Sanchez ends up winning CA Senate in 2016?

[Nyvin]

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Politics-Voices/2015/1124/A-sleeper-Senate-race-in-California

Basically the idea that there are multiple Republican candidates to divide the vote, preventing any of them from beating Sanchez or Harris.   Sanchez and Harris end up facing each other in the GE, and Republican voters side with Sanchez (since Harris is much more liberal than Sanchez) and thus Sanchez awkwardly wins the Senate seat in 2016.   

Think this is probable?

[Xing]

It's possible, but I wouldn't call it probable.

[Mr. Smith]

Virtually nil given:

- Harris already being the establishment darling regardless of other factors

- Harris being on the verge of becoming like Obama '08, she just has to play her cards right

- Sanchez' reputation, which will not endear a lot of dissatisified conservatives

- Republicans could very just stay home in despair at such an outcome and refuse to vote at all, which more than favor Harris.

[Maxwell]

I've read Harris' campaign so far has been fairly underwhelming, she's burning money very quickly and raising it slower and slower. I think she's ahead because everyone else is doing worse, but her momentum as a candidate appears to be stalling.

[DrScholl]

Harris isn't that much more liberal than Sanchez, although Sanchez is more connected to moderates. In order to win, Sanchez would have to pick up a good number of right-leaning independents and I don't see her being able to do that with a standard liberal record. If Harris and Sanchez make the general, there will be a lot of Republicans leaving the ballot blank.

[Joe Republic]

Can you imagine GOP turnout in California with Trump as the presidential nominee, and no Republican at all for Senate? 

[Maxwell]

Can you imagine GOP turnout in California with Trump as the presidential nominee, and no Republican at all for Senate? 

RIP Jeff Denham, David Valadao, and Steve Knight.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can you imagine GOP turnout in California with Trump as the presidential nominee, and no Republican at all for Senate? 

RIP Jeff Denham, David Valadao, and Steve Knight.

Well, from what I know of the past couple of elections, Valadao has major cross over support (he even got 58% in 2012), but those other two would be endangered.

[Kingpoleon]

As it stands, the opposite's more likely. This is Safe D as long as one of them makes it past the run off.

[Figueira]

I would think it would be hard for Sanchez to win enough Republicans AND enough Democrats to beat Harris.

[Nyvin]

As it stands, the opposite's more likely. This is Safe D as long as one of them makes it past the run off.

I don't see any scenario where at least Harris doesn't make the top two.    She regularly polls around 30% with all the Republicans polling in the single digits.  

Also Sanchez is easily second.    There will have to be significant winnowing on the Republican side for one of them to slip into the General.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/ca/california_senate_primary-5338.html

[Ogre Mage]

I would say a Sanchez victory is unlikely and predicated on significant political mistakes made by Harris.  That could happen, but Harris is clearly in the pole position in CA.  She is the establishment choice and has the platform of a key statewide office.  Sanchez is little known outside of her congressional district.  Harris' higher profile is a particularly significant advantage in a large and expensive state like California where almost the entire campaign has to be conducted through the media.  In very small states retail politics tend to count more, giving a lesser-known candidate an opportunity to introduce themselves.