Northeast Chronicle - National Polling Results

[Clyde1998]

Long Term Northeast Polling Figures
Independence
25-08-15 - Yes 27%; No 73%
30-08-15 - Yes 40%; No 60%
02-10-15 - Yes 46%; No 54%
23-10-15 - Yes 40%; No 60% - Referendum
30-11-15 - Yes 40%; No 60% (Weighted)
28-12-15 - Yes 39%; No 61% (Weighted)

Independence, Devo Max, Status Quo
02-10-15 - Independence 46%; Devo Max 23%; Status Quo 23%; DK 8%
30-11-15 - Independence 33%; Devo Max 50%; Status Quo 17%
28-12-15 - Independence 36%; Devo Max 47%; Status Quo 17% (Weighted)

New Constitution
28-12-15 - Yes 50%; No 7%; DK 43% (Weighted)

Powers
26-05-15 - Devo Max 44%; Increased 44%; Status Quo 11%
29-05-15 - Devo Max 22%; Increased 56%; Status Quo 22%

Trust Rating - Adam Griffin
30-11-15 - 3.33
28-12-15 - 3.38

Trust Rating - Blair
12-05-15 - 3.75
30-11-15 - 4.00
28-12-15 - 4.31

Trust Rating - Bore
02-05-15 - 3.91
12-05-15 - 4.25
30-08-15 - 1.50
02-10-15 - 3.00

Trust Rating - Cinyc
30-08-15 - 4.17
02-10-15 - 4.08
30-11-15 - 4.00
28-12-15 - 4.23

Trust Rating - ClarkKent
30-08-15 - 3.83
02-10-15 - 3.31
30-11-15 - 3.42
28-12-15 - 3.62

Trust Rating - Clyde1998
02-05-15 - 4.18
12-05-15 - 3.92
18-05-15 - 4.00
26-05-15 - 4.33
29-05-15 - 4.11
13-06-15 - 4.22
30-08-15 - 3.00
02-10-15 - 3.92
30-11-15 - 4.00
28-12-15 - 4.08

Trust Rating - DemPGH
30-08-15 - 3.17
02-10-15 - 3.54
30-11-15 - 3.67

Trust Rating - DKrol
12-05-15 - 3.75
18-05-15 - 4.56
26-05-15 - 4.00
29-05-15 - 4.00
13-06-15 - 4.44
30-11-15 - 3.58
28-12-15 - 3.85

Trust Rating - Dr Cynic
12-05-15 - 3.83
18-05-15 - 4.11
26-05-15 - 4.33
29-05-15 - 4.33
13-06-15 - 4.56

Trust Rating - Enduro
28-12-15 - 3.38

Trust Rating - Evergreen
30-08-15 - 3.33
02-10-15 - 3.62

Trust Rating - JoMCaR
12-05-15 - 3.67
18-05-15 - 4.44
26-05-15 - 4.33
29-05-15 - 4.00
13-06-15 - 3.78

Trust Rating - Lief
12-05-15 - 3.50

Trust Rating - Oakvale
02-05-15 - 3.27
30-11-15 - 2.83
28-12-15 - 2.85

Trust Rating - Pikachu
12-05-15 - 3.83
18-05-15 - 4.11
26-05-15 - 4.33
29-05-15 - 4.11
13-06-15 - 4.67
30-08-15 - 3.83
02-10-15 - 4.23

Trust Rating - Polnut
12-05-15 - 3.92

Trust Rating - RGN
30-08-15 - 3.83
02-10-15 - 3.54
30-11-15 - 3.33
28-12-15 - 3.46

Trust Rating - Rpryor
30-08-15 - 3.33
02-10-15 - 3.15

Trust Rating - SawxDem
12-05-15 - 4.25
13-06-15 - 4.89

Trust Rating - Talleyrand
12-05-15 - 3.92

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
30th November 2015

DKrol makes Assembly comeback
Civic Renewal member and Secretary of the Treasury DKrol has returned to the Assembly having being appointed by Governor Blair to fill the seat vacated by Evergreen. DKrol previously stood as a Presidential Candidate - running an unsuccessful campaign against then-President Bore.

Assembly Election campaign starts
Five candidates have named themselves as candidates in the upcoming Northeast Assembly election: ClarkKent, Clyde, DKrol, Enduro and RGN. It's unclear whether Labour or The People's Party will stand a candidate in this election, at this early stage. Should there only be five candidates come election day, there will only be three seats available - due to a law passed by the Northeast Assembly a few months ago.

