2016 & Future Elections TL

[Wells]

This is just a timeline I'm making for fun. I'll try to make this as realistic as possible.
Early December
Chris Christie (2%)  is struggling with rumors that he will drop out of the race for president. He repeatedly denies these claims, but the rumors get stronger. Lindsey Graham (1%) actually drops out of the race on December 3. Polling still shows Trump (31%) in the lead by increasingly large margins, even after he calls Adele fat on Twitter. On the Democratic side, Bernie's momentum appears to have stalled at about 35 percent. Hillary is at 54 percent, O'Malley at 6.
Mid December
The rumors of Christie's (1%) possibly ending campaign won't cease, and it's hurting his poll numbers. Rick Santorum (0%) drops out of the race for president just two days before the debate. After the debate, Bush (4%) and Fiorina (5%) emerge as the clear winners, and analysts predict that Trump's (33%) lead will finally end. Bernie Sanders (34%) edges out Clinton (55%) in the Democratic debate.
Late December
Trump (37%) maintains the lead in Republican polling. Bush (7%) bumps up from 6th place to 5th place, while Fiorina (8%) moves from 5th to 4th. This comes at the cost of Carson (8%) and Cruz (6%). Bernie Sanders (39%) rediscovers his momentem, and Clinton (49%) begins to decline. Christie (0%) drops out of the race after an abysmal debate performance.

[/]

Nice!

[Wells]

Nice!

Thanks. Anyway,
Early January
Primary polling shows Sanders (41%) leading in more individual states than he ever did before. However, Clinton (48%) holds a majority in a majority of states. O'Malley (4%) campaigns heavily in Iowa. Trump (40%) maintains his increasingly large lead. Bush's (6%) post-debate boost wears off, but Fiorina's (9%) continues. Cruz (9%) rebounds, while Carson (5%) fades. Rubio (15%) leads in fundraising for the last quarter. One of Gilmore's (0%) speeches is actually really good, but nobody cares.
Mid January
Sanders (40%) stalls once again, but he outshines Clinton (48%) in the debate once again. O'Malley (9%) flops. Trump (36%) finally drops by a little, due to the rise of Rubio (18%) and Cruz (12%). Carson (3%) continues to crash. Gilmore (0%) actually makes it into a debate, but nobody cares.
Late January
Sanders (44%) is now tied with Clinton (44%). O'Malley (2%) desperately tries to muster support. Rubio (20%) and Fiorina (10%) win the Republican debate. Cruz (13%) also does well. Carson (3%) does himself no favors. Analysts predict that Trump's (37%) lead will finally end. Gilmore (0%) makes some good points in the debate, but nobody cares.

The Iowa caucus results are coming next ... stay tuned!

[YPestis25]

Looks good! Welcome to the forum.

[Wells]

It's time for the Iowa caucuses. Just yesterday former New York governor George Pataki dropped out of the race for president, but he will still be appearing on the ballot in Iowa. With 10% of precincts reporting the results for the Republican Caucus as of 10:00 pm are . . .
1. Trump 30%
2. Cruz 18%
3. Carson 11%
4. Rubio 11%
5. Huckabee 8%
6. Fiorina 7%
7. Bush 5%
8. Paul 3%
9. Kasich 3%
10. Pataki 1%
11. Gilmore 0%
12. Others/Write-Ins 2%

It must be disappointing to the Gilmore campaign that someone who has dropped out is leading them in Iowa.
On the Democratic ticket:
1. Clinton 47%
2. Sanders 45%
3. O'Malley 5%
4. Others/Write-Ins 3%%

I'll be back later with the final results of the Iowa caucuses.

[Wells]

Hi, I'm back with the final Iowa Caucus results.
CNN Article February 2, 2016

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Coming up next will be the overview of Early February.
(Obviously the article is fake. I made it up.)

[Wells]

Early February
Martin O'Malley (11%) attempts to increase support by launching a series of advertisements in early voting states. Sanders (45%) gains momentum after a victory in Iowa, but Clinton (40%) is still close behind. Jeb Bush (3%) tries reinvigorating support through media appearances. Rand Paul (4%) goes under fire for a below the belt attack on on Trump (30%). Carson (7%) receives a slight boost in the polls. Jim Gilmore (0%) drops out of the race after losing in Iowa.

