The electoral map in 20 years
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  The electoral map in 20 years
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Author Topic: The electoral map in 20 years  (Read 8488 times)
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MagneticFree
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« on: November 26, 2015, 05:30:38 PM »

Is this map plausable in 2035?

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Clark Kent
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2015, 06:33:19 PM »

There is absolutely no indication that Texas is becoming a swing state.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2015, 11:21:49 AM »

South Carolina is Tilt R if GA & NC are toss-up.
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Vern
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2015, 11:51:40 AM »

I believe this next election will tell show us what the electoral map will start to look like.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2015, 11:48:28 PM »

Missouri has trended R lately why would it trend back D?
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2015, 11:58:04 PM »

Why on earth would Oregon and Washington trend R? Unless both parties change their platforms, I honestly don't see too many big changes. The West and the coastal south could become more Democratic (especially AZ, CO, NV, NC, and VA), and parts of the rust belt (MI, OH, PA) could trend a bit Republican.

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Clark Kent
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2015, 12:03:16 AM »

Maybe something like this:

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MK
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2015, 01:28:52 AM »




I think about of posters have TX as a toss up in the future due to increased minority (Latino) voters.   Also more people are moving there from all parts of the country.  It will take a few more elections for it to start showing .. 2024?    But 20 years is almost like a generation.   

But honestly all of this is hard to predict because events and other factors wars, recessions etc.. an make one party rise and the other fall.  The Bush 2000's really set the Republicans back for awhile. 
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Figueira
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« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2015, 10:44:07 AM »


If the Democrat wins that election, they'll have a tough time getting anything done with the Republicans controlling the Senate.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2015, 08:46:24 PM »

Nah, this is obviously what the map is gonna look like.


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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2015, 09:00:19 PM »

There is absolutely no indication that Texas is becoming a swing state.

B-b-b-but muh demographics Sad

Here's my map which assumes a close 50/50 election:





I bet you anything Maine doesn't vote to the right of NH.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2015, 11:44:07 PM »

This thread is so stupid.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2015, 01:17:54 AM »


You're not talking about my map, right? Cry
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2015, 07:33:17 AM »

There is absolutely no indication that Texas is becoming a swing state.

B-b-b-but muh demographics Sad

Here's my map which assumes a close 50/50 election:





I bet you anything Maine doesn't vote to the right of NH.

Why? Maine - unlike NH - does not border the bluest of blue states (NH-02 is actually pretty competitive).
According to you it does.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2015, 12:03:12 PM »

There is absolutely no indication that Texas is becoming a swing state.

B-b-b-but muh demographics Sad

Here's my map which assumes a close 50/50 election:





I bet you anything Maine doesn't vote to the right of NH.

Why? Maine - unlike NH - does not border the bluest of blue states (NH-02 is actually pretty competitive).


This is a lie.  Maine borders NH, of course.

In all seriousness, what does NH bordering MA have anything to do with it becoming more liberal?  The most Republican part of the state is the Boston suburbs.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2015, 01:07:12 PM »

There is absolutely no indication that Texas is becoming a swing state.

B-b-b-but muh demographics Sad

Here's my map which assumes a close 50/50 election:





I bet you anything Maine doesn't vote to the right of NH.

Why? Maine - unlike NH - does not border the bluest of blue states (NH-02 is actually pretty competitive).


This is a lie.  Maine borders NH, of course.

In all seriousness, what does NH bordering MA have anything to do with it becoming more liberal?  The most Republican part of the state is the Boston suburbs.

I'm pretty sure he was talking about NH bordering VT.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2015, 09:08:31 PM »

Absolutely not. Texan hispanics are more republican on average substantially Abott actually won hispanic males. Also, third generation hispanics are more likely to be republican.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2015, 10:00:42 PM »

Twenty years ago:

-West Virginia was a solidly Democratic state that even a doomed Jimmy Carter carried in 1980.
-Virginia leaned Republican despite the recent loss of Oliver North for Senate.
-Florida had voted for the loser in 1992.
-Arizona had not gone Democratic since 1948.
-Vermont had voted Democratic only twice.
-New Hampshire was considered a conservative state.
-Muslims were swing voters.
-Arkansas had been the most Democratic state in the previous election.
-Washington and Oregon were viewed as only Democratic leaning.
-Despite 1994, Democrats were over 200 in the House and even held UT-03.
-California was a "critical swing state."

