Hawaii in 2004
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  Hawaii in 2004
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Author Topic: Hawaii in 2004  (Read 5971 times)
Eomer
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« on: November 27, 2015, 03:16:45 AM »

1.) How did Bush almost manage to win Honolulu County?

2.) How can congressional district no. 2 be colored in the 50% shade when Kauai, Maui and Hawaii Counties are >60% Kerry and when congressional district no. 1 is >50% Kerry? Wouldn't that mean that Bush won the Honolulu County area beyond district no. 1?
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andrew_c
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2015, 07:20:17 AM »

At the state level, the Democrats hold every House and Senate seat on Kauai, Maui, and Hawaii.  The strongest Republican areas in the state are on Oahu outside of central Honolulu, where all the Republican state reps and senators hold their seats.  So yes, Bush would probably have won those areas, while losing the rest of the state. 
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Hydera
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2015, 10:53:30 AM »
« Edited: November 27, 2015, 03:08:56 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

1. Honolulu suburbs/rural/etc.


Also Linda Lingle being a popular non-controversial governor might of resulted in a "up-ballot" support for George Bush in hawaii.

By late-2004 there was a economic rebound in hawaii when the economy was moribund in the 90s, mainly because of a rebound in the tourism sector which led to republicans to be temporarily competitive in the state during the 2000s.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HINA
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2015, 02:14:56 PM »

I think the military and the Mormons have a high presence in Honolulu County.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2015, 02:49:17 PM »

This was the only state in the nation in 2004 where minorities were more likely to support Bush than Kerry. Kerry won whites 58-42 but only carried Asians 52-48. Non-white men in Hawaii split evenly between the candidates, while Kerry won white men 52-48. White women also voted ten points more for Kerry than non-white women. Granted, whites are technically a minority in Hawaii, but it's a strange result nonetheless.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/HI/P/00/epolls.0.html
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Hydera
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2015, 03:11:14 PM »

This was the only state in the nation in 2004 where minorities were more likely to support Bush than Kerry. Kerry won whites 58-42 but only carried Asians 52-48. Non-white men in Hawaii split evenly between the candidates, while Kerry won white men 52-48. White women also voted ten points more for Kerry than non-white women. Granted, whites are technically a minority in Hawaii, but it's a strange result nonetheless.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/HI/P/00/epolls.0.html


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/HI/P/00/epolls.0.html

I think we have our answer to the other question.


Better family fiscal situation(43%) 64%(+33) /  36% (Kerry)
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2015, 01:00:00 PM »

Hawaii tends to have a pretty high pro-incumbent bias, and even moreso during wartime for obvious reasons.
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Vega
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« Reply #7 on: November 28, 2015, 08:28:13 PM »

He did so well because the Bush/Cheney campaign actually tried there, the latter visiting a couple of times. Hawaii isn't that liberal of a state; I'd estimate about half of the current Democratic State Representatives and Senators should actually be Republicans.

If the Republicans tried to win it, they probably could. In the next 50 years, it might be one of the few states with an increasing white demographic, though the jury is probably still out on that.

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Rick Grimes
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2016, 02:36:47 PM »

hawaii is only reaslly a lean dem state full of conservative dems (one could say reagan dems) just look mike gabbard. it will go back 2 being close this time i think out of fear of the chinese but obama did so well because that was his hometstate and hawaiians wanted to vote for local boy barack obama. trump should invest in hawaii, he could VERY will win it.
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hopper
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2016, 05:56:51 PM »

hawaii is only reaslly a lean dem state full of conservative dems (one could say reagan dems) just look mike gabbard. it will go back 2 being close this time i think out of fear of the chinese but obama did so well because that was his hometstate and hawaiians wanted to vote for local boy barack obama. trump should invest in hawaii, he could VERY will win it.
Out of fear of Chinese People moving there?
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hopper
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2016, 07:15:02 PM »

He did so well because the Bush/Cheney campaign actually tried there, the latter visiting a couple of times. Hawaii isn't that liberal of a state; I'd estimate about half of the current Democratic State Representatives and Senators should actually be Republicans.

If the Republicans tried to win it, they probably could. In the next 50 years, it might be one of the few states with an increasing white demographic, though the jury is probably still out on that.


Well its Moderately Liberal I think.
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Andy Hine
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2016, 07:50:12 PM »

hawaii is only reaslly a lean dem state full of conservative dems (one could say reagan dems) just look mike gabbard. it will go back 2 being close this time i think out of fear of the chinese but obama did so well because that was his hometstate and hawaiians wanted to vote for local boy barack obama. trump should invest in hawaii, he could VERY will win it.
dude...
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