Republican Debate Performances - ABC Feb 6
Winners:
Ted Cruz - Cruz seemed presidential on the debate stage, firm on the issues, and enunciated his positions well. He came off as oddly rehearsed and emotionless, though.
Rand Paul - Paul attempted to paint himself as a candidate who was a better conservative than anyone else on the stage, and he largely succeeded.
Carly Fiorina - She proved once again that she was a fine debater, but she's getting old.
John Kasich - There may still be life in his campaign. He came across as a moderate and true conservative at the same time, and he did it really well. The biggest winner of the debate.
Marco Rubio - The only candidate to be heckled by someone who wasn't Donald Trump, and he handled it pretty well. He also proved once again to be the establishment candidate - for better or for worse.
Losers:
Jeb Bush - He came across as unpresidential, and dodged too many questions. Id there was any doubt that his campaign is over, there's none now.
Donald Trump - Attacked the other candidates randomly, and a little too harshly. Analysts predict that this will be the end of Trump's lead.
Mike Huckabee - Was nearly invisible. I've already forgotten he was there.
Ben Carson - Fumbled and seemed even more tired than usual. He mispronounced, Cruz's name, and a few other words, too. He also dodged more questions Bush, if that was possible.

[Wells]

Hi, I'm just posting the results of the New Hampshire Primaries.
News Article From Somewhere February 10, 2016

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Up next is the debate performances, then the summary for Mid February. Then it will be time for the next primaries.
(Once again, it's a fake article.)

[Wells]

PBS Debate Performances Feb 11 (Dem)
Clinton - Clinton did well in this debate, managing to prove herself as experienced in foreign policy and determined to fight for the middle class. However, she did stumble on the issue of race, allowing Sanders to court the minority vote, which he has struggled with for most of his candidacy.
Sanders - Sanders, as previously mentioned, courted minorities. He also shined on income inequality. However,though he articulated his foreign policy views well, Clinton stole the spotlight from him on those issues.
O'Malley - Once again O'Malley failed to distinguish himself from the other candidates, and possibly  stunted his momentum. He couldn't find good footing on foreign policy, and his attacks on Clinton and Sanders backfired.
Verdict: Sanders won minorities, Clinton won everything else.  
CBS Debate Performances Feb 13 (GOP)
Winners:
Ben Carson - Appeared calm, cool, and collected. He seemed to be the most knowledgeable, but also the most Islamophobic.
Ted Cruz - Cruz still seemed emotionless, but made some very good points when he clashed with Trump. He almost proved to GOP's alternate candidate if Trump implodes, but Rubio is running, too.
Rand Paul - Fought his way out of a tight corner pretty well when accused of not being a social conservative by Trump. Pointed out that Trump agrees with him on some of those issues, and Trump collapsed.
Marco Rubio - Rubio appeared more moderate this time, while trying to be a true conservative. He pulled it off, but not as well as Kasich did last time. Though he certainly did it better than Kasich did this time.
Losers:
Carly Fiorina - She seemed frazzled and unprepared, and just couldn't seem to put her thoughts into words, making awkward statements about the state of the Middle East.
John Kasich - Couldn't pull off what he pulled off last debate, mainly because what he did pull off was almost an exact copy of Perry's "oops" moment in 2012.
Donald Trump - Once again, Trump randomly attacked people and seemed too mean about it. Analysts predict that this will be the end of Trump's lead.
(Mike Huckabee dropped out before the debate, endorsing Ted Cruz)
Ill post the results of the SC and NV primaries next.

[Wells]

Mid February
Bush (2%) and Huckabee (4%) drop out of the race. Fiorina (6%) drops in the polls, so she suspends her campaign, also. Trump (32%) remains in the lead, with Rubio (20%) and Cruz(17%) right behind. Carson (9%) rallies some support in South Carolina. Kasich (5%) can't keep support. O'Malley (7%) drops like a stone in the polls after the debate. Sanders (46%) maintains a lead over Clinton (43%).

