Nate Silver: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

[Adam Griffin]

Silver seems to be hedging his bet that Trump won't be the nominee on the following points:

• Trump is doing well because voters aren't paying attention
• Because the area of study that gave him his claim to fame has become increasingly sh**tty, Trump possibly isn't doing as well as the polls suggest
• Since LV models aren't being used, maybe there is an unprecedented discrepancy in what the polls show and what actual voters will do
• Voters change their minds, so hey, maybe something will come along and make them reconsider
• Nobody like Trump has won before

What if more voters start paying attention right before the primaries and like what Trump is saying just like everybody else currently? What if there isn't some unprecedented discrepancy between RV & LV models? What if the polls are actually right? What if - in net terms - voters don't change their minds or simply make the final decision where they already have been leaning? What if C-C-C-COMBOBREAKER?!

Uh, he really doesn't have much of a tangible case here. More weak garbage from Silver - what a low-energy loser these days!

[Adam Griffin]

Now, children, calm down. Does anybody think Trump does as well with Likely Voters as he does with Registered Voters? Sure Trump may be high energy, but his base is low information - just the type to be more interested in the theatrics as opposed to the substance, and then fail to something so boring as going to the polls. Polling stations are not entertainment venues.

I'm looking forward to the next chapter of this drama, when Cruz and Trump claw at each other. That should be happening soon.

There comes a point at which you have to admit that if 50-60% of your registered voters are dipsh!ts, that said number among likely voters isn't going to be substantially different. By five percentage points? Likely. Ten percentage points? Possibly. Yet, this isn't going to be a scenario in which Trump, Carson & Cruz combined are only pulling a third among LVs when compared to RVs.

Even more likely is that the dip-sh!ttery among the base isn't substantially different in terms of raw numbers, but rather, in distribution. So perhaps it ends up being a case among LVs that Carson's and Trump's numbers flip, but the overall end result remains.

[Adam Griffin]

So while Trump supporters can argue that he will be the nominee resorting to comments by amazing and respected economist Paul Krugman and genius political consultant Roger Stone, the Trump opponents are relegated to present the opinions of noted hack Larry Sabato and low energy loser dumbass Nate Silver.

Desperation is in the air

LOL. You know, hyperbole is against the terms of use around here.

So is attacking fellow posters!