All of this is totally untrue today, but basically nobody would have been able to predict most of the shifts since then. Don't assume a trend can't halt or even be reversed.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: December 18, 2015, 08:21:41 AM »




I think about of posters have TX as a toss up in the future due to increased minority (Latino) voters.   Also more people are moving there from all parts of the country.  It will take a few more elections for it to start showing .. 2024?    But 20 years is almost like a generation.   

But honestly all of this is hard to predict because events and other factors wars, recessions etc.. an make one party rise and the other fall.  The Bush 2000's really set the Republicans back for awhile. 
It is important ton note that A. Latino population growth is declining. B. Latino turnout is dismal C. Texas latinos are FAR more conservative than the national average.

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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2015, 08:57:27 AM »




I think about of posters have TX as a toss up in the future due to increased minority (Latino) voters.   Also more people are moving there from all parts of the country.  It will take a few more elections for it to start showing .. 2024?    But 20 years is almost like a generation.   

But honestly all of this is hard to predict because events and other factors wars, recessions etc.. an make one party rise and the other fall.  The Bush 2000's really set the Republicans back for awhile. 
It is important ton note that A. Latino population growth is declining. B. Latino turnout is dismal C. Texas latinos are FAR more conservative than the national average.



The underlined quote is true, but Texas Latinos are still a Democratic constituency.  In addition, the National Republican Party has worked overtime to offend Latinos to the point where the 40% of the Latino vote George W. Bush once received in Texas will be hard to approach.
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windjammer
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« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2015, 11:20:49 AM »

This thread is horrible.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #21 on: December 19, 2015, 01:02:02 PM »

Because it's not like WV voted in a Democrat for president by a fifteen-point margin twenty years ago or anything like that...
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #22 on: December 19, 2015, 01:38:22 PM »

Because it's not like WV voted in a Democrat for president by a fifteen-point margin twenty years ago or anything like that...
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #23 on: December 19, 2015, 05:59:38 PM »




I think about of posters have TX as a toss up in the future due to increased minority (Latino) voters.   Also more people are moving there from all parts of the country.  It will take a few more elections for it to start showing .. 2024?    But 20 years is almost like a generation.   

But honestly all of this is hard to predict because events and other factors wars, recessions etc.. an make one party rise and the other fall.  The Bush 2000's really set the Republicans back for awhile. 
It is important ton note that A. Latino population growth is declining. B. Latino turnout is dismal C. Texas latinos are FAR more conservative than the national average.



The underlined quote is true, but Texas Latinos are still a Democratic constituency.  In addition, the National Republican Party has worked overtime to offend Latinos to the point where the 40% of the Latino vote George W. Bush once received in Texas will be hard to approach.
Rick Perry got over >40% of the Latino vote there in all of his gubernatorial elections, IIRC. If, say, Villalba was nominated against a white or black Democrat, he'd easily make their vote a toss-up.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2015, 06:31:28 PM »




I think about of posters have TX as a toss up in the future due to increased minority (Latino) voters.   Also more people are moving there from all parts of the country.  It will take a few more elections for it to start showing .. 2024?    But 20 years is almost like a generation.   

But honestly all of this is hard to predict because events and other factors wars, recessions etc.. an make one party rise and the other fall.  The Bush 2000's really set the Republicans back for awhile. 
It is important ton note that A. Latino population growth is declining. B. Latino turnout is dismal C. Texas latinos are FAR more conservative than the national average.



The underlined quote is true, but Texas Latinos are still a Democratic constituency.  In addition, the National Republican Party has worked overtime to offend Latinos to the point where the 40% of the Latino vote George W. Bush once received in Texas will be hard to approach.
Greg Abott WON hispanic males. so clearly it isn't out of reach.
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