Key to Defeating the Islamic State -Create a New Sunni State

[Frodo]

Some excerpts:

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Thoughts?

[ingemann]

It's not the world's worst idea, the area is ethnic cleansed enough that you create a Sunni Arab state of eastern Syria and western Iraq. It would also give us a state to settle the Sunni refugees and the opposition to Assad in. Also if we created this state it would be easier to occupy as it would lack most of the sectarian troubles, which ensured partisan and terrorist activity in Iraq, so I don't think it's impossible to establish a democratic but somewhat illiberal state. Assad would likely protest against this, while the Shia in Iraq would accept it as they kept the vast amount of the oil (and the fertile south), with the Kurds keeping most of the rest. Would the state be viable; mostly, it would have some oil and gas, but more importan two large rivers would run through it.

[Storebought]

In essence, this means recreating Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

[ingemann]

In essence, this means recreating Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

No not really, Hussein's Iraq was a state dominated by the small non-tribal Sunni population around Baghdad who use the tribal Sunnis to keep the 75% Kurdish and Shia population down. This state will not be centred around Baghdad. The centre of this state will lie on the border of Iraq and Syria and it will be dominated by the tribal Sunnis, which may not be a bad thing because none of the tribes are strong enough to dominate.

[2952-0-0]

The only public statement John Bolton should be making (in an ideal world) is through his defense lawyer at the Hague.

[Adam Griffin]

I could see something like this working, perhaps. Put most of Shiite Syria with Lebanon, keep most of the rest of Syria intact and unite it with western Iraq, and while we're at it, give the Kurds and Yezidi a home by detaching the remainder of the Sunnis in the north from Iraq.

This would finally give the Kurds and Yezidi a peaceful home to mediate tensions in that part of the region, would easily make Iraq >80% Shia and ditto for Syria/Sunni, and would keep roughly the same religious balance in the new Lebanon while expanding its influence as a stabilizing force in the region. Of course, Iran would hate all of this...

[OSR stands with Israel]

To have any stability in the gulf the West needs to get rid of that horrible Sykes-Picot Agreement

[Famous Mortimer]

To defeat ISIS, people want to listen to a proposal by John Bolton, one of the main proponents of the Iraq War?

Even looking at the proposal without taking into consideration who it's from, isn't the popular thing now to blame the middle east's problems on the Europeans drawing borders.

So now people want to have the the UN come in and draw even more craggly borders?

[ingemann]

I could see something like this working, perhaps. Put most of Shiite Syria with Lebanon, keep most of the rest of Syria intact and unite it with western Iraq, and while we're at it, give the Kurds and Yezidi a home by detaching the remainder of the Sunnis in the north from Iraq.

This would finally give the Kurds and Yezidi a peaceful home to mediate tensions in that part of the region, would easily make Iraq >80% Shia and ditto for Syria/Sunni, and would keep roughly the same religious balance in the new Lebanon while expanding its influence as a stabilizing force in the region. Of course, Iran would hate all of this...

Interesting suggestion, the problems are that it place 75% of the Syrian non-Sunni in the Sunni Arab state plus a significant part of Kurds (likely over 50%). My suggestion would be that from the eastern Jordanian border you make a line up to just east of Aleppo. From where you Greater Lebanese border touch Turkey, you make a line just north of Aleppo to the Kurdish territory. The Kurdish areas in Iraq expand down to "Shiastan" as that area is populated by Kurds. "Shiastan" are mostly fine.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

People, countries are not blocks of lego to be dismantled and reconstructed at will according to what seems most 'rational' at that time. We have over 100 years of history (at least) to back this up.

There are some pretty absurd suggestions in this thread, but perhaps the strangest is that the Lebanon would want more territory. Given that the Lebanon is constantly engaged in a sectarian tightrope walk as it is, why would it want to further complicated matters by adding new territory or people. Unless the 'it' referred to is Hezbollah which would probably like many more Shia Muslims in Lebanese territory, but the Christians, the Sunni and the Druze would probably disagree.

[Blue3]

This is not a good idea.

[mencken]

That would have been a good preventative measure to enact in, say, 2003, when Western powers had the means of creating a cooperative Sunni state. As things are now, ISIS is that Sunni state (as was the entirety of Iraq prior to Bush's Folly).

[Simfan34]

My proposal: place all of Arab Asia under the rule of a Hashemite Caliphate. Will the friendly Caliph Abdullah's mutilated body be thrown out a window? Maybe, but I say it's worth the risk.

[RI]

This would be very bad for Lebanese Christians.

[ingemann]

This would be very bad for Lebanese Christians.

Not really the people it would hurt the most was Lebanese Sunnis, Alawites have always had a good relationship with Alawites.

[palandio]

Alawites and Alawites? Do you mean Alawites and Maronites?

