IL Congressional Races

[muon2]

Nov 23 was the first day of filing for the Mar 15, 2016 primary ballot. Filing was open through 5 pm Nov 30 and is closed from Nov 26 through 29. Petition objections were filed by 5 pm Dec 7. Hearings of the State Board of Elections either overrules the objection or removes the candidate from the ballot.

The current candidates are:

US Senate (Kirk)
D: Andrea Zopp, Tammy Duckworth, Napoleon Harris
R: Mark Kirk, James Marter, Elizabeth Pahlke

IL-1 (Rush)
D: Bobby Rush, Patrick Brutus, Howard Brookins, Harold Bailey
R: August Deuser, Jimmy Lee Tillman

IL-2 (Kelly)
D: Marcus Lewis, Robin Kelly, Dorian Myrickes, Charles Rayburn
R: John Morrow

IL-3 (Lipinski)
D: Daniel Lipinski
R: Arthur Jones

IL-4 (Gutierrez)
D: Luis Gutierrez, Javier Salas

IL-5 (Quiqley)
D: Mike Quigley
G: Rob Sherman, Warren Grimsley, Richard Mayers

IL-6 (Roskam)
D: Robert Marshall, Amanda Howland
R: Peter Roskam, Gordon Kinzler, Gerald Drabik

IL-7 (Davis)
D: Danny Davis, Thomas Day, Frederick Collins

IL-8 (Duckworth)
D: Michael Noland, Raja Krishnamoorthi, Deborah Bullwinkel
R: Peter DiCianni, Joseph Hantsch, Andrew Straw, Richard Evans

IL-9 (Schakowsky)
D: Janice Schakowsky
R: Joan Lasonde, David Williams, Susanne Atanus

IL-10 (Dold)
D: Brad Schneider, Nancy Rotering
R: Robert Dold

IL-11 (Foster)
D: Bill Foster
R: Tonia Khouri, Herman White, Nick Stella

IL-12 (Bost)
D: Charles Baricevic
G: Paula Bradshaw, Sadona Folkner
R: Michael Bost

IL-13 (Davis)
D: Mark Wicklund
R: Rodney Davis, Ethan Vandersand

IL-14 (Hultgren)
D: Jim Walz, John Hosta, Jesse Maggitt
R: Randall Hultgren

IL-15 (Shimkus)
R: John Shimkus, Kyle McCarter

IL-16 (Kinzinger)
R: Adam Kinzinger, Colin McGroarty

IL-17 (Bustos)
D: Cheri Bustos
R: Patrick Harlan, Jack Boccarossa

IL-18 (LaHood)
R: Darin LaHood

[ill ind]

Mark Wicklund filed today to run as the D candidate in Il-13

Ill_Ind

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Lol, that Schneider/Dold seat seems like it'll keep swinging back and forth between the two of them until one of them gets primaried or dies.

[ill ind]

Third day of filing
and the following can be added:

6th  Amanda Howland D
4th Javier Salas D
5th Rob Sherman Green

  The last one is the most interesting.  The Greens have a ballot position in the 5th CD.  Rob Sherman is a well known litigator for atheist causes.  I wonder why he's doing this?  His address is Buffalo Grove which is no where near the 5th CD.

  Also--that Muon2 guy filed today too!!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lol, that Schneider/Dold seat seems like it'll keep swinging back and forth between the two of them until one of them gets primaried or dies.

Or one of them holds it for more than a term. Keep in mind that Kirk will solidly carry the district even if he's losing statewide by 5 or 6. Dold can skirt in on his coattails.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the Rauner experiment is over, and a clean sleight of Dems will be elected in 2016, 2018. I think Dems will win IL 10. 2012, elected Schneider and they will again.

[muon2]

5th Rob Sherman Green

  The last one is the most interesting.  The Greens have a ballot position in the 5th CD.  Rob Sherman is a well known litigator for atheist causes.  I wonder why he's doing this?  His address is Buffalo Grove which is no where near the 5th CD.

In 2014 the Greens ran candidates in IL-5 and IL-12 who both exceeded 5% of the vote. By exceeding 5% the Greens continue to be an established party in those two districts. Their small vote total in the 2014 primary translates into a very small signature threshold - 12 and 13 signatures respectively. IL has no residency requirement for Congressional candidates other than the federal requirement that they live in the state. It's in the Greens' interest to maintain their qualifications by nominating someone for 2016.

[Kingpoleon]

Kinzinger is being attacked for telling the truth about the PP shooting.

[muon2]

Filing is closed in IL (except for President in January). The next date for the congressional offices is Dec 7, which is last day to file an objection. I'll note which petitions are under an objection after that date.

[Mr. Illini]

Good to see that Dems at least have an announced in 13. Not sure what it will amount to, but I was worried for awhile that Davis was going to go unopposed. Also hoping that Gill can't get the signatures - an indy run on his part is a lose-lose-lose-lose for everyone.

I am nervous about the potential of a Dold victory. I think many voters in the district are looking to settle on either Dold or Schneider and Dold is incumbent and has been pretty successful at building his moderate brand. It isn't a seat that Dems can afford to lose for good.

