Is Iowa a Republican State Now?

[Young Conservative]

3/4 Republican Representatives
2 Republican Senators
A Republican Governor
95% of the Electorate in 2014 was White According to Exit Polls
Joni Ernst Won White Women, and White Men by 51% and 58% respectively
39% of Iowans Considered themselves conservative in 2014, compared to 23% Liberals
Joni Ernst Won Independents 53-41
Republicans Comprise 37% of the Electorate Compared to 32% Democrats
High school graduate (22%)
57% Ernst
Some college/assoc. degree (29%)
52% Ernst
College graduate (31%)
57% Ernst
82% of Iowans Attend Religious Services at Least Occasionally
40% Attend Weekly
38% are White Evangelical Born Again Christians
57% View the Democrats Unfavorable Compared to 49% Viewing the Republicans Equivalently


So, Has Iowa Transitioned into a Republican State as Trends are Suggesting?

[Asian Nazi]

No, it's just that all of their recent statewide races have taken place during GOP waves. 

[Rockefeller GOP]

Until it votes for a GOP nominee for President again, it's not a "red state" (people weren't calling WV or AR "blue states" in 2008 even though Democrats controlled absolutely everything).  However, locally it's a little more Republican than Democratic.

[ElectionsGuy]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

[Young Conservative]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

[Gass3268]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state.

This hasn't happened in the Upper Midwest or the Northeast. The white vote % fluctuates each election based on the issues and environment, especially in the Upper Midwest. Upper South is where the biggest shift has occurred and what is driving the national white numbers to move to the Republicans.

White vote by county in 2012

[Mr. Smith]

Not to mention for the Senate, Bruce Braley really f^%$d up.

[YaBoyNY]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

The white vote that has remained relatively stable and has, infact, become increasingly Democratic in the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and West?

[Nyvin]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

The polls have definitely disagreed with you,  Rob Blum is not particularly liked in the area.   

I'd honestly say this is one of the most likely seats to flip next year,  along with NV-4.

The white populations that are trending Republican are mostly in the South and Appalachia btw.

[Asian Nazi]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

The white vote that has remained relatively stable and has, infact, become increasingly Democratic in the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and West?

But muh inevitable Solid R Midwest! -Desperate Atlas Republicans

[YaBoyNY]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

The white vote that has remained relatively stable and has, infact, become increasingly Democratic in the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and West?

But muh inevitable Solid R Midwest! -Desperate Atlas Republicans

My absolute favorite is how Ohio trended Democrat in 2012, but they don't consider that a sign of a long-term trend.

Michigan, meanwhile, trends Republican once in the past 3 elections, and it's now the "next big swing state."

[Rockefeller GOP]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

The white vote that has remained relatively stable and has, infact, become increasingly Democratic in the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and West?

But muh inevitable Solid R Midwest! -Desperate Atlas Republicans

Aren't you the guy who thinks NH is a Toss-up?

Jesus, let it go.  You're pathetically obsessed with this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, it isnt, its a rural state that have an urban city in it Des Moines and it votes GOP, it is a Democratic one presidentially.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

The white vote that has remained relatively stable and has, infact, become increasingly Democratic in the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and West?

But muh inevitable Solid R Midwest! -Desperate Atlas Republicans

Aren't you the guy who thinks NH is a Toss-up?

Jesus, let it go.  You're pathetically obsessed with this.

NH was even more Democratic than VT in 2014. Of all the New England gubernatorial races, NH went Democratic by the largest margin.

Hassan was a popular incumbent.  It was also the most Republican state in 2012, ties Maine for the most Republican Congressional delegation and has the most Republican state legislature, but I'm sure that doesn't matter to you.  Gotta stick to that agenda.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

No, although I certainly hope it will become one in the future.  They still have a couple Democrat officeholders statewide, and President Obama carried the state twice.  Even if the GOP candidate takes it in 2016 (which is by no means a given), one election does not a red/blue state make.  That's why I get so upset when I hear the media talk about a state "turning red" or "turning blue" after one election.

That being said, I would not at all be surprised if Iowa becomes more Republican in the future.  Most of the big urban centers (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Davenport, Dubuque, etc.) that could provide significant Democrat support have declined so much over the last few decades (as part of the larger trend of out-migration from the Midwest) that they could soon be outvoted regularly by the rural Republican centers.

[Mehmentum]

Republicans have a good election cycle in Iowa and suddenly its a solid R state.  Its obviously a swing state.

[RI]

Virginia has two Dem senators and a Dem governor, plus has voted Dem each of the last two Presidential elections. Sounds like a solid Dem state to me.

Maine has a Republican governor and two non-Dem senators. Guess it's a Republican state, too.

[hopper]

Iowa is essentially the swingiest state you're going to get in a country as polarized as we are. 2014's impact is significant, but still the State Senate, Attorney General, and Treasurer are all Democratic controlled. I don't expect Republican to hold IA-01 next year and Ernst's Senate seat will be hotly contested in 2020. That's without the presidential race, which will almost certainly be a toss-up.

