Morning Consult Senate rankings

[MT Treasurer]

From most likely to least likely to flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Florida
4. Nevada
5. Pennsylvania
6. New Hampshire
7. Ohio
8. Colorado
9. Missouri
10. Indiana
11. Arkansas
12. Arizona
13. North Carolina
14. Kentucky
15. Louisiana
16. Washington
17. Alaska
18. Iowa
19. Maryland
20. California
21. Georgia
22. South Carolina
23. Alabama
24. Oregon
25. New York
26. Vermont
27. Connecticut
28. Hawaii
29. Oklahoma
30. Kansas
31. South Dakota
32. North Dakota
33. Utah
34. Idaho

http://morningconsult.com/2015/11/the-senate-scramble/

[Maxwell]

Pennsylvania is less likely to flip than New Hampshire or Ohio in my opinion, but otherwise this is a solid if a bit obvious list.

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas at 11? Ridiculous. Otherwise its fine.

[RINO Tom]

Arkansas at 11? Ridiculous. Otherwise its fine.

In 2016?  Probably.  But I'm not on the Atlas train of thinking Arkansas and West Virginia are on their way to becoming Idaho and Wyoming ... they're just not.

[Holmes]

Arkansas at 11? Ridiculous. Otherwise its fine.

You think so?

[/]

Hilarious

[Xing]

I'd move NH above PA and possibly NV as well. AR should be somewhere in the 20s. I'd put IN below NC, and switch KY and LA. Otherwise, a decent list, though easily half of these seats really have a 0% chance of flipping, so it doesn't really pay to rank them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RON Johnson,  Mark Kirk and Kelly Ayotte are most likely to go first. Then marginal seats of FL & NV. Then, Rob Portman & Toomey & Bennett are in the third group. The others are long shots

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas at 11? Ridiculous. Otherwise its fine.

You think so?

Yes. See what happened to every Arkansas Dem last cycle?

[Holmes]

Arkansas at 11? Ridiculous. Otherwise its fine.

You think so?

Oh, I thought you meant it should be higher. Yeah. At least Democrats are fielding a candidate...
Yes. See what happened to every Arkansas Dem last cycle?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Okay, why is Arkansas higher than Arizona, Louisiana, and North Carolina? Didn't everyone see what happened last year in Arkansas? Democrats are not winning there in any federal race, no matter what.

On the other side, we have a few scenarios where a deeply unpopular McCain or a Vitter damaged by an unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign or Richard Burr in a far more purple state could lose. Arkansas is nothing close to a swing state. Give me a break.