Nine weeks to Iowa: who wins it on the GOP side?
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  Nine weeks to Iowa: who wins it on the GOP side?		 « previous next »
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Question: See above
#1
Trump		  
#2
Cruz		  
#3
Carson		  
#4
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Total Voters: 90

Author Topic: Nine weeks to Iowa: who wins it on the GOP side?  (Read 1109 times)
The Mikado
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« on: November 30, 2015, 12:36:45 AM »
See above. I won't do this weekly...but maybe every few weeks.

We're getting close now.
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Bigby
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2015, 12:40:29 AM »
Cruz, but not by a substantial amount.
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I support Sanders
Bernie2016
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2015, 12:41:44 AM »
Of the candidates whose names you listed, I would say Trump.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2015, 12:45:44 AM »
Here's a dumb guess with some dumb numbers thrown out.

29% Cruz
24% Trump
12% Rubio
10% Carson
6% Paul
5% Santorum
5% Bush (DISASTER)
3% Huckabee (DISASTER)
3% Christie
2% Fiorina (DISASTER)
1% Kasich
0% Low Energy Losers

Fiorina, Bush, Santorum, and Huckabee all drop out, with Kasich and Paul considering it deeply (Carson plans to stay until South Carolina). Cruz won by a slightly bigger margin than expected, mostly at the expense of Carson. Santorum gets a late bump in Iowa, but not nearly enough to get to anywhere respectable (though he does edge out Bush, rofl lmao). Paul also does better than expected (at Trump's expense), but not nearly enough to get out of a meager fifth place.
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GLPman
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« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2015, 12:51:03 AM »
Quote from: Bigby on November 30, 2015, 12:40:29 AM
Cruz, but not by a substantial amount.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2015, 12:51:09 AM »
Cruz will break 30%.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2015, 12:52:50 AM »
It will ultimately come down to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz -and my money is on Ted Cruz. 
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Figueira
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2015, 12:59:00 AM »
Aaaah, I missed that this was Iowa. Voted Rubio; should have voted Cruz.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2015, 03:15:43 AM »
75% Cruz
25% Trump
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2015, 03:30:57 AM »
Chance of winning IA:

Trump: 30%
Cruz: 25%
Carson: 21%
Rubio: 15%
Paul: 5%
Field: 4%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2015, 04:02:30 AM »
The Cruz surge is happening too early. My money is on Trump.

The GOP establishment better hope that they can stop Trump here though because if he wins Iowa, he is almost certainly going to roll right through New Hampshire and South Carolina.
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Cory
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2015, 08:55:26 AM »
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2015, 08:59:39 AM »
Recent history indicates that the Iowa GOP is so desperate to vote for the evangelical candidate in the race that they'll do so regardless of circumstances. That candidate clearly isn't Trump. It used to be Carson but I think he's crashing hard so my money is on Cruz.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2015, 09:29:43 AM »
Cruz. The establishment wants Trump to lose Iowa, to weaken him in New Hampshire, is my guess, with the idea that Cruz will be easier to take down in New Hampshire than Trump is.
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wolfsblood07
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« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2015, 08:37:26 PM »
Jeb Bush. 
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2015, 08:43:10 PM »
LOLOLOLOLOOL
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2015, 10:19:10 PM »
Probably Cruz, but I think Rubio will end up doing better in IA relative to the polls than in NH relative to the polls simply from the fact that it is a caucus. That will allow the establishment type voters to band together a bit more than a primary.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2015, 11:20:18 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on November 30, 2015, 12:45:44 AM
Here's a dumb guess with some dumb numbers thrown out.

29% Cruz
24% Trump
12% Rubio
10% Carson
6% Paul
5% Santorum
5% Bush (DISASTER)
3% Huckabee (DISASTER)
3% Christie
2% Fiorina (DISASTER)
1% Kasich
0% Low Energy Losers

Fiorina, Bush, Santorum, and Huckabee all drop out, with Kasich and Paul considering it deeply (Carson plans to stay until South Carolina). Cruz won by a slightly bigger margin than expected, mostly at the expense of Carson. Santorum gets a late bump in Iowa, but not nearly enough to get to anywhere respectable (though he does edge out Bush, rofl lmao). Paul also does better than expected (at Trump's expense), but not nearly enough to get out of a meager fifth place.

Bush isn't dropping out until after NH. His campaign has already made it clear that they're going to politely ignore Iowa (much like McCain did).
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2015, 11:22:43 PM »
Carson, followed by Cruz, and then perhaps Trump. People underestimate the loyalty and activeness of Carson's supporters. We must remember the effects of having a caucus over a primary!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2015, 06:36:46 AM »
Quote from: youngconservative on November 30, 2015, 11:22:43 PM
Carson, followed by Cruz, and then perhaps Trump. People underestimate the loyalty and activeness of Carson's supporters. We must remember the effects of having a caucus over a primary!

Sorry but his support is crashing hard. He's been Herman Cained.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2015, 06:39:41 AM »
Hopefully Cruz wibs, but if not, Trump
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2015, 06:44:37 AM »
Cruz
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2015, 08:23:56 AM »
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