Opinion Poll
The Chronicle is running a new opinion poll on various issues. Readers can take part in the poll, which can be found here. The results will be announced in a week's time. The poll is open to all Atlasian citizens - the Northeast figures will be reported separately.

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
30th November 2015

Polling History Published
The Northeast Chronicle has published the full list of independence polls and trust ratings in all of the polls conducted by Clyde1998 - tracing back to May. The trust ratings show that President Bore had an approval rating of just 1.50 in August, while Governor SawxDem had a monstrous 4.89 in June - with nearly every respondent saying they "strongly trust" Sawx at that time..

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
3rd December 2015

Race wide open for Governor election
The Northeast Chronicle has been conducting an opinion poll on various issues - all our data excludes respondents from outside the Northeast, due to a lack of data. Our polling for February's Governor election shows a very close three-way race between Blair2015, ClarkKent and Clyde1998. Clyde is narrowly ahead on first preference votes - with 33% of the vote; Blair and Clark are on 25% - and 17% are undecided.

When transfers are considered - Blair wins 60% of the vote in the final round - winning every transfer vote from Clark - compared to 40% for Clyde. If the final round was between Clark and Clyde - the latter would win with 60% of the vote.

On the first preference votes, Clyde wins 100% of independence supporters, while the unionist vote is split evenly between Blair and Clark.

Governor - First Preference (excluding undecided voters)
Clyde1998 - 40%
Blair2015 -30%
ClarkKent - 30%

Independence support stagnates
Support for Northeastern independence has failed to pick up following the defeated referendum on the subject a few months ago. Excluding the 8% of undecided voters, support is at 36% in the raw figures - four percent lower than the referendum result.

However, when a turnout filter is applied - to ensure that each group has the same percentage of participants as people who voted in the referendum - the race is exactly the same as the referendum result (40-60).

Independence (excluding undecided voters)
Yes - 36% (40% weighted)
No - 64% (60% weighted)

The Northeast wants more powers
The poll suggests that support for the status quo is at a mere 17%, compared to 50% who want more exclusive powers for the Northeast. Independence support is at 33% in the three option question; the overall number of people wanting more exclusive powers in the region is 83%.

Independence three option (excluding undecided voters)
Independence - 33%
Devolution - 50%
Status Quo - 17%

Making abortion illegal is very unpopular
The Northeast people appear to be happy that the recent bill that would've outlawed abortion failed - as 67% of respondents say that abortion should remain legal, compared to just 25% who want it outlawed. All of the 25% are members of the Federalists, suggesting that it could be part of the party's Northeastern platform for the upcoming Assembly election.

Do you believe abortion should be illegal?
Yes - 25%
No - 67%
Don't Know - 8%

Issues regarding regions are most important
We're only six weeks on from the independence vote, but regional issues still dominate the Northeast. Respondents were asked the open-ended question 'what do you think is the biggest issue facing the Northeast at present?', with half of the surveyed stating issues relating to regional powers, structure and activity. Other issues raised include eduction, treason, abortion and refugees.

Trust ratings make for interesting reading
The new President has one of the lowest trust ratings in the Northeast, while the new Governor has the joint highest - along with Ciync and Clyde. The lowest trust rating is received by nationalist leader Oakvale, where he picks up just a trust rating of just 2.14 from unionists. Similarly, ClarkKent picks up the lowest trust rating among nationalists - at 1.25.

Adam Griffin (Lab) - 3.33
Blair2015 (Lab) - 4.00
Cinyc (Ind) - 4.00
ClarkKent (Fed) - 3.42
Clyde1998 (NNP) - 4.00
DemPGH (Lab) - 3.67
Dkrolga (CR) - 3.58
Oakvale (NNP) - 2.83
RGN08 (Fed) - 3.33

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

What is the scale being used for the approval ratings?

[Clyde1998]

What is the scale being used for the approval ratings?

Strongly Trust = 5
Trust = 4
Neither = 3
Distrust = 2
Strong Distrust = 1

Average of all responses taken.

[Blair]

I've managed to a reverse Bill Clinton-I'm fine with that

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
11th December 2015

Northeast Assembly Election
Voting is underway in this month's Northeast Assembly Election - as six candidates battle for five Assembly seats: ClarkKent (Ind), Clyde1998 (NNP), DKrol (CR), Enduro (Fed), Poirot (Ind) and RGN (Fed). Independent Poirot has called for voters not to vote for him, saying that he's only standing as a candidate to ensure that there will be five seats available in the Northeast Assembly - five candidates running would have reduced the Assembly to three.

