LA- JMC: Vitter surging and Edwards collapsing

[Talleyrand]

https://t.co/FIqxYcs65w

Edwards- 47 (51)
Vitter- 43 (35)

Glorious news! Can't wait to see the creaming of Edwards by Vitter tomorrow night. He is gaining at an unprecedented rate!!!

[Skye]

Undecideds break almost evenly for both. Yup, it's going to be close.

[Gass3268]

[DrScholl]

It's a settling effect. Vitter was never going to get under 40%, but he's still not doing better than 43% in any poll, which is telling. He's done.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Edwards is still near, at, or above 50 in almost every poll. Vitter is at best mired in the low 40s. We all expected it to close up somewhat, and that's what's happening. I still am near-certain of an Edwards victory.

[The Other Castro]

Blacks break 88-3 and are 9% undecided, while Whites break 30-61 and are 10% undecided. The 46-44 Edwards lead among likely voters only is concerning though. If Vitter wins this, Dems should just accept the South as lost. The Syrian refugee question suggests it's not playing a large role in people's decisions.

[Zache]

Looks like the fantasy is almost over. We'll see tomorrow.

[user12345]

Don't f**k this up Louisiana....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nungesser leads 51-30, Landry leads 45-27

This poll is worrying, but the fact that Edwards is at 49% with Leaners means that Vitter, if he wins, is likely not going to win by the 10 point margin that some have suggested.

Still, I stand by my earlier prediction of 52-48 Edwards.

[windjammer]

Of course Vitter is going to win.

Do you really believe the LA whites are going to vote for a democrat when basically a black democrat is the president?

This is the south guys.

[Adam Griffin]

Hold up - why are there two separate polls/threads from this same pollster within an hour of each other than have different totals?

EDIT: Oh, the first one is from the same poll but of the undecideds only.

[The Other Castro]

Hold up - why are there two separate polls/threads from this same pollster within an hour of each other than have different totals?

One includes leaners.

[DrScholl]

On twitter I read about another tracking poll that has Edwards up 50-40 and the pollster did not find any bump for Vitter. Vitter is toast, it's time to accept it and move on.

[Adam Griffin]

Hold up - why are there two separate polls/threads from this same pollster within an hour of each other than have different totals?

One includes leaners.

Actually, that 49-44 appears to be just the undecideds, rather than everyone included.

[RI]

Hold up - why are there two separate polls/threads from this same pollster within an hour of each other than have different totals?

One includes leaners.

Actually, that 49-44 appears to be just the undecideds, rather than everyone included.

Eh, the release contradicts itself. At the top, it says 49-44 including leaners, but below it says 49-44 if undecided in first question. If the latter were true, the topline would be 52-47 Edwards.

[Maxwell]

Vitter still hasn't ever had a poll showing him above low 40s. Not saying that the momentum isn't on his side, it is, but that's concerning for a guy who has a huge name recognition advantage still.

[windjammer]

Of course Vitter is going to win.

Do you really believe the LA whites are going to vote for a democrat when basically a black democrat is the president?

This is the south guys.

Yeah, that's why noted racist state Tennessee voted for two Democratic Senators and a Democratic governor in 1994 - if Bill Clinton only had been black, they obviously would have lost. Oh wait...

On twitter I read about another tracking poll that has Edwards up 50-40 and the pollster did not find any bump for Vitter. Vitter is toast, it's time to accept it and move on.

^^^ LA polls actually underestimated Mary Landrieu's showing in the runoff by a considerable margin.

Glad to see we agree on this matter

[windjammer]

Of course Vitter is going to win.

Do you really believe the LA whites are going to vote for a democrat when basically a black democrat is the president?

This is the south guys.

Yeah, that's why noted racist state Tennessee voted for two Democratic Senators and a Democratic governor in 1994 - if Bill Clinton only had been black, they obviously would have lost. Oh wait...

On twitter I read about another tracking poll that has Edwards up 50-40 and the pollster did not find any bump for Vitter. Vitter is toast, it's time to accept it and move on.

^^^ LA polls actually underestimated Mary Landrieu's showing in the runoff by a considerable margin.

Glad to see we agree on this matter

The Senate composition following the 2004 Senate elections:



Not much has changed since then, right? During the Obama presidency, Democrats have lost three Senate seats in the South (AR, AR, LA) and gained two Senate seats in VA. If Hillary Clinton was president right now, do you seriously think Lincoln, Pryor and Landrieu would still be in the Senate? The national Democratic party is simply too liberal for the deep South, get over it.

Obama wasn't the president in 2004.
To answer your question, I don't know. Maybe I guess.
The national democratic party is too pro-black for the south.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obama wasn't the president in 2004.

Well, that's exactly my point.

The national democratic party is too pro-black for the south.

Are you calling every state that voted for Romney and/or Republican in 2010/2014 racist? Democrats blaming every loss on racism, low turnout, voter fraud, voter suppression, big money, the Kochs, etc. etc. will lead to an even bigger Republican landslide in 2018. You guys will be lucky if there's still a single Democratic Romney state Senator left after the 2018 elections.

Manchin probably survives. But he should have a serious challenger.

[Zache]

Obama wasn't the president in 2004.

Well, that's exactly my point.

The national democratic party is too pro-black for the south.

Are you calling every state that voted for Romney and/or Republican in 2010/2014 racist? Democrats blaming every loss on racism, low turnout, voter fraud, voter suppression, big money, the Kochs, etc. etc. will lead to an even bigger Republican landslide in 2018. You guys will be lucky if there's still a single Democratic Romney state Senator left after the 2018 elections.

Can 2018 be any worse? Dems are at a nadir right now.

[windjammer]

Obama wasn't the president in 2004.

Well, that's exactly my point.

The national democratic party is too pro-black for the south.

Are you calling every state that voted for Romney and/or Republican in 2010/2014 racist? Democrats blaming every loss on racism, low turnout, voter fraud, voter suppression, big money, the Kochs, etc. etc. will lead to an even bigger Republican landslide in 2018. You guys will be lucky if there's still a single Democratic Romney state Senator left after the 2018 elections.

No, I'm talking about the South.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I think that Edwards will win, but then again I also thought Conway would win.  So I don't know, I guess it could go either way.  And this is coming from someone who would probably vote for Edwards.

[Türkisblau]

lol I just love the whole South is racist b/c they're voting against Democrats theory. I'll just repost one of my responses to this hilarious idea from AAD (can't believe I'm agreeing with IndyRep.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

TNF's response is also pretty damn spot on:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Obama wasn't the president in 2004.

Well, that's exactly my point.

The national democratic party is too pro-black for the south.

Are you calling every state that voted for Romney and/or Republican in 2010/2014 racist? Democrats blaming every loss on racism, low turnout, voter fraud, voter suppression, big money, the Kochs, etc. etc. will lead to an even bigger Republican landslide in 2018. You guys will be lucky if there's still a single Democratic Romney state Senator left after the 2018 elections.

No, I'm talking about the South.

So let me get this straight: the South is racist when they vote for Republicans, but not when they vote for Democrats?

[windjammer]

The level of hypocrisy is funny.

I will just post the exit polls of one southern state:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/#

89% of the whites voted for Romney in MS, 96% of the blacks voted for Obama.

But yes, #Colorofyourskindoesntmatter