U.S. Birthrates Rising Again After the Great Recession

[Frodo]

I know this article is at least five months old, but no one seems to have to posted it yet:

U.S. birth rate finally rises, thanks to moms in their 30s and early 40s

By: Karen Kaplan
JUNE 17, 2015, 12:13 PM

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For perspective, the pre-recession birthrate was 2.12 births per woman in 2007 (according to the US Census Bureau and the World Bank).  While a corner has been turned (finally) in our years-long decline, we clearly haven't recovered to those levels yet.

Although, some are predicting that we could be nearing the brink of a new Baby Boom in the developed world (including in the United States).

[Ban my account ffs!]

I've been hearing these weird hints about a coming baby boom.  I'm skeptical...but then nobody predicted the last baby boom.

There is a pattern... even before optimism really sets in.. people who have been putting off children begin to blink.  They start having babies.  Other people around them, wanting to raise children at the same time as friends or other family members, start having babies.

Soon there's a trickle down and women start having them younger.  This really gets the boom going.

Pretty soon everybody is popping out kids like candy.  And then like that.. the boom dries up.  Older women stop having kids and that spreads as you enter into a new "baby bust".

Interestingly... Kennedy's death in 1963 probably triggered the sudden halt in the baby boom.  Births in late 1964 and into 1965 fell substantially.  People were just not making babies in the brave new world that followed JFK's assassination.  The era of optimism was over.

[Cubby]

Interestingly... Kennedy's death in 1963 probably triggered the sudden halt in the baby boom.  Births in late 1964 and into 1965 fell substantially.  People were just not making babies in the brave new world that followed JFK's assassination.  The era of optimism was over.

While that does make some sense, the birth rate peaked in 1947 and the total number of births peaked in 1957. It declined almost every year after that, the introduction of the pill in 1960 greatly accelerating the trend. I prefer to look at the rate per 1,000 population, instead of per 1,000 women. It seems news articles don't use this number anymore, which is annoying.

United States Birth Rate

1957  25.0
1960  23.7
1970  18.4
1980  15.9
1990  16.7 (Baby Boom echo)
2000  14.4 (Gen X being smaller than Baby Boomers, total rate declines.
2007  14.0 (Economy was pretty good from mid 2003 until this year, after birth rate had plunged during 01-03 recession
2013  12.5 (Great Recession: Millenials and Older Gen X'ers delay having children)

[Ban my account ffs!]

Even if birth control was the method people used to stop having more kids in the mid 1960s, it was ultimately the mood that drove it.  And when you have much higher control over your reproductive system, mood becomes more important than ever.

The main driver of the baby "bust" during the 1960s and 70s was older women no longer having kids.  This trend was especially acute for women born in the 1930s and 40s... who rushed to have children early... but births among women over 35 peaked at some 425,000 in 1959 and fell to 233k in 1970 and 145k in 1976. 

The generation born in the 30s and 40s rushed to have kids early while those born after 1950 wanted them later and later.  That trend continues to today... but it could change.

The best measure of fertility is the cohort fertility rate... that is the actual number of children that a woman born during a certain time period has over her entire reproductive life.  Because of that you can't really tabulate the figures until women reach about age 45.

The rates for cohort fertility declined from our foundation as a nation until the group of women born around 1905.  These women were part of the group putting off childbirth in the roaring 20s only to see their hopes dashed with the depression.  They were actually a big part of the beginning of the baby boom around 1940 and reversed the long downward trend in older births which then went up until 1960.  Anyway.. they had on average 2.25 children.

The Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR) rose with each 5-year grouping to 3 children for those born 1931-1935.  Then it fell to 1.9 for those born 1951-55 (the ones who came of age during stagflation/gas lines/Watergate).  It hovered around 2 until the age groups born in the late 1960s and has risen to 2.2 for women born 1971-75... though those born in 1975 are only 40 and it could go a bit higher.  All indications are that the 1976-1980 cohort will be even higher.

That said, the boom is expected because you can't really delay child birth much longer than we already are.  As soon as the increase in average mothers age stops increasing.. it will mean births will increase because the momentum will swing back.  And with already increasing fertility rates.. we could easily see births surpass 5 million in the next 10 years.

[DINGO Joe]

Final Birth Data for 2014 released by NCHS

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/births.htm

As noted birth rate rose from 12.4 to 12.5

Teen birth rate fell from 26.5 to 24.2 looks like every state except Wyoming had a decrease.

Biggest numerical gainers--Texas and California

Biggest numerical decliners--WV and New Mexico

Biggest percentage gainer--North Dakota (so many boomer babies will never have any memory of their birth state).

Biggest percentage decliner--WV (coal) and while it had a tiny gain in births this state actually had a .2 decline in birth rate--Utah.  Maybe the Morms are getting a little tuckered out.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

Obama's birth control isn't working.

[Ebsy]

Obama's birth control isn't working.

That's because the contraception mandate was struck down.

[DINGO Joe]

Given the decline in birth rates among teens and 20-24, I'm guessing birth control is getting into the right hands, however it's getting there.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Given the decline in birth rates among teens and 20-24, I'm guessing birth control is getting into the right hands, however it's getting there.

This

Birth rates among girls and women aged 15-24 is probably at the lowest it's been in human history except during extreme war/famine.

The increase in births is being driven by increasing rates of women over 30 having children.  Also.. the population of women in their 30s is increasing as well after it had fallen for a while and then stagnated once baby boomers had aged into their 40s (they are now all in their 50s and 60s)