Labrador by-election

[Hatman 🍁]

Now that the budget vote passed, the only election we will be seeing is the federal by-election on May 24 in the riding of Labrador. Labrador has 27,000 people - much smaller than the average Canadian riding of around 105,000. It makes up all of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador in Labrador. Basically all of mainland Canada east of Quebec!
Main cities are Labrador City, Happy Valley-Goose Bay and Wabush.

Labrador is a strong Liberal riding. The incumbent, Lawrence O'Brien died back in December creating this vacancy. In 2004 he had over 60% of the vote. Since the province entered confederation in 1949, Labrador has only been Conservative once- from 1968 to 1972.

In the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly Labrador has 4 ridings- 2 are held by the Liberals, 1 for the Progressive Conservatives and 1 vote the New Democrats.


Candidates:
-Ern Condon: Running as an independent; is leader of the Labrador Party,  a provincial party advocating seperation from the rest of the province. He ran in 2004, and got 10% of the vote.
-Jason Crummery: Green Party candidate; Ran for leader of the federal Greens in 1996 and 2003. Lives in the Northwest Terrories, and helped create the Terra Nova Green Party. Greens got 2% of the vote in 2004.
-Frances Fry: New Democratic Party candidate; She is the Co-ordinator of the Labrador West Status of Women Council. The N.D.P. got 10% of the vote in 2004.
-Graham Letto: Conservative Party candidate; He is the Mayor of Labrador City- the largest city in the riding. The Conservatives had 30% of the vote in 2004.
-Todd Russell: Liberal Party candidate; He is the President of the Labrador Metis Nation. It should be noted that Labrador is 35% First nations.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I probably would vote for either Condon or Letto.  I'd vote Letto if I wanted a new election quickly and I thought he had a chance of winning, otherwise I'd vote Condon.

[Hatman 🍁]

I probably would vote for either Condon or Letto.  I'd vote Letto if I wanted a new election quickly and I thought he had a chance of winning, otherwise I'd vote Condon.

May I ask why?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I like the idea of a seperate province or territory of Labrador.  Also if Quebec ever becomes independent, it'll be politically easier for Nord-du-Quebec to join Labrador than for it join Newfoundland and Labrador or remain in Canada as a territory of its own.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I like the idea of it becoming a territory too, but I think that would be best done on the provincial level. (i.e. the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly). Also note, Labrador has less people than Nunavut- Canada's smallest territory.

[minionofmidas]

I'd be voting for the guy with the reddest skin.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd be voting for the guy with the reddest skin.

What's so great about sunburned Scandanavians?

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump. elections.ca will have results starting at 7:30 EST. I believe that's 8:30 in Labrador. (9pm in Newfoundland)

[Hatman 🍁]

7/85 polls in

Liberal 222 votes
Conservatuve  121 votes
NDP 12 votes
Ind. 5 votes
Green 1 vote

[Jake]

Condon or Letto for Ernest's reasons.

[Hatman 🍁]

15/85 polls

Conservative   Graham Letto   345   32.0   32.0%
Green Party   Jason Crummey   5   0.5   0.5%
Independent   Ern Condon   41   3.8   3.8%
Liberal   Todd Russell   609   56.4   56.4%
N.D.P.   Frances Fry   79   7.3   7.3%

[Hatman 🍁]

50/85 polls. Looks like the Liberals will be winning this seat

Conservative   Graham Letto   1,898   32.4   32.4%
Green Party   Jason Crummey   21   0.4   0.4%
Independent   Ern Condon   295   5.0   5.0%
Liberal   Todd Russell   3,148   53.8   53.8%
N.D.P.   Frances Fry   488   8.3

[Emsworth]

50/85 polls. Looks like the Liberals will be winning this seat

Nothing unexpected, though...

[Hatman 🍁]

50/85 polls. Looks like the Liberals will be winning this seat

Nothing unexpected, though...

That's true. Although the Liberal's are down 7.8% and the Conservatives are up 16.4%! (from 2004)

[Hatman 🍁]

65/85 polls are in

Conservative   Graham Letto   2,536   32.6   32.6%
Green Party   Jason Crummey   28   0.4   0.4%
Independent   Ern Condon   384   4.9   4.9%
Liberal   Todd Russell   4,119   52.9   52.9%
N.D.P.   Frances Fry   718   9.2   9.2%
Total number of valid votes:       7,785   

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a first.. it looks like the turnout is higher than in the general election. Pretty rare for a by-election!

Liberals down to 50% 76/85 polls

Conservative   Graham Letto   3,151   33.2   33.2%
Green Party   Jason Crummey   54   0.6   0.6%
Independent   Ern Condon   568   6.0   6.0%
Liberal   Todd Russell   4,745   50.0   50.0%
N.D.P.   Frances Fry   974   10.3   10.3%

[Siege40]

With the Liberals capturing this seat they can maintain control of the House much easier.

Siege

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

85/85 Polls

Conservative   Graham Letto   3,415   32.3%   (+16.5%)
Green Party   Jason Crummey   68   0.6%   (-1.4%)
Independent   Ern Condon   598   5.7%   (-5.7%)
Liberal   Todd Russell   5,438   51.5%   (-11.3%)
N.D.P.   Frances Fry   1,045   9.9   (+0.3%)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like Green and Labrador Party voters voted tactically.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Green and Labrador Party voters voted tactically.

Yep. The NDP increased ever so slightly, but basically stayed the same. The tories doubled their vote.

On the news, they keep saying Labrador is the safest Liberal seat in Canada. It is so obviously not.

[minionofmidas]

So, what's this mean? No elections? Can the thread be unstickied?

[Hatman 🍁]

So, what's this mean? No elections? Can the thread be unstickied?

Which thread? "Canada 2005" ? Certainly not! The British one was up there well before the election was called.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They'll be an election *fairly* soon... within a year or so for cert. We're certainly into phoney war territory now...