[Wells]

The results of the February 20 South Carolina republican and the Nevada democratic primaries will now be posted. The Washington Republican caucuses will also happen. Trump won. (Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Kasich/Carson/Paul, 35-21-17-11-9-6)
South Carolina (R)
1. Trump 29%
2. Rubio 26%
3. Cruz 19%
4. Carson 11%
5. Paul 9%
6. Kasich 5%
Nevada (D)
1. Sanders 50%
2. Clinton 45%
3. O'Malley 4%
Done. I'll be back with the SC Democratic primaries.

[Wells]

I'm back. So, the results of the South Carolina Democratic primary are in.
1. Clinton 49%
2. Sanders 48%
3. O'Malley 2%

[Wells]

And now I'm going to look back on some of my old predictions about the 2016 race.
Christie is not struggling with rumors that he will drop out. I think I can make this come true pretty easily: **I think I heard from CNN that Christie is dropping out on Saturday.**
Lindsey Graham has not dropped out yet, but Rick Santorum can still do it on time.
Trump is leading. However, he did not call Adele fat on Twitter. It seemed realistic when I wrote it. It still does.
The polling numbers are pretty accurate, though I did not anticipate the Cruz rise.

[Wells]

Another thing I didn't foresee:
The bit about Sanders staff taking Clinton voter data. And the massive overreaction by the Democratic National Committee. And now Sanders is suing the DNC. That escalated quickly.

[Wells]

And it's Super Tuesday. John Kasich and Martin O'Malley have dropped out of the race. Rubio won the Republican Nevada caucus on February 23rd. (Rubio/Trump/Cruz/Carson/Paul/Kasich, 30-28-22-11-5-3)
Democratic Primaries
Alabama - won by Clinton (53-46)
Arkansas - won by Sanders (55-44)
Georgia - won by Clinton (59-40)
Massachusetts - won by Sanders (52-47)
Oklahoma - won by Sanders (57-42)
Tennessee - won by Sanders (58-41)
Texas - won by Clinton (50-49)
Vermont - won by Sanders (68-31)
Virginia - won by Sanders (54-45)
Republican Primaries
Alabama - won by Rubio (Rubio/Trump/Carson/Cruz/Paul, 35-31-15-14-5)
Arkansas - won by Trump (Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Carson/Paul, 31-24-20-13-11
Georgia - won by Rubio (Rubio/Trump/Carson/Cruz/Paul, 37-29-17-11-5)
Massachusetts - won by Trump (Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Paul/Carson, 34-25-22-11-7)
Oklahoma - won by Trump (Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Carson/Paul, 31-28-26-10-4)
Texas - won by Cruz (Cruz/Trump/Rubio/Carson/Paul, 32-25-24-9-9)
Vermont - won by Trump (Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Rubio/Carson, 33-24-20-15-7)
Virginia - won by Rubio (Rubio/Trump/Cruz/Carson/Paul, 30-29-20-12-9)
Democratic Caucuses
Colorado - won by Sanders (51-49)
Minnesota - won by Sanders (60-40)
Republican Caucuses
Alaska - won by Trump (Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Paul/Carson, 37-25-18-15-4)
Colorado - won by Rubio (Rubio/Trump/Cruz/Carson/Paul, 27-25-22-16-9)
Minnesota - won by Trump (Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Paul/Carson, 30-23-20-15-11)
North Dakota - won by Trump (Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Paul/Carson, 28-23-19-15-14)
Wyoming - won by Trump (Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Paul/Carson, 25-24-20-17-13)

[Wells]

Ben Carson dropped out of the race after a disappointing Super Tuesday performance. Many of his supporters are expected to move to Trump, making his nomination almost inevitable. Jim Webb announced an Independent run, and it has received much more support than expected. Pundits suspect it is due to the rise of democratic socialist Bernie Sanders, whose views are making some moderate Democrats uncomfortable.
March 5 will have primaries in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska.