What can be said is that the map posted by Adam Griffin is lumping together Alawites (mostly in Syria and the Turkish province of Hatay, a small number in northern Lebanon), Alevis (mostly in Turkey) and orthodox Twelver Shia Muslims (in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and some Syrian towns like Nubl and al-Fuah). The Alawites of Latakia and Tartus are different from Lebanese Shia Muslims. I would mention though that there are attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to introduce a more orthodox Shia Islam among Syrian Alawites.

[mencken]

My proposal: place all of Arab Asia under the rule of a Hashemite Caliphate. Will the friendly Caliph Abdullah's mutilated body be thrown out a window? Maybe, but I say it's worth the risk.

I favor this. Of course, one could say that Iraq is merely getting its comeuppance after how its people treated his cousin.

[Simfan34]

My proposal: place all of Arab Asia under the rule of a Hashemite Caliphate. Will the friendly Caliph Abdullah's mutilated body be thrown out a window? Maybe, but I say it's worth the risk.

I favor this. Of course, one could say that Iraq is merely getting its comeuppance after how its people treated his cousin.

Well yes, I was alluding to the fate of that cousin's uncle.

[Adam Griffin]

People, countries are not blocks of lego to be dismantled and reconstructed at will according to what seems most 'rational' at that time. We have over 100 years of history (at least) to back this up.

Well, they certainly are on a maps forum!


With regards to the Lebanese issue: there really isn't a great solution, unless you just make northern coastal Syria its own country (perhaps you could hand it to Turkey, but meh). From a macro perspective, it might be better to have such issues confined to predominantly one country, instead of having it bubbling over in several countries across the region. If one looks at the estimates that Lebanon has currently taken in 1.2 million refugees and one also inspects the displacement map of refugees, then it's a fairly safe assumption that a) Lebanon's resident population has swollen by 20% solely from refugee displacement since the beginning of this conflict, and b) that a good portion of these individuals are going to be from places like Homs, Hama, and so forth anyway (with the remainder - perhaps a majority - being displaced Sunnis).

What I would really like to see is what percentage of the natural population from Homs north to Idlib and westward to the coast have already been displaced, considering this is ground zero for a lot of the clashing. Estimates suggest 7 million Syrians have been displaced - it's likely that a good percentage, maybe a majority, of these are from western Syria and have already been absorbed into Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Now obviously that is not the same thing as forming an entirely new governing authority - complete with new territory - in which all of these individuals are permanently established, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to discover that the area of conflict in question looks completely different (at least in nominal figures) to what it has traditionally, with the vast majority of that discrepancy either already in Lebanon's borders or removed from the location in question.

I've seen a wildly varying series of figures for estimates of Lebanon's share of the population that is Christian (up to 40%), but I would bet that when factoring in the swell of refugees, the percentage of individuals who are Christian and currently residing within its borders is a lot less than it was even just three years ago. Also possible is the fact that among those who have sought refuge in Lebanon, a disproportionate number of these individuals are the Christians in western Syria, with Shias in the area being among a more sizable group seeking refuge in Turkey. That might have reduced some of the potential shifts in overall population currently within its borders.

[palandio]

[...]
If one [...] inspects the displacement map of refugees[/url], then it's a fairly safe assumption that [...] a good portion of these individuals are going to be from places like Homs, Hama, and so forth anyway (with the remainder - perhaps a majority - being displaced Sunnis).

I fear that you are misinterpreting the map. "Internally displaced by region" imho counts the number of internally displaced persons currently residing in the respective region (within Syria) and not the number of persons that have fled from there. (The map is not clear on this. In fact the map is quite bad not only because of its unclear legend but also because using shaded areas to display absolute numbers is a deathly sin.)

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On the contrary the province of Tartus and most of Latakia are among the "safest" places within Syria, if you are not an opposition activist. Many internally displaced Syrians are fleeing to Latakia, not because they love Assad, but because there is food, electricity and (almost) no bombs.

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Western Syria (if you mean the axis Aleppo-Idlib-Hama-Homs-Aleppo-Daraa) is the most densely populated part of Syria. Obvious that a good percentage of refugees stems from there.
From what I have read the majority of Syrian refugees is Sunni. The reason is that rebel and disputed territories have the worst living standard at the moment plus constant bombing and that most of these regions were almost exclusively Sunni Arab before the war (and still are, but much less populated).

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While I generally appreciate the effort put in the confessional distribution map, I think that the mapmakers have made a real mistake when in comes to the Alawites (the heterodox semi-Shia sect in Western Syria and the Turkish province of Hatay).
Firstly, the province of Hatay has been Turk-ized since its annexion to Turkey in 1939. Arab Alawites constitute an overall minority (and a majority in three small rural districts out of twelve districts.) The remaining population is majority Sunni (with a small Christian minority).
Secondly, most Syrian Alawites hate Erdogan and Erdogan hates Syrian Alawites. Why should Alawites have a preference for Turkey rather than multi-confessional Lebanon.

Edit: Sorry if some of the things that I wrote above come over as rude. Now that I am reading again what you have written, I think that many of your points are worth discussing. It's just that you are providing so many points for discussion at the same time and that I may have misunderstood some of them.