WI: Marquette Law School Poll: Carson 22%, Trump 19%, Rubio 19%, Clinton up 9%

[Gass3268]

Republican:

Carson 22%
Trump 19%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 9%
Bush 6%
Fiorina 5%
Christie 4%
Huckabee 1%
Kasich 1%
Paul 1%

Democratic:

Clinton 50%
Sanders 41%
O'Malley 2%

Full poll will be posted shortly. Link To Live Twitter Feed

[Kingpoleon]

Good news for Sanders.

[Skye]

The question is whether Sanders will survive until then.

[Mehmentum]

The 'progressive midwest', Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, is one of Sanders' strongest regions, second only to upper New England.  It also happens to be one of Trump's weakest regions. 

[Senator Cris]

Changes from September:

Carson +6
Rubio +5
Cruz +4
Christie +1
Bush - 1
Trump - 1
Huckabee - 2
Kasich - 2
Paul - 4
Fiorina - 6

[RI]

Release

[RI]

By media market:

Milwaukee City: Trump 24, Carson 22, Rubio 21, Cruz 14, Bush 14, Christie 3
Milwaukee Suburbs: Rubio 21, Carson 17, Cruz 10, Fiorina 10, Trump 9, Bush 6, Christie 5
Madison: Rubio 23, Carson 21, Trump 19, Cruz 14, Bush 5, Christie 4, Paul 3
Green Bay: Trump 29, Carson 26, Rubio 11, Bush 8, Cruz 4, Fiorina 3, Christie 2
Rest of State: Carson 27, Trump 23, Rubio 20, Cruz 8, Christie 6, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 4, Bush 2

Milwaukee City	Clinton 58	Sanders 35	O'Malley 3
Milwaukee Suburbs	Clinton 54	Sanders 34	O'Malley 1
Madison	Sanders 55	Clinton 38	O'Malley 2
Green Bay	Sanders 44	Clinton 43	O'Malley 3
Rest of State	Clinton 57	Sanders 38	O'Malley 1

[Ebsy]

Further confirmation that Madison is one of the worst cities in the nation.

[Badger]

By media market:

Milwaukee City: Trump 24, Carson 22, Rubio 21, Cruz 14, Bush 14, Christie 3
Milwaukee Suburbs: Rubio 21, Carson 17, Cruz 10, Fiorina 10, Trump 9, Bush 6, Christie 5
Madison: Rubio 23, Carson 21, Trump 19, Cruz 14, Bush 5, Christie 4, Paul 3
Green Bay: Trump 29, Carson 26, Rubio 11, Bush 8, Cruz 4, Fiorina 3, Christie 2
Rest of State: Carson 27, Trump 23, Rubio 20, Cruz 8, Christie 6, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 4, Bush 2

Milwaukee City	Clinton 58	Sanders 35	O'Malley 3
Milwaukee Suburbs	Clinton 54	Sanders 34	O'Malley 1
Madison	Sanders 55	Clinton 38	O'Malley 2
Green Bay	Sanders 44	Clinton 43	O'Malley 3
Rest of State	Clinton 57	Sanders 38	O'Malley 1

f

Trumps weakness in the Milwaukee suburbs speaks volumes. That is where the motherload of the state's Republican voters come from.

[Gass3268]

Further confirmation that Madison is one of the worst cities in the nation.

Them are fightin words!

[Gass3268]

By media market:

Milwaukee City: Trump 24, Carson 22, Rubio 21, Cruz 14, Bush 14, Christie 3
Milwaukee Suburbs: Rubio 21, Carson 17, Cruz 10, Fiorina 10, Trump 9, Bush 6, Christie 5
Madison: Rubio 23, Carson 21, Trump 19, Cruz 14, Bush 5, Christie 4, Paul 3
Green Bay: Trump 29, Carson 26, Rubio 11, Bush 8, Cruz 4, Fiorina 3, Christie 2
Rest of State: Carson 27, Trump 23, Rubio 20, Cruz 8, Christie 6, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 4, Bush 2

Milwaukee City	Clinton 58	Sanders 35	O'Malley 3
Milwaukee Suburbs	Clinton 54	Sanders 34	O'Malley 1
Madison	Sanders 55	Clinton 38	O'Malley 2
Green Bay	Sanders 44	Clinton 43	O'Malley 3
Rest of State	Clinton 57	Sanders 38	O'Malley 1

f

Trumps weakness in the Milwaukee suburbs speaks volumes. That is where the motherload of the state's Republican voters come from.

The suburbs are what saved Romney in 2012. They are very much an "establishment" GOP region.