[Wells]

After Sanders' successful Super Tuesday performance, his poll numbers shoot skyward, while Clinton's begin to decline. Trump now has more than 40% support in the Republican primaries, while the others are desperate for support. The results of the March 5 primaries are below.
Democrats
Kansas - Sanders (67-33)
Louisiana - Sanders (74-25)
Nebraska - Clinton (51-49)
We now turn to the Republican primaries, in which now some political analysts are saying Trump's lead might persist.
Republicans
Kansas - Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Paul, 40-29-25-5
Kentucky - Trump/Paul/Rubio/Cruz, 30-26-23-20
Louisiana - Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Paul, 42-27-23-7
Maine - Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Paul, 49-21-18-11

[Wells]

The results of the Maine primary is below.
1. Sanders 77%
2. Clinton 22%
3. Others/Write-Ins 1%

[Wells]

Bernie Sanders is urging his supporters to vote so his lead can continue:
"I think that the most important thing in this stage of the primary is that my supporters go out and vote."
Hillary Clinton is focusing most of her efforts on Michigan, as it has a large delegate count (148 delegates).
"I still think I can get enough support, make it to the convention, and win the nomination."
Republicans are attempting to attack Trump's electability.
Rand Paul: "If Trump wins the nomination, there is going to be another Democrat, probably a socialist, in the White House for another four years. We can't have that, so we can't have Trump."
Ted Cruz: "I like Trump, and most of the people I know like Trump and his ideas and what he stands for, but he just can't win in the general election. That's the harsh truth."
Marco Rubio: "Poll after poll shows Trump losing by a landslide to a socialist. The lack of support for Trump among the general population should be unnerving to Trump supporters."
Donald Trump: "If you look at the real polls, not the ones that get attention from the liberal media, the real polls, you'll find me winning in a landslide. I beat Hillary, I beat socialist Sanders, I am a winner. And I win by huge amounts. Everybody loves me. The liberal media won't tell you this but everybody loves me."
Jim Webb's campaign is getting a lot of attention from moderates of both parties.  
"You see, I'm getting support because people don't want a socialist or a clown in the White House. It's as simple as that."
Webb's Ballot Access: New Jersey, Tennessee, Washington (3 out of 50)
Hillary Clinton: "If Sanders is the nominee, I will support him. I will not support any independent campaign that will hinder the chances of a Democrat getting into the White House."

[Wells]

The results of the March 8 primaries are below.

Democratic
Michigan - Sanders (59-40)
Mississippi - Sanders (70-29)
Republican
Hawaii - Rubio/Trump/Cruz/Paul (37-27-26-9)
Michigan - Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Paul (34-30-22-13)
Mississippi - Rubio/Trump/Cruz/Paul (36-29-27-7)

Headlines call this a "Rubio Sweep", which according to those same headlines causes Trump to "explode with rage" and say that Rubio is "more of this establishment bulls---." (On Twitter, of course.) However, there are many reasons why Rubio won. Doubts had been raised over Trump's electability (84% viewed him as electable in February, only 76% in March), and it had hurt his numbers. Rubio had also spent millions in these three states, not even including PACs.

Marco Rubio: "Tonight shows that I can win this election. People are finally starting to realize that Trump can't win, but I can. We will win this nomination, and we will tell the Democrats that this is not a socialist country. We will make our voices heard at the polls."
Bernie Sanders: "The American people need to learn that democratic socialism isn't nearly as frightening as our Republican friends make it out to be."

Jim Webb's ballot access: Arkansas, Mississippi, New Jersey, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin (65 electoral votes)

[Wells]

In Washington, DC today Republicans chose a candidate.
1. Rubio 40%
2. Trump 29%
3. Cruz 18%
4. Paul 12%

Quick campaign facts:
This is more troubling news for Trump, who hasn't been able to keep support with all three other candidates constantly attacking him. However, he still has a small (4-5%) lead in most national polls.
Cruz is trying to appeal to voters as the electable version of Trump, but it's not working. So, he has started an ad campaign that airs in several primary states for one week.
In January, 44% of voters aid they would "definitely not" vote for an establishment candidate. Now, in March that number is down to 31%.
Rubio has the highest favorability ratings of any Republican among the general population (58%), and his campaign won't let anybody forget it.

