The electoral map in 20 years
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  The electoral map in 20 years
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buddy36
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« Reply #25 on: December 20, 2015, 07:40:26 PM »

I think GOP will wise up and look at 55 EV motherload and invest in CA and cement apartment majority.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: January 07, 2016, 04:36:51 PM »

Who in the 1990s would have ever expected Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia to swing so far to the Right and Virginia to swing so far to the Left?
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #27 on: January 07, 2016, 04:46:26 PM »

Who in the 1990s would have ever expected Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia to swing so far to the Right and Virginia to swing so far to the Left?

No one.  Which is why extrapolating our current climate/coalitions/issues and even polarization to any more than 8 years from now will make us all look very silly someday.
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DS0816
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« Reply #28 on: January 08, 2016, 01:21:21 PM »

I think GOP will wise up and look at 55 EV motherload and invest in CA and cement apartment majority.

That would require the Republican Party to cleanse their "party" of their racists, xenophobes, homophobes, and general haters-of-all-who-are-not-like-them [white older men].
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #29 on: January 08, 2016, 02:18:54 PM »

I think GOP will wise up and look at 55 EV motherload and invest in CA and cement apartment majority.

That would require the Republican Party to cleanse their "party" of their racists, xenophobes, homophobes, and general haters-of-all-who-are-not-like-them [white older men].

Republicans have been getting the votes of wealthy, old, White men for over a century.  There's also never been a time where they haven't had a significant xenophobic element, as evidenced by a wealth of primary texts.  The only thing they need to cleanse is racists.
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Seneca
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« Reply #30 on: January 08, 2016, 07:51:31 PM »

As a base case, here is Romney 2012 with 2036 demographics [source].



As you can see, the future of the Republican Party in presidential elections is not very bright, if they continue to perform as they do now and if demographic changes happen as projected. Of course, no trends last this far out.

Let's mix things up a bit.

Prediction #1: Hispanics start voting a bit more like whites as they assimilate into anglo society. Unlike the base case, this is a map that a Republican candidate can win. That said, Democrats still have a clear advantage.



Prediction #2: Water scarcity becomes a serious problem in the Southwest, a problem which residents experience as skyrocketing utility rates. Eventually, the region's poor are forced to leave, with many of them settling in the Southeast. I simulate that by shifting a percent of Democratic votes from west to east.



Prediction #3: Rising tides and devastating hurricanes cause mass migration from Southern Florida and Southern Louisiana northward, particularly into Georgia. By 2036, Georgia is an incredibly important, elector-rich swing state, the focal point of presidential elections like Ohio today. Both Louisiana and Florida become more Republican. Mississippi tilts over into the D column.



Prediction #4: Northern whites become more conservative. I expect labor force participation of whites, and white men in particular, to continue to shrink over the next two decades. I expect one consequence of this change in the labor market to be white men becoming more susceptible to radical politics, in particularly to Trump-style ultraconservatism.

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RRusso1982
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« Reply #31 on: February 12, 2016, 01:05:58 PM »

I think that Rust Belt states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin trend more Republican friendly. Unions are dying in influence and the demographics of those states keep getting more Republican friendly.  Older and whiter. 
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Camaro33
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« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2016, 09:57:18 AM »

Connecticut will never become a tossup or Republican state.

Businesses (and thus taxpayers), conservatives, and old retirees are leaving this state in droves, mainly to southern states. This is a mostly conservative cohort of voters leaving a heavily Democratic state. In any presidential election year now or in the distant future, Republicans have no shot at any nationally represented or state-wide office. Rust-belt states and some southern states will trend Republican, essentially leaving New England a liberal quarantine.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2016, 12:04:31 PM »

Rust-belt states and some southern states will trend Republican, essentially leaving New England a liberal quarantine.

[citation needed]
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #34 on: February 18, 2016, 03:37:31 AM »
« Edited: February 18, 2016, 03:46:32 AM by MohamedChalid »

I think the south will become more Democratic with growing latino population and the north more republican due to the large white Population.

dark=solid D/R
normal color: likely D/R
light= leaning D/R
grey= pure tossup


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Virginiá
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« Reply #35 on: February 18, 2016, 04:33:53 PM »

Why do so many people think Oregon will be competitive now or even a swing state in the future? There is little to nothing to suggest that Oregon is trending anywhere except to being more liberal/Democratic.

Unless of course I'm missing something here..
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