Nate Silver: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

[Torie]

Hi there, Lief.  Enjoy!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

No link to the Daily Mail, NewsMax or National Review? 

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No link to the Daily Mail, NewsMax or National Review? 

hey be fair: 538 has been about as reliable as those sites so far this cycle.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Wow. Nate Silver is arguing that Trump won't win almost as hard as he argued that Walker would.

[Adam Griffin]

Silver seems to be hedging his bet that Trump won't be the nominee on the following points:

• Trump is doing well because voters aren't paying attention
• Because the area of study that gave him his claim to fame has become increasingly sh**tty, Trump possibly isn't doing as well as the polls suggest
• Since LV models aren't being used, maybe there is an unprecedented discrepancy in what the polls show and what actual voters will do
• Voters change their minds, so hey, maybe something will come along and make them reconsider
• Nobody like Trump has won before

What if more voters start paying attention right before the primaries and like what Trump is saying just like everybody else currently? What if there isn't some unprecedented discrepancy between RV & LV models? What if the polls are actually right? What if - in net terms - voters don't change their minds or simply make the final decision where they already have been leaning? What if C-C-C-COMBOBREAKER?!

Uh, he really doesn't have much of a tangible case here. More weak garbage from Silver - what a low-energy loser these days!

[Torie]

Now, children, calm down. Does anybody think Trump does as well with Likely Voters as he does with Registered Voters? Sure Trump may be high energy, but his base is low information - just the type to be more interested in the theatrics as opposed to the substance, and then fail to do something as boring as going to the polls. Polling stations are not entertainment venues.

I'm looking forward to the next chapter of this drama, when Cruz and Trump claw at each other. That should be happening soon.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So, we're going to rely on Nate Silver trolling when Paul Krug man gave a very strong explanation on the opposite position.

[Edu]

So while Trump supporters can argue that he will be the nominee resorting to comments by amazing and respected economist Paul Krugman and genius political consultant Roger Stone, the Trump opponents are relegated to present the opinions of noted hack Larry Sabato and low energy loser dumbass Nate Silver.

Desperation is in the air

[Maxwell]

Here's the problem with that theory - The more Republicans pay attention to Trump, the MORE they think he's there guy, not less.

[Torie]

So, we're going to rely on Nate Silver trolling when Paul Krug man gave a very strong explanation on the opposite position.

Paul Krugman is one of those guys who postures himself as an expert on everything. Some might call that a symptom of egomania. Soon, no doubt, he's going to start lecturing Muon2 and myself as to how to redistrict.

[Torie]

So while Trump supporters can argue that he will be the nominee resorting to comments by amazing and respected economist Paul Krugman and genius political consultant Roger Stone, the Trump opponents are relegated to present the opinions of noted hack Larry Sabato and low energy loser dumbass Nate Silver.

Desperation is in the air

LOL. You know, hyperbole is against the terms of use around here.

[Maxwell]

So, we're going to rely on Nate Silver trolling when Paul Krug man gave a very strong explanation on the opposite position.

Paul Krugman is one of those guys who postures himself as an expert on everything. Some might call that a symptom of egomania. Soon, no doubt, he's going to start lecturing Muon2 and myself as to how to redistrict.

loooooooooooooool

[Adam Griffin]

Now, children, calm down. Does anybody think Trump does as well with Likely Voters as he does with Registered Voters? Sure Trump may be high energy, but his base is low information - just the type to be more interested in the theatrics as opposed to the substance, and then fail to something so boring as going to the polls. Polling stations are not entertainment venues.

I'm looking forward to the next chapter of this drama, when Cruz and Trump claw at each other. That should be happening soon.

There comes a point at which you have to admit that if 50-60% of your registered voters are dipsh!ts, that said number among likely voters isn't going to be substantially different. By five percentage points? Likely. Ten percentage points? Possibly. Yet, this isn't going to be a scenario in which Trump, Carson & Cruz combined are only pulling a third among LVs when compared to RVs.

Even more likely is that the dip-sh!ttery among the base isn't substantially different in terms of raw numbers, but rather, in distribution. So perhaps it ends up being a case among LVs that Carson's and Trump's numbers flip, but the overall end result remains.

[Skye]

I think Silver is kind of right. However, Trump's support is as unpredictable as his antics, so we should thread carefully.

[Adam Griffin]

So while Trump supporters can argue that he will be the nominee resorting to comments by amazing and respected economist Paul Krugman and genius political consultant Roger Stone, the Trump opponents are relegated to present the opinions of noted hack Larry Sabato and low energy loser dumbass Nate Silver.

Desperation is in the air

LOL. You know, hyperbole is against the terms of use around here.

So is attacking fellow posters!

[Torie]

So while Trump supporters can argue that he will be the nominee resorting to comments by amazing and respected economist Paul Krugman and genius political consultant Roger Stone, the Trump opponents are relegated to present the opinions of noted hack Larry Sabato and low energy loser dumbass Nate Silver.

Desperation is in the air

LOL. You know, hyperbole is against the terms of use around here.

So is attacking fellow posters!

Indeed it is - particularly on the Boards that I exercise some influence over.

[Torie]

I think Silver is kind of right. However, Trump's support is as unpredictable as his antics, so we should thread carefully.

Yeah, all BS aside, nobody, but nobody, really has a clue how all of this will pan out. Those that claim they do, are engaging in the ultimate act of hubris in my opinion.

[Lief 🗽]

Nate Silver needs to stick to averaging polls: it's all he's good at! Every time he tries any more in depth analysis, he totally embarrasses himself. I don't know what that low energy beta's obsession with Trump is... jealousy? Some sort of sick repressed lust? Either way, I think after this election he's done. ESPN is run by smart guys; they're not going to keep funding his failure of a vanity project.

[Torie]

Nate Silver needs to stick to averaging polls: it's all he's good at! Every time he tries any more in depth analysis, he totally embarrasses himself. I don't know what that low energy beta's obsession with Trump is... jealousy? Some sort of sick repressed lust? Either way, I think after this election he's done. ESPN is run by smart guys; they're not going to keep funding his failure of a vanity project.

[/b]

Gosh, you're good at what you do. I readily stipulate to that. I can't wait to read one of your briefs!

[Lief 🗽]

Thank you Torie. I agree with you that the only honest position here is to shrug and say "I don't know." I give Trump about a 40% chance of winning this point; he is far from a lock! I just get angry when these smug know it alls, like Mr. Silver, continue to make definitive predictions and call those who disagree with them ignorants, when they've been CONSISTENTLY and DISASTROUSLY wrong for months now (if you had made bets based on Nate's odds in August, you would have lost boatloads of money by this point).

[Torie]

No link to the Daily Mail, NewsMax or National Review? 

Here's one for you.

[The Other Castro]

No matter what happens with Trump, Nate Silver will end up writing an article at some point showing that he was "right" all along. Even if Trump wins, he'll argue along the same lines of when he says "Oh I wasn't wrong when I said this had a 1% chance of happening, because this was the 1 in the 100 times that it happened."

[Asian Nazi]

It's going to be funny when Nate Silver is proven right once again and I can laugh at all you people.

[RI]

I kind of want Trump to win just to put the dagger into Silver's newfound and inane editorializing.

[Maxwell]

It's going to be funny when Nate Silver is proven right once again and I can laugh at all you people.

So he'll be right one out of the ten times he said something this year. Yawn.