Hong Kong Local elections 2015
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Author Topic: Hong Kong Local elections 2015  (Read 3193 times)
jaichind
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« on: November 22, 2015, 09:05:03 AM »

Vote and counting is today.  Pro-Beijing camp tends to dominate elections at this level.  In 2011 it was Pro-Beijing 55.4% of the vote with 301 seats and Pro-Democracy camp winning 34.4% of the vote with 103 seats.   The Pro-Beijing camp won a majority in all 18 Councils. This is the first vote in HK since the protests last year.  It would be interesting to see what impact the protests last year had on the voting patterns.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2015, 09:24:40 AM »

Turnout at 43.7% as of 9:30PM, higher than any other local election up to this point by this time.  Highest before was 2003 when it was 40.7% by 9:30PM.  In theory this should be good news for the Pro-Democarcy camp but this could also be an anti-protest backlash.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2015, 09:45:34 AM »

Turnout rate relative to 2011.

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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2015, 10:04:26 AM »

Voting ended.  It will take hours for initial results to come in.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2015, 10:46:08 AM »

Note that out of the 431 seats available, the Pro-Beijing camp already won 65 seats and Pro-Democracy won 1 seat because there are due to no opposition.  The Pro-Beijing camp is facing a large number of rebel candidates where a bunch are pro-Beijing camp independents are running against the official Pro-Beijing camp party candidate.  This took place in 2011 as well but the scale of the number of rebels is much larger this year.
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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2015, 01:41:14 PM »

Some small amounts of results coming in.  It seems that Pro-Beijing camp clearly has the upper hand but most likely lost some amount of votes and seats.  It will be seen how much.  Most likely not enough to really harm their domination of the various local councils. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2015, 02:03:59 PM »

As more results comes in it seems better and better for the Pro-Beijing camp.  More results needed for this to be a trend.
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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2015, 02:33:59 PM »

It seems the total balance of power in terms of seats is roughly the same between the Pro-Beijing and Pro-Democracy camps there does seems to be some churn as many incumbents on both sides seems to be defeated.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2015, 02:42:55 PM »

Out of the 365 contest seats, so far it seems 58 Pro-Beijing camp elected and 23 Pro-Democracy camp elected.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2015, 02:45:02 PM »

Is that a lot for the pro democracy???
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2015, 02:48:16 PM »


Hard to say, a lot of Pro-Democracy camp incumbents getting defeated but so are a bunch of Pro-Beijing camp incumbents.  Only thing I can say is that most likely at the end it will be a wash.
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jaichind
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2015, 02:57:47 PM »

Pro-Democracy camp was hoping to recapture control of Sai Kung (葵青) District Council  which they lost in 2007.  This now seems very unlikely.   Another target is Sham Shui Po (深水埗) District Council where the Pro-Democracy camp also lost control in 2007.  This one the hope is still alive.  If the Pro-Democracy camp fail to re-capture Sham Shui Po then it will be a complete sweep of all Councils by the Pro-Beijing camp again.
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jaichind
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2015, 03:07:09 PM »

Turnout is around 47%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2015, 04:06:27 PM »

Out of the 365 contest seats, so far it seems 114 Pro-Beijing camp elected and 64 Pro-Democracy camp elected.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2015, 05:49:03 PM »

One thing is clear as results are coming in, the radical parties within the Pro-Democracy camp are gaining strength relative to the moderate parties.  This will pressure the moderate parties from not making deals with the pro-Beijing establishment.  One can view these radical parties as the "Tea Party" of the Pro-Democracy camp.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2015, 06:43:42 PM »

Out of the 365 contest seats, 229 Pro-Beijing camp elected and 136 Pro-Democracy camp elected.  I most likely overestimated the numbers for both camps as I might have miscounted some pure independents into each camp.  One way or another the Pro-Democracy camp did make some advances but given the surge in turnout it was most likely disappointing to the Pro-Democracy camp.
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jaichind
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2015, 06:53:43 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2015, 08:24:21 PM by jaichind »

Pro-Democracy camp came close to taking the Sai Kung (西貢) District Council but looks like will fall short 13-14.  
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2015, 08:23:54 PM »

Pro-Democracy camp came close to taking the Sham Shui Po (深水埗) District Council but looks like will fall short 11-12
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2015, 05:28:46 AM »

Initial count by news outlets are that Pro-Beijing camp won 298  seats and Pro-Democracy camp won 125 seats out of 431.  In 2011 it was Pro-Beijing camp 299 and Pro-Democracy 103.  So Pro-Democracy camp did gain some minor gains relative to the Pro-Beijing camp.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2015, 11:41:46 AM »

So it seems to be Pro-Beijing camp  297 seats and 54.4% of the vote and Pro-Democracy camp 123 seats with 38.9% of the vote.  In 2011 it was Pro-Beijing camp 301 seats with 55.4% of the vote and Pro-Democracy camp with 103 seats with 39.4% of the vote.    Up until 2007 it was mostly parity between the two camps but in 2007 the Pro-Beijing camp took a large lead in District Council elections both in terms of seats and votes.  It mostly has to do with the Pro-Beijing camp being about to absorb various local forces as well as internal splinters in Pro-Democracy camp lead to a loss support at the District Council level.  While the Pro-Beijing camp had a small swing against it they were able to retain majorities in all 18 District Councils despite a surge in turnout which in theory should have helped the Pro-Democracy camp a lot more.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2017, 08:40:12 AM »

I suggest that threads about Hong Kong elections could be merged into a megathread like the Austrian model.
I would start the megathread in due course.
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