When will Trump lose the lead permanently
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  When will Trump lose the lead permanently
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Poll
Question: When will Donald Trump lose his lead in the Primary polls never to regain it?
#1
By the start of December
 
#2
December
 
#3
January
 
#4
Following the Iowa result
 
#5
Following the New Hampshire result
 
#6
Following Super Tuesday
 
#7
He will be the nominee
 
#8
He'll drop out retaining the lead
 
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Total Voters: 97

Author Topic: When will Trump lose the lead permanently  (Read 2072 times)
Lord of the Dome
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« on: November 23, 2015, 01:46:58 AM »

I'll admit that it wasn't really until the start of October that I paid even the slightest attention to Trumps ever enduring lead but I'm now very curious as to the eventual fate of his campaign. He's hardly invincible and yet nothing seems to have done him in yet so I'm curious as to when he's going to go down and what is going to cause it. Is it going to be an implosion after he finally (and really finally this time) crosses the line for his supporters or will he straight up lose a hard fought primary election season?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2015, 02:04:36 AM »

Today marks my leaving the Rubio bandwagon, and jumping on board with Trump as the most likely nominee. I once was blind, but now I see.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2015, 02:14:47 AM »

He's hardly invincible and yet nothing seems to have done him in yet so I'm curious as to when he's going to go down and what is going to cause it.

He doesn't actually have to go down in order to lose the nomination.  He just has to not gain much more when other candidates drop out.  30% isn't enough to win the nomination.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2015, 02:27:10 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley
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Oakvale
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2015, 08:12:08 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

? Big Donald is hitting is highest poll numbers yet. Why on earth would he have randomly lost the lead within a week?

You establishment shills have been bleating that Trump will collapse for literally four months now. It's not going to happen.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2015, 08:19:32 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley
WOW, there's almost no way that is happening. The terror agenda is only helping Trump. I'm gonna say january at the earliest.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2015, 08:27:26 AM »

Hopefully soon.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2015, 09:01:45 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

i will bet you 5 actual euros that trump is still leading by the start of december.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2015, 09:03:13 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

i will bet you 5 actual euros that trump is still leading by the start of december.

Off topic here, but EVERGREEN why is your post count stuck at 6666? Lol.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2015, 09:05:21 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

i will bet you 5 actual euros that trump is still leading by the start of december.

Off topic here, but EVERGREEN why is your post count stuck at 6666? Lol.

deleting old posts. they're even shıttier than my newer posts, so, y'know…
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Figueira
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2015, 11:05:15 AM »

He's going to be the nominee and probably (by a 40-45% chance) elected president.

40-45% chance is not "probably."

Anyway, I don't know anymore. I'll say after Super Tuesday, but he might actually win at this point. Who knows?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2015, 11:16:35 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

LOL okay he's going to lose his growing lead within a week.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2015, 11:27:57 AM »

Trump is not going to lose his lead in the next week; what is wrong with you, eric82oslo? Carson's collapsing so Trump's not going to lose his lead to Carson, and the others are too far behind to possibly catch up in the next week.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2015, 11:31:31 AM »

The only way Trump can lose his lead is if Cruz really, really catches on fire.  Trump supporters are very passionate and dedicated, and with Fiorina dead and Carson dying (both at the hands of Trump), Cruz is the only other candidate who can appeal to them.

Rubio, I think, does not have the appeal to post up numbers in the 30s.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2015, 11:36:19 AM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking
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bertramhall
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« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2015, 08:52:15 AM »

Donald Trump will lose his lead in the Primary polls when his money is over and he becomes bankrupt the 5th time in his life.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2015, 11:51:45 AM »

I'm guessing at some point in mid to late January.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2015, 12:15:36 PM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

I do hope everyone in this thread has marked their calendars for Tuesday to remember to mock eric for this post.

Of course, if Trump somehow does collapse between now and Tuesday, I take it all back.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2015, 12:29:53 PM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

I do hope everyone in this thread has marked their calendars for Tuesday to remember to mock eric for this post.

Of course, if Trump somehow does collapse between now and Tuesday, I take it all back.

Rubio is going to give a speech later today that will be known as "The Thanksgiving Day Manifesto" and taught in public speaking courses for generations to come.  In it he will speak of the wonders of America and give specific plans for how he will rescue the country.  It will be scheduled to last 45 minutes but he'll go on for hours.  At the end he'll say "Trump thinks he's tough, but he's never even been to Syria.  I have, and I brought you a gift, America."  Then he'll bring Al-Baghdadi on stage and shoot him in the head.

Trump loses 15 points overnight and Rubio gains 15.

Of course since nobody is going to be polling over Thanksgiving weekend, Trump will still be ahead on Tuesday.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2015, 12:57:20 PM »

In January probably when Cruz passes him
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2015, 03:05:54 PM »

I don't think he will ever drop out, but he won't win the nomination.
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Averroės Nix
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« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2015, 12:53:24 AM »

I don't know how likely it is to be permanent, but I won't be surprised if Cruz gains a large enough share of support in national polls to take the lead by mid-December. I don't expect Trump's percentage to drop below 20-25% before Iowa, though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2015, 02:22:24 AM »

Dems want him to be nominee,  best chance they can galvanize Latino vote and win with Castro as Veep.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2015, 02:43:34 AM »

Dean still held onto his national polling lead even as his Iowa lead collapsed, didn't he?  (Not losing it until after he lost Iowa.)

Yeah, my hunch is that January will see some crazily large shifts in Iowa and New Hampshire polling as caucus/primary day approaches (as voters in those states near judgment day, and as they start to get bombarded by non-stop ads), but that Trump will hang onto his national polling lead, not losing it until some time after the primaries start.  (Whether that happens after Iowa, after New Hampshire, or later, I don't know.)

I guess a key moment will be on Iowa caucus night, when we see how many of Trump's "unlikely voters" show up.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2015, 03:24:14 AM »

If people don't answer by the start of December, they are by every single definition 100% delusional. Smiley

i will bet you 5 actual euros that trump is still leading by the start of december.

i'll take that as a retraction then
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