Ted Cruz will win Iowa

[Pandaguineapig]

He has the Momentum, Money, and supporters who will actually show up to a caucus. I will gladly eat my own words if imparting but I honestly can't see anyone beating Cruz in Iowa at this point

[Cruzcrew]

I agree Cruz is probably gonna win Iowa but I can see Donald trump possibly winning Iowa If he lasts long enough.

[Lief 🗽]

Trump or Cruz are the most likely winners at this point, yes.

[Pandaguineapig]

I agree Cruz is probably gonna win Iowa but I can see Donald trump possibly winning Iowa If he lasts long enough.

Trump will do poorly in caucuses since polls show his supporters are usually the least educated and the least politically involved

[Holmes]

Trump or Cruz, it'll be close either way. But with Trump winning New Hampshire and Nevada, and possibly South Carolina, Cruz will suffer the same fate as Huckabee in 2008.

[Blair]

Yeah, his biggest rivals are Rubio or Trump

[Pandaguineapig]

Another their prediction ill make is while Trump may win a couple primaries he will not win a single caucus

[Sbane]

I really think Cruz will be the Republican nominee. The combination of Trump, Carson and Cruz consistently get more than a majority of the vote. The establishment candidates combined get about 25% of the vote. I think a lot of anti-establishment voters don't like Trump for multiple reasons but are not going to vote for an establishment candidate. They may be fine with Rubio being the nominee, but they are  not going to vote for him in the primaries. Trump, Carson or Cruz will be the nominee, and I don't see Carson winning and Trump is not liked by a large portion of the Republican electorate. Thus Cruz is the only one left standing.

[Young Conservative]

I disagree. I think Carson will win. The GOP has an evangelical Christian base in Iowa. Carson appeals the best to this group. His latest poll fall isn't due to him declining but Trump surging again. Carson will jump again in the future he isn't out yet.

[dudeabides]

I disagree. I think Carson will win. The GOP has an evangelical Christian base in Iowa. Carson appeals the best to this group. His latest poll fall isn't due to him declining but Trump surging again. Carson will jump again in the future he isn't out yet.

[Broken System]

I disagree. I think Carson will win. The GOP has an evangelical Christian base in Iowa. Carson appeals the best to this group. His latest poll fall isn't due to him declining but Trump surging again. Carson will jump again in the future he isn't out yet.

I disagree with your disagreement. Cruz and Carson are equally effective at garnering votes from Evangelicals. Iowa's support ultimately comes down to the strongest polling evangelical at the time of the caucus. With Carson sinking, that seems to be covered by Cruz.

[Young Conservative]

i don't think the sink will last

[Pandaguineapig]

i don't think the sink will last

Like Trump I don't think Carson has the organization to last long when the actual voting starts

[Young Conservative]

i have been part of his campaign force. Never before have I seen such an organized grassroots effort. it rivals Pres. Obama's

[Lief 🗽]

i don't think the sink will last

Like Trump I don't think Carson has the organization to last long when the actual voting starts

Trump has possibly the best organization in Iowa.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

i don't think the sink will last

Like Trump I don't think Carson has the organization to last long when the actual voting starts

Trump has possibly the best organization in Iowa.

These RINOs don't care about facts Lief. They just want to be coddled by the Establishment and spoon fed lies about how one of their low-energy flag bearers is somehow going to be the nominee.

[Pandaguineapig]

i don't think the sink will last

Like Trump I don't think Carson has the organization to last long when the actual voting starts

Trump has possibly the best organization in Iowa.

That doesn't exist he doesn't really have any staff or organization he just has high school dropouts obsessed with the cult of personality that post support for him on breitbart

[Young Conservative]

F A L S E. The people on my local committee are business professionals and military veterans (and a lot of doctors)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

F A L S E. The people on my local committee are business professionals and military veterans (and a lot of doctors)

And that means Mr. Rabid dog is going to win Iowa? Lol

[Pandaguineapig]

F A L S E. The people on my local committee are business professionals and military veterans (and a lot of doctors)

I'm not talking about Carson I'm talking about Trump who owes his lead solely to his dominance among those without a high school diploma

[Young Conservative]

oh my bad.  I have no comment haha *insert laughing face emoji*

[Leinad]

Yeah, I think Cruz will win Iowa. Carson, Trump, and Rubio also have a shot, but I'm not so sure. Each of them would need to gather a fairly large base around them to win, obviously, and the conservative group that won Huckabee and Santorum the last two Iowa caucuses should be enough for Cruz. Then again, some will go to Carson, and those who only care about immigration and reckless insults could go to Trump. But, then again again, Carson and Trump might help Cruz by splitting the "we really don't want another career politician in the White House" group (and honestly, Cruz might snatch some of that as well, considering that he's vehemently opposed the same Gop establishment they loathe).

I disagree. I think Carson will win. The GOP has an evangelical Christian base in Iowa. Carson appeals the best to this group. His latest poll fall isn't due to him declining but Trump surging again. Carson will jump again in the future he isn't out yet.

How does Carson appeal more that Cruz to the social conservative voting block? Carson has said varying thing about abortion, and theology (socially conservative voters care about religion), while Cruz has stayed consistent in his accross-the-board conservatism.

Carson might win, however, due to being more likeable, appealing to those who don't want a politician winning (but Trump will catch lots of that, as well), and perhaps having more "moderately-conservative" appeal than Cruz (who is labeled as an "angry extremist" more than Carson), but it won't be due to being more socially conservative. I also think Carson's open opposition to the Iraq War could help him, but that might just be a case of me projecting my views onto my analysis--a fallacy that annoys me like a barking dog at 3 AM.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Well this did just happen, he's 2% behind Trump now....



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2305

[Enduro]

It's possible, but I also think Trump or Carson has a great chance to win Iowa.

[The Mikado]

i don't think the sink will last

Like Trump I don't think Carson has the organization to last long when the actual voting starts

Trump has possibly the best organization in Iowa.

That doesn't exist he doesn't really have any staff or organization he just has high school dropouts obsessed with the cult of personality that post support for him on breitbart

Um...what?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-donald-trumps-ground-game-looks-in-early-states-2015-11-23

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Where does this idea that Trump doesn't have a campaign organization come from?