Why is the educational differential so large in the Pacific NW?

[RFayette]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/OR/senate


The income divide among voters in Oregon in 2014 was nonexistent, whereas the education gap was huge - postgraduate degree holders voted 75% for Merkley, compared to just 43% for the high school cohort.  I don't have the link on me, but I recall Washington having a similar divide.  This 32% gap is just staggering.

Obviously the racial homogeneity and lack of religion in Oregon are factors here, but what else comes into play here?

Compare this to Minnesota, which has similar factors at play - here, the gap was only 11 points between the high school and postgraduate cohorts in terms of Franken vote (53 and 64, respectively).

Obviously, in many Southern states, due to racial polarization and a greater income effect, the postgraduate effect is much smaller if at all existing - no such gap existed in the TX-Senate or GA-Senate races, for instance.  But it still seems odd that this effect is so pronounced in the Pacific Northwest.

[Asian Nazi]

I think that, nationally, race really helps to narrow the education gap, what with Hispanics and Blacks cancelling out white working class votes.  Oregon has a few Hispanics, but they likely hardly vote and the black vote is essentially nonexistent due in large part to statewide racial bans and later racially exclusive covenants during the Great Migration.  Minnesota also has a much more Democrat-friendly rural white working class and in general less of a rural-urban divide than we do.  The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans, while affluent, educated Portland and its suburbs + Eugene are basically the bedrock of the Democrat vote in Oregon (Seattle and its suburbs serve the same purpose up here).

[RFayette]

I think that, nationally, race really helps to narrow the education gap, what with Hispanics and Blacks cancelling out white working class votes.  Oregon has a few Hispanics, but they likely hardly vote and the black vote is essentially nonexistent due in large part to statewide racial bans and later racially exclusive covenants during the Great Migration.  Minnesota also has a much more Democrat-friendly rural white working class and in general less of a rural-urban divide than we do.  The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans, while affluent, educated Portland and its suburbs + Eugene are basically the bedrock of the Democrat vote in Oregon (Seattle and its suburbs serve the same purpose up here).

I guess the more interesting question is, why did white affluent professionals turn so hard against the GOP in OR/WA when the trend was far less strong in other parts of the country, especially the South?  I assume religion and environmental issues are possible explanatory factors?

[Asian Nazi]

I think that, nationally, race really helps to narrow the education gap, what with Hispanics and Blacks cancelling out white working class votes.  Oregon has a few Hispanics, but they likely hardly vote and the black vote is essentially nonexistent due in large part to statewide racial bans and later racially exclusive covenants during the Great Migration.  Minnesota also has a much more Democrat-friendly rural white working class and in general less of a rural-urban divide than we do.  The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans, while affluent, educated Portland and its suburbs + Eugene are basically the bedrock of the Democrat vote in Oregon (Seattle and its suburbs serve the same purpose up here).

I guess the more interesting question is, why did white affluent professionals turn so hard against the GOP in OR/WA when the trend was far less strong in other parts of the country, especially the South?  I assume religion and environmental issues are possible explanatory factors?

Yeah, I think it comes down to social issues.  Affluent Seattle and Portland suburban whites tend to be pretty secular, though there are certainly exceptions.  And while they will sometimes vote for Republicans downballot (especially in WA where the state GOP are competently run) their social liberal tendencies definitely outweigh their anti-tax attitudes.  Notice how the relatively socially liberal Rossi and McKenna managed to significantly outperform the national GOP ticket in 2004, 2008, and 2012, but the GOP hasn't been able to come close in recent Senate races.  Even Rossi couldn't win during the 2010 wave.

I'm curious, though, did Romney experience a similar relative drop-off among white affluent professionals in California?

[Sumner 1868]

The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans

Not all of them. The white logging counties still vote Democratic in general.

[RI]

The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans

Not all of them. The white logging counties still vote Democratic in general.

Yeah, I'd hardly consider Grays Harbor/Pacific/Cowlitz/Wahkiakum in WA or Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook in OR "white professional" by any standard. They have slightly more tourism-based economies but not to any massive extent.