Selected Quotes from the Campaign Trail:
Donald Trump: "The DC primary isn't that important. It isn't telling of who will win the nomination. You know who will win the nomination? I will. And I'll win against socialist Sanders, too."
Marco Rubio: "Listen, you need somebody who is electable. Trump isn't electable. I don't mean to brag, but I have a higher favorability rating among the general population than any of my competitors. That is what a winner looks like."
Donald Trump: "Marco Rubio is a loser. He needs to drop out right away. The amount of support I have, on the other hand, is incredible. It's huge."
Rand Paul: "Americans need a true patriot in the White House, and I am that patriot. I never missed a vote in the Senate, and I will fight for true conservative values in the White House with the same fervor."
Ted Cruz: "Trump won't win. We need someone who will win. And that would be me. Unlike Trump, I can defeat a socialist, and unlike Rubio I am a true conservative who will fight for America and the values of the founding fathers. If you want second amendment rights, a defunded Planned Parenthood, a balanced budget, and low taxes; then vote for Ted Cruz. (I am Ted Cruz and I approve this message.)"

The Independent:
Discussion about what candidates' VP picks will be begins. Webb tries to build up hype about his as media attention to his campaign fades.
Jim Webb's ballot access: Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin (10 out of 50)

[Wells]

Now the results of the March 15 primaries:
Democrats
Florida - Sanders (61-38)
Illinois - Sanders (70-29)
Missouri - Sanders (66-33)
North Carolina - Sanders (62-37)
Ohio - Sanders (68-31)

Republicans
Florida - Rubio/Trump/Cruz (50-31-18)
Illinois - Trump/Rubio/Cruz (39-38-22)
Missouri - Rubio/Trump/Cruz (41-35-23)
North Carolina - Trump/Rubio/Cruz (41-37-21)
Ohio - Trump/Rubio/Cruz (43-36-20)

Quick campaign facts:
Rand Paul dropped out of the race, to the dismay of his voters. According to polls, some will move to Cruz or Trump, while others will not vote at all.
Hillary Clinton is using her campaign money to better organize her grassroots efforts and begin more TV advertisements.
Donald Trump is attacking Marco Rubio, calling him a "liberal" who missed too many Senate votes and supports letting Mexicans stay in the country.

Selected Quotes from the Campaign Trail:
Rand Paul: "I must drop out of the race for president today. I just do not have enough support to win the nomination for the Republican party."
Donald Trump: "They're attacking me left and right, they're saying I won't win. Rand Paul said that. Look what just happened to him. He dropped out. He lost. I'll win. . . . You know that loyalty pledge they made me sign? Maybe Cruz and the liberal Rubio should sign it, to make sure they'll support me. The Democrats will need a pledge, too. Clinton doesn't like losing to a socialist."
Bernie Sanders: " Trump seems to think that 'socialist' is a swear word. That's not what democratic socialism is."
Hillary Clinton: "I've already said I'd support Sanders if he was the nominee. Trump seems to ignore facts just so he can make it into the headlines."

The Independent:
Jim Webb: "People have had enough of this polarized political climate. We need to bring back true moderates and rebuild America."
Webb was endorsed by Mark Warner on the 14th.
His ballot access: Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin (116 electoral votes)

[Wells]

Results of the March 22 primaries:
Democrats
Arizona - Sanders (69-30)
Idaho - Sanders (74-26)
Utah - Sanders (77-23)
Republicans
Arizona - Rubio/Trump/Cruz (43-34-22)
Utah - Rubio/Trump/Cruz (42-31-27)

Quick campaign facts:
Donald Trump is campaigning against Marco Rubio by pointing out polls that show him losing to Bernie Sanders.
Marco Rubio enjoys funding from the Koch Brothers, and a lead in polls.
Ted Cruz gets no media attention, except about how his campaign is failing.
Bernie Sanders begins campaigning for the general election, making stops in states such as Virginia and Ohio.
Hillary Clinton focuses on Washington and Wisconsin as her last hopes in the primaries, splitting one million dollars in campaign funds between the two.

Selected Quotes from the Campaign Trail:
Donald Trump: "You look at Marco Rubio, and the polls, and he loses to Bernie Sanders, a communist, socialist, whatever, and then you look at me, and you see that I win. I will defeat socialism."
Marco Rubio: "Trump divides us. We need a true leader that unites Americans. We must be united against ISIS, against Russia, and against all foreign nations that threaten freedom."

The Independent:
Jim Webb is running a campaign based on issues. He rarely attacks a candidate.  But sometimes he does.
Jim Webb: "Trump is a joke that went too far. His presidency would be a disaster for America and our international reputation."
His ballot access: Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin (13 out of 50)