I expect IA-01 to remain Republican. In nation where whites are becoming increasingly republican, as is evident by the last several election cycles, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats, which are polarizing whites, to win such a homogenous state. I doubt the republicans will allow Joni Ernst to lose. She's a rising star and if it is contested, Republicans will pour money into a state that is already showing trends in favor of the GOP.

The white vote that has remained relatively stable and has, infact, become increasingly Democratic in the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and West?

But muh inevitable Solid R Midwest! -Desperate Atlas Republicans

My absolute favorite is how Ohio trended Democrat in 2012, but they don't consider that a sign of a long-term trend.

Michigan, meanwhile, trends Republican once in the past 3 elections, and it's now the "next big swing state."

Well Ohio is a "purple state".  The Republicans do control the governorship and both state legislative bodies. Yes Obama did win the state twice. Every Presidential Candidate that has won the presidency hasn't lost Ohio since 1960.

Michigan is a Lean D state because of the UAW basically.

Anyway, nah Iowa is a "purple state".

[Bojack Horseman]

No, although I certainly hope it will become one in the future.  They still have a couple Democrat officeholders statewide, and President Obama carried the state twice.  Even if the GOP candidate takes it in 2016 (which is by no means a given), one election does not a red/blue state make.  That's why I get so upset when I hear the media talk about a state "turning red" or "turning blue" after one election.

That being said, I would not at all be surprised if Iowa becomes more Republican in the future.  Most of the big urban centers (Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Davenport, Dubuque, etc.) that could provide significant Democrat support have declined so much over the last few decades (as part of the larger trend of out-migration from the Midwest) that they could soon be outvoted regularly by the rural Republican centers.

Depends on the state. We all know West Virginia isn't going back.

[Central Lake]

It is 2021 now.

[Schiff for Senate]

Eerie foreshadowing...Most of what the original post said still applies today, and at the presidential level IA is now 12 points to the right of the country.

3/4 Republican Representatives
2 Republican Senators
A Republican Governor
95% of the Electorate in 2014 was White According to Exit Polls
Joni Ernst Won White Women, and White Men by 51% and 58% respectively
39% of Iowans Considered themselves conservative in 2014, compared to 23% Liberals
Joni Ernst Won Independents 53-41
Republicans Comprise 37% of the Electorate Compared to 32% Democrats
High school graduate (22%)
57% Ernst
Some college/assoc. degree (29%)
52% Ernst
College graduate (31%)
57% Ernst
82% of Iowans Attend Religious Services at Least Occasionally
40% Attend Weekly
38% are White Evangelical Born Again Christians
57% View the Democrats Unfavorable Compared to 49% Viewing the Republicans Equivalently


So, Has Iowa Transitioned into a Republican State as Trends are Suggesting?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Iowa is lean Republican, whether that counts as a Republican state is subjective. It's definitely drawn to Trump as a person, that much is clear.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa is lean Republican, whether that counts as a Republican state is subjective. It's definitely drawn to Trump as a person, that much is clear.

It's hard to figure what the appeal of Donald Trump is in Iowa... and whether that transfers to Republicans in 2022 or later. The state gave the majority of its votes for Congressional Reps to Democrats in 2018. Iowa is on probation as an R state. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is lean Republican, whether that counts as a Republican state is subjective. It's definitely drawn to Trump as a person, that much is clear.

It's hard to figure what the appeal of Donald Trump is in Iowa... and whether that transfers to Republicans in 2022 or later. The state gave the majority of its votes for Congressional Reps to Democrats in 2018. Iowa is on probation as an R state. 

It's not just Trump, FOO supports Kim Reynolds I live right next door to IA, IL, and WI I know the states back and forth

WI will vote for Mandela Barnes due the bridges and roads like in Pittsburgh need badly update and Iowa, likes Reynolds she keeps crime low in the state and balanced budgets

[Young Conservative]

Eerie foreshadowing...Most of what the original post said still applies today, and at the presidential level IA is now 12 points to the right of the country.

3/4 Republican Representatives
2 Republican Senators
A Republican Governor
95% of the Electorate in 2014 was White According to Exit Polls
Joni Ernst Won White Women, and White Men by 51% and 58% respectively
39% of Iowans Considered themselves conservative in 2014, compared to 23% Liberals
Joni Ernst Won Independents 53-41
Republicans Comprise 37% of the Electorate Compared to 32% Democrats
High school graduate (22%)
57% Ernst
Some college/assoc. degree (29%)
52% Ernst
College graduate (31%)
57% Ernst
82% of Iowans Attend Religious Services at Least Occasionally
40% Attend Weekly
38% are White Evangelical Born Again Christians
57% View the Democrats Unfavorable Compared to 49% Viewing the Republicans Equivalently


So, Has Iowa Transitioned into a Republican State as Trends are Suggesting?

Thanks:) Maybe Atlas should listen to me more hahaha