[RFayette]

I think that, nationally, race really helps to narrow the education gap, what with Hispanics and Blacks cancelling out white working class votes.  Oregon has a few Hispanics, but they likely hardly vote and the black vote is essentially nonexistent due in large part to statewide racial bans and later racially exclusive covenants during the Great Migration.  Minnesota also has a much more Democrat-friendly rural white working class and in general less of a rural-urban divide than we do.  The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans, while affluent, educated Portland and its suburbs + Eugene are basically the bedrock of the Democrat vote in Oregon (Seattle and its suburbs serve the same purpose up here).

I guess the more interesting question is, why did white affluent professionals turn so hard against the GOP in OR/WA when the trend was far less strong in other parts of the country, especially the South?  I assume religion and environmental issues are possible explanatory factors?

Yeah, I think it comes down to social issues.  Affluent Seattle and Portland suburban whites tend to be pretty secular, though there are certainly exceptions.  And while they will sometimes vote for Republicans downballot (especially in WA where the state GOP are competently run) their social liberal tendencies definitely outweigh their anti-tax attitudes.  Notice how the relatively socially liberal Rossi and McKenna managed to significantly outperform the national GOP ticket in 2004, 2008, and 2012, but the GOP hasn't been able to come close in recent Senate races.  Even Rossi couldn't win during the 2010 wave.

I'm curious, though, did Romney experience a similar relative drop-off among white affluent professionals in California?

I haven't looked into it too much; I'm not from California, but I am a freshman at a university in California.  My gut tells me that in Northern California (especially Silicon Valley and the coastal cities), there's a far greater educational disparity than in Southern California.  

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/CA/governor/exitpoll

Looking at the link here, the gap between postgraduate degree-holders and high school grads is 14%, which is less than half what it was in Oregon.  

It seems like there's something about the West coast (with the exceptions of Southwest Oregon and San Diego/Orange County) that leads to very liberal professional whites.

[RFayette]

The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans

Not all of them. The white logging counties still vote Democratic in general.

Yeah, I'd hardly consider Grays Harbor/Pacific/Cowlitz/Wahkiakum in WA or Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook in OR "white professional" by any standard. They have slightly more tourism-based economies but not to any massive extent.

I just noticed that trend looking at a county map and it made me wonder:  why is rural Northwest Oregon so much more liberal than rural Southwest Oregon?  They seem like they'd have similar voting behavior.

[Asian Nazi]

The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans

Not all of them. The white logging counties still vote Democratic in general.

Yeah, definitely in WA at least, though the Democrats have started slipping a bit there too.  Back in the 70's those were the most heavily Democratic counties in the state, but now they tend to be pretty swingy.  My old legislative district, the 35th, is now essentially represented by three Republicans.

[RI]

The white working class parts of Oregon (and, to a lesser extent, WA) have basically all flipped to the Republicans

Not all of them. The white logging counties still vote Democratic in general.

Yeah, I'd hardly consider Grays Harbor/Pacific/Cowlitz/Wahkiakum in WA or Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook in OR "white professional" by any standard. They have slightly more tourism-based economies but not to any massive extent.

I just noticed that trend looking at a county map and it made me wonder:  why is rural Northwest Oregon so much more liberal than rural Southwest Oregon?  They seem like they'd have similar voting behavior.

Let's compare the averages of Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook to Coos/Curry/Josephine:

	CCT	CCJ
2012 Obama %	52.0%	40.5%
2014 Kitzhaber %	45.0%	39.5%
Pop Density	47.6	34.5
% White	87.7%	87.7%
Median HH Income	47776	38396
Poverty Rate	13.2%	16.2%
Postgrad Rate	7.0%	6.7%
Ag Land %	7.2%	8.0%
Woodland as % of Ag Land	26.5%	30.8%
% Employed in Ag/Forest/Mining	5.8%	3.7%
% Employed in Accommodations	10.7%	7.6%
% Never Married	23.0%	21.6%

In general, the northern coast is somewhat more dense, more educated, more tourist-y, more logging-based, etc, with the biggest difference being in terms of income. I think some of it also has to do with proximity to Portland versus the lack of proximity to any major population hub for the southern coast.

Interestingly, on the state level, the divide between the two regions is half that of the federal level.