[Mr. Morden]

By media market:

Milwaukee City: Trump 24, Carson 22, Rubio 21, Cruz 14, Bush 14, Christie 3
Milwaukee Suburbs: Rubio 21, Carson 17, Cruz 10, Fiorina 10, Trump 9, Bush 6, Christie 5
Madison: Rubio 23, Carson 21, Trump 19, Cruz 14, Bush 5, Christie 4, Paul 3
Green Bay: Trump 29, Carson 26, Rubio 11, Bush 8, Cruz 4, Fiorina 3, Christie 2
Rest of State: Carson 27, Trump 23, Rubio 20, Cruz 8, Christie 6, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 4, Bush 2

Milwaukee City	Clinton 58	Sanders 35	O'Malley 3
Milwaukee Suburbs	Clinton 54	Sanders 34	O'Malley 1
Madison	Sanders 55	Clinton 38	O'Malley 2
Green Bay	Sanders 44	Clinton 43	O'Malley 3
Rest of State	Clinton 57	Sanders 38	O'Malley 1

f

Trumps weakness in the Milwaukee suburbs speaks volumes. That is where the motherload of the state's Republican voters come from.

Well, that's why he's losing the state overall, yes.  But for candidates who don't win the statewide popular vote, you can still get delegates by winning some congressional districts.  And on that score, it's better to actually have your supporters live in the less Republican parts of the state, because of the fact that each CD counts the same.

[Badger]

By media market:

Milwaukee City: Trump 24, Carson 22, Rubio 21, Cruz 14, Bush 14, Christie 3
Milwaukee Suburbs: Rubio 21, Carson 17, Cruz 10, Fiorina 10, Trump 9, Bush 6, Christie 5
Madison: Rubio 23, Carson 21, Trump 19, Cruz 14, Bush 5, Christie 4, Paul 3
Green Bay: Trump 29, Carson 26, Rubio 11, Bush 8, Cruz 4, Fiorina 3, Christie 2
Rest of State: Carson 27, Trump 23, Rubio 20, Cruz 8, Christie 6, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 4, Bush 2

Milwaukee City	Clinton 58	Sanders 35	O'Malley 3
Milwaukee Suburbs	Clinton 54	Sanders 34	O'Malley 1
Madison	Sanders 55	Clinton 38	O'Malley 2
Green Bay	Sanders 44	Clinton 43	O'Malley 3
Rest of State	Clinton 57	Sanders 38	O'Malley 1

f

Trumps weakness in the Milwaukee suburbs speaks volumes. That is where the motherload of the state's Republican voters come from.

The suburbs are what saved Romney in 2012. They are very much an "establishment" GOP region.

True, but he then should be running at least competative with Carson. there. if he was, he'd likely be leading.

[Badger]

By media market:

Milwaukee City: Trump 24, Carson 22, Rubio 21, Cruz 14, Bush 14, Christie 3
Milwaukee Suburbs: Rubio 21, Carson 17, Cruz 10, Fiorina 10, Trump 9, Bush 6, Christie 5
Madison: Rubio 23, Carson 21, Trump 19, Cruz 14, Bush 5, Christie 4, Paul 3
Green Bay: Trump 29, Carson 26, Rubio 11, Bush 8, Cruz 4, Fiorina 3, Christie 2
Rest of State: Carson 27, Trump 23, Rubio 20, Cruz 8, Christie 6, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 4, Bush 2

Milwaukee City	Clinton 58	Sanders 35	O'Malley 3
Milwaukee Suburbs	Clinton 54	Sanders 34	O'Malley 1
Madison	Sanders 55	Clinton 38	O'Malley 2
Green Bay	Sanders 44	Clinton 43	O'Malley 3
Rest of State	Clinton 57	Sanders 38	O'Malley 1

f

Trumps weakness in the Milwaukee suburbs speaks volumes. That is where the motherload of the state's Republican voters come from.

Well, that's why he's losing the state overall, yes.  But for candidates who don't win the statewide popular vote, you can still get delegates by winning some congressional districts.  And on that score, it's better to actually have your supporters live in the less Republican parts of the state, because of the fact that each CD counts the same.

That's a good point. I wonder if Trump's campaign can show enough discipline and strategic planning to maximize delegate pickups in states he loses like Obama did in 08 (think PA or Nevada). That might work well for a campaign like his with a relatively high vote floor but relatively low ceiling.

[Eraserhead]

The 'progressive midwest', Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, is one of Sanders' strongest regions, second only to upper New England.  It also happens to be one of Trump's weakest regions.  

I imagine the west coast is pretty strong for him too. He's doing better in California than he is nationally and I'm sure he's doing relatively well in Oregon and Washington although they don't seem to be polled much.