging behind.

[Maxwell]

Once again, Trump is the candidate of Republican Moderates - Trump leads among moderates by a margin of 31 to 13. He only leads among Somewhat Conservatives by a margin of 28 to 22, and loses Very Conservative voters not to Ben Carson, but to Ted Cruz 29 to 24 (Carson in third with those voters at 22).

The reason Cruz wins Very Conservative voters but still only polls at 14% is because he literally has 1% of moderates and 10% with somewhat conservative voters. Carson suffers with moderates as well, only polling at 13% with moderates despite ranking a solid 22% with both kinds of conservatives.

[pikachu]

That Rubio vs Trump number should be very concerning for the establishment. If I remember correctly, Rubio typically had a decent lead in head-to-heads against him.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Also... Carson/Trump 50/41
Trump/Bush 56/34

So in other words:

Rubio > Cruz
Cruz > Trump
Trump > Rubio

Voters make no sense.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Also... Carson/Trump 50/41
Trump/Bush 56/34

So in other words:

Rubio > Cruz
Cruz > Trump
Trump > Rubio

Voters make no sense.

It makes perfect sense if you think of it like Rock, Paper, Scissors.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Also... Carson/Trump 50/41
Trump/Bush 56/34

So in other words:

Rubio > Cruz
Cruz > Trump
Trump > Rubio

Voters make no sense.

It makes perfect sense if you think of it like Rock, Paper, Scissors.

That's exactly what I was thinking.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2nd choice of O'Malley supporters:

Sanders 31%
Clinton 22%
Not Sure 47%

[Torie]

That Rubio vs Trump number should be very concerning for the establishment. If I remember correctly, Rubio typically had a decent lead in head-to-heads against him.

That was the piece of data that leapt out to me, and it is concerning. If Trump hangs in there like this, it is going to get very ugly. Hillary must be pleased.

[muon2]

Also... Carson/Trump 50/41
Trump/Bush 56/34

So in other words:

Rubio > Cruz
Cruz > Trump
Trump > Rubio

Voters make no sense.

That Rubio vs Trump number should be very concerning for the establishment. If I remember correctly, Rubio typically had a decent lead in head-to-heads against him.

That was the piece of data that leapt out to me, and it is concerning. If Trump hangs in there like this, it is going to get very ugly. Hillary must be pleased.

The overall picture suggests that there's a lot of soft support, and it doesn't break down into the lanes of establishment/outsider as is often described. If it did you'd see clear groupings in the head-to-head match ups. Until some real votes come in I expect polls like this to remain fluid.

[Why]

Looks like Trump's 90-minute policy speech on Ben Carson did the trick! It really will go down as a top twenty, maybe even top ten honestly, speech.

You realize Trump is down slightly from their last poll, right?

This is laughable. The last national polls from Bloomberg and PPP were in mid-September and early-October. That was well before Carson's national polling average peaked in early November. A lot has changed in 1-2 months, so it is simply inaccurate to compare the two polls to map progress. What matters is that Carson was neck-and-neck with Trump for a week and now these polls show him lagging behind.

Trump leading Carson by a few points is certainly not bad news, however he does seem to be slightly off his polling peak and showing no sign of gaining the extra support needed to win the nomination. With his extremely high profile and his divisive nature this is worrying. I was proven wrong in that I thought he would not last this long in the polls so I might be wrong again, but I cannot see him getting enough support to win the nomination.

[Wells]

Clinton 59
Sanders 26

RIP Sanders