Requirement for next debate

[Likely Voter]

With the new ABC national poll, Paul no longer qualifies for the main debate. Kasich also dropped below the national 3.5% requirement, but still makes it in via his NH average. Fiorina and Christie remain below the national average but also still qualify via NH and/or IA polls. The new Boston Globe NH poll isn't one approved by CNN so doesn't change the NH average.


MAIN DEBATE

Candidate   US    /    NH    /    IA
Trump   25.80    /    23.50    /    25.00
Carson   22.40    /    13.50    /    23.00
Rubio   12.00    /    12.50    /    13.00
Cruz   9.80    /    8.50    /    11.00
Bush   5.60    /    7.50    /    5.00
Kasich   3.40    /    8.75    /    2.00
Fiorina   3.20    /    4.50    /    4.00
Christie   2.60    /    6.25    /    3.00

EARLY DEBATE

Paul   3.40    /    3.50    /    2.00
Huckabee   2.80    /    0.75    /    2.00
Santorum   0.80    /    0.50    /    0.00
Pataki   0.40    /    0.50    /    0.00
Graham   0.40    /    0.75    /    2.00


 

[Senator Cris]

A (very early) attempt to determine the candidates's positions on stage.
Last time, to determine that, CNN did an average of the 2 different criteria. I'm assuming they'll do the same this time.

MAIN DEBATE:

Trump 24.76
Carson 16.30
Rubio 12.50
Cruz 9.77
Bush 6.00
Kasich 4.72
Christie 3.95
Fiorina 3.90

EARLY DEBATE:

Paul 2.97
Huckabee 1.85
Graham 1.05
Santorum 0.43
Pataki 0.30

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Great to see Paul in the undercard where he belongs!

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like there's still an outside chance that Fiorina gets knocked out of the main debate.  If she gets some really bad polls for both Iowa and NH, she's down to the kiddie table.  In contrast, Christie and Kasich both have had strong enough #s in NH, that it's hard to imagine them not making it.  We're already halfway through the polling period, and I doubt there'll be polls from any good pollsters taken over Thanksgiving, so there are probably only so many IA and NH polls to go.

So realistically, I don't see the main debate being smaller than 7 people, since Fiorina's the only one left who might get knocked out.  On the flip side, both Huckabee and Paul still have time to turn things around.  Though for Huck, it's pretty tough.  He needs a bunch of national polls in which he's at 4% or higher, and that's a longshot.

[Lyin' Steve]

Or we could just pay someone to take Fiorina's name off the invitee list.
I doubt we'd even have to pay them, actually.
Why is she still running for president?  Nobody wants her to be president and nobody wants her in the debates.
Who still supports her?  She's off the Pareto frontier on every possible measure.  Cruz is a better debater and speaker.  Rubio is more substantive and inspiring.  Trump is more charismatic and powerful.  Carson is more sympathetic and soft.

[Mr. Morden]

New Fox poll has Paul at just 2% nationally, taking him further away from the 3.5% average that needs, and so making it more likely that he'll be stuck at the kiddie table.  Likewise, Huck at 3% is (barely) better than his average but still not good enough.  Needs some polls at 4% in order to bring up the average enough to qualify for the grownups debate.

[JonathanSwift]

With the new Fox News national poll, the averages are as follows:

MAIN DEBATE

Candidate   US    /    NH    /    IA
Trump   26.17    /    23.50    /    25.00
Carson   21.67    /    13.50    /    23.00
Rubio   12.33    /    12.50    /    13.00
Cruz   10.50    /    8.50    /    11.00
Bush   5.50    /    7.50    /    5.00
Kasich   3.17    /    8.75    /    2.00
Fiorina   3.17    /    4.50    /    4.00
Christie   2.67   /    6.25    /    3.00

EARLY DEBATE

Paul   3.17    /    3.50    /    2.00
Huckabee   2.83   /    0.75    /    2.00
Santorum   0.67    /    0.50    /    0.00
Pataki   0.50    /    0.50    /    0.00
Graham   0.33    /    0.75    /    2.00

[Angel of Death]

I don't think I like how these polling requirements make these two states even more important.

[mencken]

I don't think I like how these polling requirements make these two states even more important.

Take it up with the primary calendar, not the debate venue. The fact is that in past primaries, polling in Iowa and New Hampshire has been far more predictive than nationwide polling.

[Senator Cris]

There is a Monmouth poll conducted after October 29 and I think it should be included:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222244.0

[JonathanSwift]

There is a Monmouth poll conducted after October 29 and I think it should be included:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222244.0

It's an automated phone poll, so it doesn't count.

[The Other Castro]

There's a new Quinnipiac Iowa poll coming out tomorrow, which I'm guessing will have Fiorina at 3 or below and get rid of her Iowa safety net in case her New Hampshire numbers fall as well.

