IA-Quinnipiac:Trump 25% Cruz 23% Carson 18% Rubio 13% Paul 5% Bush 4% Fiorina 3%
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  IA-Quinnipiac:Trump 25% Cruz 23% Carson 18% Rubio 13% Paul 5% Bush 4% Fiorina 3%
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac:Trump 25% Cruz 23% Carson 18% Rubio 13% Paul 5% Bush 4% Fiorina 3%  (Read 1861 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #25 on: November 24, 2015, 07:22:31 PM »

Interesting. Looks like the Carson boomlet is over with. Meanwhile, Trump marches onward.

Democratic numbers tomorrow, I guess?

Yep, and I'm guessing Sanders will be within 10, maybe 5.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2015, 07:47:37 PM »

Interesting. Looks like the Carson boomlet is over with. Meanwhile, Trump marches onward.

Democratic numbers tomorrow, I guess?

Yep, and I'm guessing Sanders will be within 10, maybe 5.

Have you heard something or is that just a total guess on your part?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #27 on: November 24, 2015, 07:53:32 PM »

Interesting. Looks like the Carson boomlet is over with. Meanwhile, Trump marches onward.

Democratic numbers tomorrow, I guess?

Yep, and I'm guessing Sanders will be within 10, maybe 5.

Have you heard something or is that just a total guess on your part?

Mostly a gut feeling based on their past numbers in comparison to other numbers released at the same time.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #28 on: November 24, 2015, 11:53:20 PM »

Interesting. Looks like the Carson boomlet is over with. Meanwhile, Trump marches onward.

Democratic numbers tomorrow, I guess?

Yep, and I'm guessing Sanders will be within 10, maybe 5.

Have you heard something or is that just a total guess on your part?

Mostly a gut feeling based on their past numbers in comparison to other numbers released at the same time.

Ah, okay.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2015, 12:06:01 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2015, 12:16:34 AM by eric82oslo »


This part is quite telling. It's just very unlikely that Trump will win Iowa - especially now that he's almost lost his lead there - and highly likely that either Cruz or Rubio will win it in the end (if not Carson reemerges there, which he very well could once the media attacks are dimming down on thim). I'd say that it's an 85-90% chance at this point that either Cruz, Rubio or Carson will win the Iowa caucuses. Since caucuses are so diametrically different from primaries, in the way that a candidate ultimately has to garner support even from voters who don't have him or her as their first choice, it just makes the chance of Trump actually winning Iowa infinitely much smaller. Near all of the Bush, Kasich, Christie, Paul, Huckabee, Santorum, Fiorina supporters will rather support Cruz/Rubio/Carson than Trump. Almost every poll ever released show this to be a very clear fact. Together, Cruz/Rubio/Carson have almost twice the support as Trump already, and that will only increase as voters get more serious and stop paying attention to Trump's endless drama and childish attention seeking.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2015, 12:15:43 AM »

Since caucuses are so diametrically different from primaries, in the way that a candidate ultimately has to garner support even from voters who don't have him or her as their first choice, it just makes the chance of Trump actually winning Iowa infinitely much smaller.

You're thinking of the Democratic caucus method, where your candidate needs 15% in that precinct, or you have to pick someone else.  The Republicans don't do that.  They just have a straight up straw vote, and you're free to vote for a candidate who no one else supports, and it still counts.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #31 on: November 25, 2015, 12:18:19 AM »

Since caucuses are so diametrically different from primaries, in the way that a candidate ultimately has to garner support even from voters who don't have him or her as their first choice, it just makes the chance of Trump actually winning Iowa infinitely much smaller.

You're thinking of the Democratic caucus method, where your candidate needs 15% in that precinct, or you have to pick someone else.  The Republicans don't do that.  They just have a straight up straw vote, and you're free to vote for a candidate who no one else supports, and it still counts.


That's ridiculous and sad. Once again Republicans have a lot to learn from Democrats. Electing a consensus builder is a much better idea than to elect some very controversial figure. Now I suddenly understand how Santorum could win Iowa last time around lol. Tongue
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2015, 12:24:41 AM »


It's around the same time Huckabee started his surge in 2008. And Cruz is still trailing Trump by a significant margin in most polls.  

Iowa is not most polls. Iowa is Iowa and always had and always will continue to have, a completely different dynamic. Obviously because it's a caucus and a very conservative state on the GOP side, as well as being a Northern inland/Agricultural state, but most importantly perhaps because voters there pay a lot more attention to the race and the candidates than in almost any other state, especially at this relatively early point in the campaign.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2015, 12:28:10 AM »

Since it's QU, I'd expect Clinton will be up by 10% or so.
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