Marco Rubio as the Establishment's Standard Bearer

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Marco Rubio was elected to the Senate as a Tea Party favorite in 2010, defeating establishment candidate Charlie Crist, and has a lifetime average Heritage Action (Jim DeMint's tea party organization) score of 90%. He has distanced himself from his biggest foray into establishment politics, the 2013 immigration reform/amnesty bill, depending on what you want to call it. He would likely be the party's most conservative nominee since World War II. Yet his rhetoric at debates has an establishment feel to it, and he doesn't have the Iowa campaign infrastructure that someone betting on Tea Party support would have (like Ted Cruz). Furthermore, he is establishmentarian when it comes to foreign policy, possibly the biggest hawk in the group.

If Marco Rubio ends up being the choice of the GOP establishment, does that count as the establishment admitting defeat to the party base after their preferred candidate, Jeb Bush, was rejected by voters and picking who they see as the least-bad base-approved candidate? Or is he just another establishment candidate who was always plan B in case Bush fell apart?

[Bull Moose Base]

If you read about Rubio's career in Florida, the guy has always been extremely personally ambitious. His challenge to Crist from the right and then affiliation with the Tea Party was always more a marriage of convenience than anything else. It was the way to statewide office. Then, after the GOP announced they needed to win over Latinos to win back the White House, Rubio led the effort to create a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, an effort he then renounced when it turned out to be hurting his presidential ambition. That's all normal behavior for a politician and ultimately the establishment welcomes it because they know a company man when they see one: the same reason they liked Jeb Bush, who they probably respected and trusted more to run the country. So roughly Rubio was Plan B (or C) and they've been caught off guard by the failure of Bush and Walker as candidates and the success of Trump, Carson and now Cruz so Rubio is more than acceptable to them.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If you read about Rubio's career in Florida, the guy has always been extremely personally ambitious. His challenge to Crist from the right and then affiliation with the Tea Party was always more a marriage of convenience than anything else. It was the way to statewide office. Then, after the GOP announced they needed to win over Latinos to win back the White House, Rubio led the effort to create a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, an effort he then renounced when it turned out to be hurting his presidential ambition. That's all normal behavior for a politician and ultimately the establishment welcomes it because they know a company man when they see one: the same reason they liked Jeb Bush, who they probably respected and trusted more to run the country. So roughly Rubio was Plan B (or C) and they've been caught off guard by the failure of Bush and Walker as candidates and the success of Trump, Carson and now Cruz so Rubio is more than acceptable to them.

So, then, is Rubio an establishment candidate or a compromise to try to bring back Trump/Carson voters since the establishment believes those voters won't support more moderate candidates like Bush?

And I'm not saying I disagree with you, but if he only ran to the right to beat Crist, why has his voting record continued to be so conservative throughout his term in the Senate?

[Bull Moose Base]

If you read about Rubio's career in Florida, the guy has always been extremely personally ambitious. His challenge to Crist from the right and then affiliation with the Tea Party was always more a marriage of convenience than anything else. It was the way to statewide office. Then, after the GOP announced they needed to win over Latinos to win back the White House, Rubio led the effort to create a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, an effort he then renounced when it turned out to be hurting his presidential ambition. That's all normal behavior for a politician and ultimately the establishment welcomes it because they know a company man when they see one: the same reason they liked Jeb Bush, who they probably respected and trusted more to run the country. So roughly Rubio was Plan B (or C) and they've been caught off guard by the failure of Bush and Walker as candidates and the success of Trump, Carson and now Cruz so Rubio is more than acceptable to them.

So, then, is Rubio an establishment candidate or a compromise to try to bring back Trump/Carson voters since the establishment believes those voters won't support more moderate candidates like Bush?

And I'm not saying I disagree with you, but if he only ran to the right to beat Crist, why has his voting record continued to be so conservative throughout his term in the Senate?

On the first question, I think he's some combo of that: an establishment candidate and a compromise to win over Trump/Carson voters- a compromise less because of his conservative record than because of their higher comfort level with Jeb Bush and the Bush family generally.

As for the explanation for Rubio's record, I think he has excellent political instincts and understood he'd need to remain in the good graces of the Tea Party and very conservative voters in order to be a viable presidential candidate in a primary. By the time, he took office, Romney was already a de facto presidential candidate (a few months from making it official) and I assume Rubio wanted to spare himself the resistance from the base Romney was getting. Why, if he needed to appease the base, would he lead on immigration reform? In 2013, Christie still looked like a formidable general election candidate the establishment would rally behind and I think that partly influenced Rubio to take a calculated bet that he could get the bill passed, attract much higher Latino support and protect the case for himself as the most electable Republican. Like any good but conventional presidential candidate, Rubio is trying to keep the base and establishment happy at the same time while leaving himself room to pivot the center if he makes it to the general election.

[Blair]

Rubio is much more conservative than he admits to, the fact that a former 'crown prince' of the Tea Party is considered establishment shows much has changed-heck I'm only 19 but I remember when the likes of Jeb where called part of the conservative wing

[Talleyrand]

The "Tea Party" was also much more mainstream in 2010, and Rubio was never classified in with the kooky Angle/O'Donnell/LePage wing or whatever.

He has always been palatable, and even preferred, by the establishment. From 2010-2013, he was constantly described as the future first Latino President. Only when the media went gaga over Christie and the immigration bill fell apart did he lose a lot of that attention.

Now he has it back and he will win the primary, and then the election, easily.

[Zioneer]

The "Tea Party" was also much more mainstream in 2010, and Rubio was never classified in with the kooky Angle/O'Donnell/LePage wing or whatever.

He has always been palatable, and even preferred, by the establishment. From 2010-2013, he was constantly described as the future first Latino President. Only when the media went gaga over Christie and the immigration bill fell apart did he lose a lot of that attention.

Now he has it back and he will the primary, and then the election, easily.

I probably won't remember, but someone will quote you on that, just like your prediction for Vitter.

[ScottieF]

Yes, and I'm glad someone is pointing this out. Rubio is a reactionary extremist and the fact that he is now considered "establishment" probably speaks more to how far right the GOP has moved than anything else.

[MK]

The "Tea Party" was also much more mainstream in 2010, and Rubio was never classified in with the kooky Angle/O'Donnell/LePage wing or whatever.

He has always been palatable, and even preferred, by the establishment. From 2010-2013, he was constantly described as the future first Latino President. Only when the media went gaga over Christie and the immigration bill fell apart did he lose a lot of that attention.

Now he has it back and he will win the primary, and then the election, easily.

Rubio wont beat Hillbeast . 

[hopper]

I just wanted to say about Rubio: Remember what Bill Buckley said elect "The Most Electable Conservative" and Rubio is the most electable conservative that can beat Hillary Clinton. Trump and Cruz aren't electable in a General Election vs Hillary.

[SillyAmerican]

Rubio is a member of the establishment. He caters to their interests all the time. He is not a member of the conservative wing.

Yeah. Which is why Rubio would do reasonably well in the GE. While many of his views are fairly conservative, he doesn't come across as shrill and uncompromising, like Cruz does. That said, I'd much prefer to see a governor become president, given that their governing experience is much better suited to the position.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Rubio was essentially THE conservative/center-right candidate here in 2010, Charlie Crist was beginning his transition to the left at that time (hence why a vast majority of his votes came from Democrats and liberals), Rubio would never be from that part of the old Tea Party, so by all means he really is "establishment" now, just on the more conservative end of it.