[Mr.Phips]

Good to see that Dems at least have an announced in 13. Not sure what it will amount to, but I was worried for awhile that Davis was going to go unopposed. Also hoping that Gill can't get the signatures - an indy run on his part is a lose-lose-lose-lose for everyone.

I am nervous about the potential of a Dold victory. I think many voters in the district are looking to settle on either Dold or Schneider and Dold is incumbent and has been pretty successful at building his moderate brand. It isn't a seat that Dems can afford to lose for good.

The nature of that seat ensures that Dold will be tightly pressed in every election. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The one congressman that is completely unopposed is the most junior one in the state. Interesting.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The one congressman that is completely unopposed is the most junior one in the state. Interesting.

I live in that district. Most Republican in the state. It takes in all the rich parts of Peoria and its suburbs, the highly Republican Bloomington area, most of the outskirts of Springfield, and a huge swath of highly conservative rural territory. Aaron Schock took about 75% in 2012. Dems have no chance here. Republican voters seem to want to give LaHood a chance to show them what kind of congressman he will be. He's basically a blank slate at this point, and primary challengers usually bear the burden of proof.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Republican in the 3rd district is literally a neo-nazi nut. WTF? Its not like this is a terribly unwinnable district either.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Republican in the 3rd district is literally a neo-nazi nut. WTF? Its not like this is a terribly unwinnable district either.

Well, it's pretty close to unwinnable. Even Rauner lost it (barely). And Lipinski is a conservadem anyways.

[Miles]

The Republican in the 3rd district is literally a neo-nazi nut. WTF? Its not like this is a terribly unwinnable district either.

Its moderately Democratic federal tint belies its more heavy local lean. In 2014, its average statewide vote was a few notches to the left of the state:

[muon2]

One of the dark arts of IL politics is the petition objection. The rules for a proper petition to get on the ballot are arcane and require not merely following the statutes, but know how those statutes have been interpreted by the courts. Some are very strict and others are rather loose. A good lawyer who knows the ancient secrets can save a campaign a bundle by eliminating opposition before any votes are cast. A certain President used a petition objection to knock the incumbent State Senator off the ballot in his first run.

Today was the last day to file objections to the petitions for the March 15 primary. I've underlined all the candidates who now are under objection. The hearings for the objections will start in a few days and take place over the next few weeks.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait, every candidate in the 7th district is under objection? ROFL. What happens if all three of them are invalidated?

[muon2]

Wait, every candidate in the 7th district is under objection? ROFL. What happens if all three of them are invalidated?

Then they can file as write-ins on or before Jan 14 with the city and county election officials. If they don't file by then write-in votes don't count.

If no one gets the primary nomination then the party can slate a candidate who must gather signatures on a new petition submitted by May 31.

[ill ind]

  Hey if you can't beat the competition--use some sort of arcane laws to have them knocked off the ballot!!  It's the Illinois way.

  People have been cast off the ballot for stapling petition pages together instead of binding them, not numbering petition pages and all sorts of ridiculous minutia that all combine to give connected election attorneys a substantial income.

  That being said, it's common knowledge that this system is broken--its just that its too beneficial for many incumbents who would rather game the system than face legitimate opposition for any of it to change.

  That being said,  at present I see only one possible Illinois District that may possibly change hands.  Il-10 may go back  to the Dems--and may alternately swing back and forth for some time
 to come.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

Looks like logn term incumbent Bobby Rush may be toast as he is short of signatures on his nomination papers!!  Alderman Howard Brookins, who is also running for the seat, has pretty much stated that he has Rush where he wants him.

If Rush is knocked of the ballot it would be a pretty ignominious end for the only guy to hand Barack Obama a electoral defeat--and then proceeded to have him drawn out of his district before the next election.

Ill Ind

[muon2]

Looks like logn term incumbent Bobby Rush may be toast as he is short of signatures on his nomination papers!!  Alderman Howard Brookins, who is also running for the seat, has pretty much stated that he has Rush where he wants him.

If Rush is knocked of the ballot it would be a pretty ignominious end for the only guy to hand Barack Obama a electoral defeat--and then proceeded to have him drawn out of his district before the next election.

Ill Ind

Brookins has a couple of the top IL election attorneys working for him, so I expect that the challenge is on pretty solid ground. One report claims Rush only has about 750 valid signatures out of 1314 minimum. Rush may have many of the signatures sustained, but it's a long way to get back up to the minimum.

[ill ind]

  The maddening thing about Illinois' petition objections is the randomness of it all.

  In 2008, John Polachek got on the Il presidential ballot with one signature-his own.  Because his petitions weren't challenged, he got on the ballot despite not meeting the law in terms of his petition.

  However, a candidate can collect twice the number of signatures needed, and still get kicked off the ballot due to minutiae such as not numbering their petition papers, stapling them together instead of fastening them together or any other such nonsense.

  It all comes down a luck of the draw as to whether or not another person in the race wants to eliminate you as competition and whether or not they put up the bucks to hire an attorney (election law is a practice in Il) to find all the archaic loopholes to keep people off.

[ill ind]

  It looks like Bobby Rush will survive the petition challenge initiated by Howard Brookins' campaign.  The signature check was yesterday and it appears that he has 90 more signatures more than needed to survive.

Ill Ind

[muon2]

Almost all the objections have been heard. The OP reflects the current status - two objections are yet to be resolved.