In a Rubio vs Hillary election, predict Orange County (CA) results

[Kingpoleon]

Sen. Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Fmr. Sec. Condoleezza Rice(R-CA) - 54.9%
Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Rep. Jared Polis(D-CO) - 44.0%

[DrScholl]

Hillary almost certainly will win by 2-3 points.

Lol Obama couldn't even win it in 2008, how is Hillary supposed to win it?

Continued trend of urban areas swinging to Democrats added to growth in the minority population in Orange.

It already was teetering as a swing county.   I fully expect to have a Dem tilt by 2016.   

It'd be awesome if Issa was kicked to the curb as well.

That could happen. Areas like Garden Grove and Fullerton could flip, which would boost the overall Democratic baseline in the county. Garden Grove actually flipped Democratic from 2008 to 2012.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rubio would get between 51-54, Hillary 45-48. Very static and polarized county now, not much room for movement on either side.

[TDAS04]

Rubio wins by 5 points.

[Sbane]

Rubio would get between 51-54, Hillary 45-48. Very static and polarized county now, not much room for movement on either side.

I don't know why everyone is assuming the Asian and Hispanic vote won't swing and is static. I know that subsample margin of error plays a huge role, but the Hispanic and Asian vote seem to be pretty swingy to me. And those Asian and Hispanic swing voters will live precisely in an area like Orange County. Places like Irvine (for Asians) or Orange/Placentia (for Hispanics) come to mind. Of course if Trump is the nominee, I wouldn't be surprised if the great OC votes for Hillary.