[Maxwell]

There's a new Quinnipiac Iowa poll coming out tomorrow, which I'm guessing will have Fiorina at 3 or below and get rid of her Iowa safety net in case her New Hampshire numbers fall as well.

Excited to see Fiorina sent back to the undercard debate!

[The Other Castro]

There's a new Quinnipiac Iowa poll coming out tomorrow, which I'm guessing will have Fiorina at 3 or below and get rid of her Iowa safety net in case her New Hampshire numbers fall as well.

Excited to see Fiorina sent back to the undercard debate!

Once back, she'll mix up her soundbites and accidentally complain about only getting 78 seconds on the minute as compared to the men in the main debate.

[/]

New Hampshire seems to be letting a lot of candidates hold on...

And this debate is in like a month anyway lol

[Senator Cris]

With the new Quinnipiac Iowa poll, the averages are as follows:

MAIN DEBATE

Candidate   US    /    NH    /    IA
Trump   26.17    /    23.50    /    25.00
Carson   21.67    /    13.50    /    20.50
Rubio   12.33    /    12.50    /    13.00
Cruz   10.50    /    8.50    /    17.00
Bush   5.50    /    7.50    /    4.50
Kasich   3.17    /    8.75    /    1.50
Fiorina   3.17    /    4.50    /    3.50
Christie   2.67   /    6.25    /    2.50

EARLY DEBATE

Paul   3.17    /    3.50    /    3.50
Huckabee   2.83   /    0.75    /    2.00
Santorum   0.67    /    0.50    /    1.00
Pataki   0.50    /    0.50    /    0.00
Graham   0.33    /    0.75    /    1.00


Paul got 5% in the Quinnipiac poll and improved from 2% to 3.5%. Still not enough.
Fiorina got 3% and failed below the 4% threshold.

[Likely Voter]

Between Fiorina and Paul, hard to say where each of them falls. I wouldn't be surprised if by the time of the debate Paul was in and she was out.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Less than two weeks to go on this, so not a whole lot of time left to change things.  Still, it wouldn't take all that much to knock Fiorina down to the kiddie table or Paul up to the big boy table, so those two remain on the bubble.  Everyone else seems very unlikely to move (though I guess all we need is one poll with Gilmore at 1%, and he makes the kiddie table).

[Lyin' Steve]

Have the standings changed at all?  When is the cutoff?

Can someone please be nice and say they support Gilmore the next time you get called for one of these things.  He's not a bad guy.

[Mr. Morden]

Have the standings changed at all?  When is the cutoff?

The cutoff is Dec. 13th.  No change in the standings since Cris's post on Nov. 24.  The live interview pollsters went dormant over Thanksgiving week.

[Likely Voter]

Fiorina and Paul are no doubt aware of their situation. It will be interesting to see what they do about it in the next couple of weeks (with Fiorina fighting to stay in and Paul fighting to get back in). Huckabee may also try to break back out of the kiddie table with some antics.

[I support Sanders]

I was hoping they'd start to winnow the field a bit more. When I first read the rules, I was hoping it was 3.5% nationally AND 4% in either NH or IA. As it stands, only Paul and Fiorina seem at much risk of being dropped, or maybe Christie if the next couple polls have him really bad in NH, which seems unlikely. These rules seem to have saved Kasich.

....Because he is the establishment's pick, and will be the anti-Trump nominee. Everybody thinks I'm crazy, but all I can do is keep repeating this truth, much like Kasich himself repeats how he balanced the federal and Ohio budget: John Kasich will be the Republican nominee.

As for who will be in the next debate: Trump, Carson, Cruz, Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Paul. Christie and Fiorina will be kept out, and it is unlikely there will be an undercard debate.

[Mr. Morden]

The new Quinnipiac poll is no help to any of the candidates on the bubble.  But the IA/NH polls are actually more important now.  Fiorina just needs to keep polling 4%+ in NH to stay at the big kids' table, while Paul needs to get some stronger polls in either Iowa *or* NH in order to move up to the big kids' table.

[Senator Cris]

With the new Quinnipiac national poll, the averages are as follows:

MAIN DEBATE

Candidate   US    /    NH    /    IA
Trump   26.29    /    23.50    /    25.00
Carson   20.86    /    13.50    /    20.50
Rubio   13.00    /    12.50    /    13.00
Cruz   11.29    /    8.50    /    17.00
Bush   5.43    /    7.50    /    4.50
Kasich   3.00    /    8.75    /    1.50
Fiorina   3.00    /    4.50    /    3.50
Christie   2.57   /    6.25    /    2.50

EARLY DEBATE

Paul   3.00    /    3.50    /    3.50
Huckabee   2.57   /    0.75    /    2.00
Santorum   0.57    /    0.50    /    1.00
Pataki   0.43    /    0.50    /    0.00
Graham   0.29    /    0.75    /    1.00

[Blue3]

Wait, Graham might get to debate Paul???