Will Edwards be Popular and Reelected?

[Free Bird]

He's a Democrat in Louisiana, albeit a conservative one. It's up in the air. He really struck gold with facing Vitter, so I don't know if he can replicate that success in 2019.

[Figueira]

My gut says Yes/Yes, but who knows?

[ElectionsGuy]

I suspect Edwards will go the route of being the opposite Hogan/Baker, which will probably make him popular. As for him being re-elected, that's a complete unknown. Governors races are WAY harder to predict than national races, so I have no idea. It depends on the Republican credibility and whether Edwards and the legislature can actually work together (if he can't, he'll end up being compared to Rauner right now).

[Xing]

It's impossible to say this early. He hasn't even started yet. My gut is that he becomes fairly popular, but who knows what the political climate will be like in 2019, or who his opponent will be?

[Crumpets]

Blue dog Democratic Governors in Red states seem to know how to stay below the radar and keep the populace reasonably happy with their performance, but their performance is so-so when it comes to getting reelected. I say Yes/No.

[Maxwell]

No idea - Kathleen Blanco was a flop in terms of popularity, but I'm not sure that means anything.

[Hydera]

Yes/No


so tossup.


Hey who knows, maybe the country becomes more liberal in the next four years that edward's still has a floor.

But i wouldn't bet on either of them.

Winning re-election for governor's has three factors. If the economy is strong enough in the next four years, If you are affected by an anti-incumbency effect(was great for GOP in 2014 and for dems in 2006). Or if the voters percieve you are still closer to them on the issues.


Given that Louisiana's economy in the aftermath of deindustrialization and outsourcing since the 00's. has became too dependent on Oil/Gas when the price of them have crashed. Its tough to say if the economy will be great at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes/Yea, as long as he governs as a centrist, La does reelect govs, he has a chance.

[smoltchanov]

Popular - almost sure. Reelected - doubt. "Normal" conservative Republican candidate will, probably, be slightly fawored initially. Not by much, but - still... In addition - since 1979 candidate elected every 12 years (1979, 1991, 2003) serves only 1 term, while other - usually 2 (an exception is Edwards -1983, but there were reasons for that)))

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yes to both.  Considering that he's a bit more moderate/conservative than the average Democrat (pro-life, pro-gun rights, etc.), he will probably be much better liked in Louisiana than if he were a committed liberal (like President Obama).  And if he stays popular, then he will most likely be favored for reelection.

I have my own theory as to how he won this time.  A lot of Republicans were disgusted and disappointed with Vitter's scandals, and Edwards, as the moderate that he is, was the perfect Democrat to take advantage of those voters--he was an acceptable alternative for them.  And Dardenne's endorsement certainly helped make a crossover vote look safe for those voters, too.  I don't have any solid evidence of that, but if there are some exit polls that I can check for reference, I'd love to see how many Republicans split ticket and voted Edwards.  (I certainly would have.)

[smoltchanov]

Yes to both.  Considering that he's a bit more moderate/conservative than the average Democrat (pro-life, pro-gun rights, etc.), he will probably be much better liked in Louisiana than if he were a committed liberal (like President Obama).  And if he stays popular, then he will most likely be favored for reelection.

Committed liberal like Obama would, probably, lose even to Vitter.. The closest candidate to committed liberal this year was Holden. 45% against Nungesser - who knows whether he would get 50 against him?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How is anyone supposed to know?

[Mr. Smith]

Popular, yes...re-elected...who knows.

[Asian Nazi]

What are the odds of another Katrina hitting in the next four years?

[The Other Castro]

What are the odds of another Katrina hitting in the next four years?

If there was a disaster like that, how he handles it could play very well for him like Christie/Obama and Sandy.

[Bigby]

Depends on if he acts like he did during the campaign or not.

[Miles]

What are the odds of another Katrina hitting in the next four years?

If there was a disaster like that, how he handles it could play very well for him like Christie/Obama and Sandy.

The approvals of Blanco and Barbour after Katrina were like day and night.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So Edwards won? Damn it, missed all the fun.

What was the margin like?

[Njall]

So Edwards won? Damn it, missed all the fun.

What was the margin like?

56.1-43.9, I believe

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So Edwards won? Damn it, missed all the fun.

What was the margin like?

56.1-43.9, I believe

Neat!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

What are the odds of another Katrina hitting in the next four years?

If there was a disaster like that, how he handles it could play very well for him like Christie/Obama and Sandy.

Or it could go the way it did for his predecessor, Governor Blanco.

[Adam Griffin]

Relevant:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/20/AR2007012000322_pf.html

[Fuzzy Bear]

The key for Edwards is to maintain popuGOPlarity amongst Louisiana's Cajun Catholics, while not alienating blacks.  The Cajun shift to the GOP is what has made Louisiana so Republican at all levels. 

Edwards is already demanding a Democratic Speaker of the House, where there is a GOP majority.  How this will play out depends on whether or not Edwards gains popular support, or is written off as a partisan.  My own view is that the GOP will do nothing to help, as GOP pols in Southern states see no electoral benefit to bi-partisanship, so I doubt Edwards will see much goodwill thrown his way.

[RFayette]

The key for Edwards is to maintain popuGOPlarity amongst Louisiana's Cajun Catholics, while not alienating blacks.  The Cajun shift to the GOP is what has made Louisiana so Republican at all levels. 

Edwards is already demanding a Democratic Speaker of the House, where there is a GOP majority.  How this will play out depends on whether or not Edwards gains popular support, or is written off as a partisan.  My own view is that the GOP will do nothing to help, as GOP pols in Southern states see no electoral benefit to bi-partisanship, so I doubt Edwards will see much goodwill thrown his way.

There is actually a minority of vocally anti-Jindal R's in the state legislature for Edwards to work with.  An anti-Jindal moderate R will be majority leader in the state senate for an effective coalition government, and D's picked up a seat to end the R supermajority there.  Jindal ran the state effectively as a libertarian and evidently, a lot of R's representing urban and rural districts that use a lot of social services were very uncomfortable with that.  There just aren't enough places like Plano or The Woodlands in Louisiana to govern it like Texas and stay popular.  In many ways, this election was a testing ground for the 2020 D strategy against an R president who has full control and passed aggressive budget cuts.

True, though the dip in oil prices also hurt revenue considerably, which was a big problem for Jindal.  Had oil prices stayed high, revenue would have been much healthier and Vitter would probably have won the governor's race.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Very possibly. The state GOP looks weak to me.