We've had two returns already, but it remains far too early to call who's going to be elected.

First Preference Votes (6% Turnout)
Clyde - 1
DKrol - 1
Clark - 0
Enduro - 0
Poirot - 0
RGN - 0

[Clyde1998]

First Preference Votes (19% Turnout)
Quota - 2.00
Clyde - 2
DKrol - 2
Clark - 1
Enduro - 1
Poirot - 0
RGN - 0

[Clyde1998]

First Preference Votes (35% Turnout)
Quota - 2.83
Clyde - 4
DKrol - 2
RGN - 2
Clark - 1
Enduro - 1
Poirot - 0
Exhausted - 1

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
14th December 2015

Northeast Assembly Election Results
The Northeast Assembly election has concluded, with ClarkKent, Clyde1998, Dkrolga, Enduro and RGN08 being elected to the Assembly. ClarkKent has also been elected to the Senate, meaning that a by-election will have to take place to fill the vacant seat.

There were eighteen votes, leading to a relatively high 58% turnout of eligible voters. The turnout figure is tentative, however, due to the electoral register not being updated within the last month. We put the Northeast electorate at 36, with 31 voters reaching the posting requirements; none of the ineligible voters cast a ballot.

First Preference Votes (58% Turnout)
Quota - 4.0
✓ Clyde - 6 (33.3%)
DKrol - 4 (22.2%)
Enduro - 3 (16.7%)
Clark - 2 (11.1%)
RGN - 2 (11.1%)
Poirot - 0 (0.0%)
Exhausted - 1

Round Two
Quota - 4.0
✓ Clyde - 4
✓ DKrol - 4
✓ Enduro - 3
✓ RGN - 2.333
✓ Clark - 2
Poirot - 1
Exhausted - 1.667

Assembly before election: NNP 1; Lab 1; Ind 0; Fed 2; CR 1
Assembly before election: NNP 1; Lab 0; Ind 1; Fed 2; CR 1

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
22nd Decemeber 2015

Unemployment Falls
Unemployment has fallen by 0.3% in the Northeast, according to the latest figures from the Game Moderator. However, it still leaves 8.1% of people out of work - showing that while the Northeast has started to resolve the unemployment issue, more work needs to be done in relation to this. Unemployment remains below the nationwide average of 8.3%.

Assembly Business - Election Law Codification Commission Act Extension
Representative Clyde (NNP) has introduced a bill that will extend the time that the Election Law Codification Commission has to report until the end of the current Assembly term. The Commission has had issues, due to the large amount of legislation that it has been required to analyse. The is presently no opposition to this bill.

Assembly Business - Competitive Elections Amendment
Governor Blair (Lab) has brought forward an amendment to the Competitive Elections Act, which reduces the size of the Assembly to three seats, if five people or less are running for the Assembly. The current debate revolves around the cut-off for reducing the number of seats - the currently proposed amendment by Clyde (NNP) reduces the threshold to less than five candidates running to reduce the size of the Assembly, which has received support from ClarkKent (Fed).

Assembly Business - Education Reform Act
The Education Reform Act has been narrowly rejected by the Assembly. The act would have brought major changes to funding to enable people to continue in the education system or go to private schools. The main issues with the bill was the lack of thresholds to define "low-income parents" and the potential for the Northeast to fund vouchers to enable people to go to private schools. ClarkKent (Fed), who introduced the bill, and Enduro (Fed) voted in favour; Clyde (NNP) and DKrol (CR) voted against.

Assembly Business - Northeast Government Budget
The new budget is approaching a vote. The main changes to the budget will increase the lowest two income tax thresholds and decrease sales tax. The Assembly are awaiting estimated revenue figures, before they will vote on it.

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
1st January 2016

Happy New Year to everyone - I hope it's a good one for all of you.

As you may be aware, I've been conducting an opinion poll for the Northeast. The results are here.

Support for Independence continues to flat line

Support for independence has continued to remain level - with 39% of respondents backing independence and 61% opposed when excluding undecided voters. While support is down slightly from the 40% from last month - it's statistically irrelevant to suggest movement against independence.

Outside the Northeast, 80% of voters were opposed to independence - while 20% said they didn't know whether the Northeast should become independent.

Independence                        
Yes - 35% (39%)
No - 53% (61%)
Don't Know - 12%

In the three option question, support for increased devolution of powers has fallen slightly from 50% to 47% (when excluding undecided voters) while independence support has risen by 3% to 36%. The status quo remains unchanged at 17%.

80% of those in the rest of Atlasia backed increased devolution, while 20% supported the Status Quo.

Three Option
Independence - 35% (36%)
Increased Devolution - 45% (47%)
Status Quo - 16% (17%)
Don't Know - 4%

New Constitution may face rough ride in Northeast

The New Atlasian Constitution that's being written in the Constitutional Convention may face a tricky test in the Northeast - with 42% of voters undecided about how they would vote when the new Constitution is put to the people. This includes every 'Yes' voter in the independence referendum.

Excluding undecided voters, the support to pass the new constitution is at 87% - however given that 42% of the electors are yet to make up their mind, this lead may deteriorate when the New Constitution gets debated before voting.

In the rest of the country, 80% backed the new constitution - with 20% undecided.

New Constitution
Yes - 50% (87%)
No - 8% (13%)
Don't Know - 42%

Trust in the Governor grows in the Northeast
Governor Blair is receiving unprecedented trust ratings from the Northeast people - with a rating that's almost impossible to be higher. The rating of 4.31 eclipses the 4.00 from last month. Additionally, CJO Ciync (4.23) and Representative Clyde (4.08) have ratings over 4.00. Oakvale remains to have the lowest trust rating in the Northeast - remaining practically level at 2.85.

In the rest of Atlasia, Cinyc (4.40) and Griffin (4.20) have the highest trust ratings; Oakvale has the lowest with a mere 1.80.

Trust Ratings (Northeast/Rest of Atlasia)
Adam Griffin - 3.38/4.20
Blair2015 - 4.31/4.00
Cinyc - 4.23/4.40
ClarkKent - 3.62/3.80
Clyde1998 - 4.08/3.40
Dkrolga - 3.85/3.60
Enduro - 3.38/3.40
Oakvale - 2.85/1.80
RGN08 - 3.46/3.40
The figures are worked out by counting a strongly trust ratings as 5.00 and a strongly distrust rating as 1.00 - and finding the average of these figures. The figures used are unweighted.

Constitutional issues remain most important issue in Northeast
Half of respondents in the Northeast mentioned a constitutional issue to be the biggest issue facing the Northeast at present. Also receiving mentions were the economy and activity levels. These issues were also the main issues brought up by people outside the Northeast.

Biggest Issue facing the Northeast
Constitution/ConCon - 25%/40%
Independence/Devolution - 25%/20%
Activity - 17%/20%
Economy - 17%/0%
Griffin being President - 8%/0%
Tyranny in Nyman - 8%/0%
Right-Wing control over Assembly - 0%/20%

Referendum dominates Northeast in 2015

73% of Northeastern voters mentioned the independence referendum to be the most important event in the Northeast in 2015 - while 69% said that one of the two campaign leaders during the referendum were the most influential. Outside of the Northeast, the pattern was consistent. Sawx's banning was, also, seen as a big moment in 2015.

Most important event
Independence (Referendum) - 73%/60%
Sawx's Banning - 18%/0%
Alfred's Lt Governorship - 9%/0%
Reform Movement - 0%/20%
Refugee Crisis - 0%/20%

Most influential person
Clyde1998 - 46%/60%
Pikachu - 23%/20%
Blair - 8%/0%
Bore - 8%/0%
DKrol - 8%/0%
Sawx - 8%/0%
Griffin - 0%/20%

[Clyde1998]

Northeast Chronicle
13th January 2016

New Constitution likely to pass
Our polling is suggesting that the New Constitution will pass by a landslide - with 77% saying they would support it when it's put to the people, compared to 15% who are opposed. No regions look set to reject it, although with only very limited data from outside the Northeast, it's hard to gauge the public opinion accurately.

Griffin faces huge opposition from public at-large
President Griffin would lose in an at-large race against both Blair and Truman, according to our polling. Against Blair, he would lose 59-41 and against Truman he would get thumped by 77-23. Although, as only two Labour members took part in the poll, there's not enough data to show who would win a Labour primary.

In deciding who would be their preferred candidate to replace Griffin, the public are divided at 54-46 in favour for Truman over Blair.

No clear leader in any Presidential race
In our poll, we asked voters how they would vote in seven head-to-head Presidential races. Our data shows that no-one in any of the races is able to pull out a clear lead.

President Griffin leads in hypothetical races against Leinad (54-46) and DKrol (54-46), although it's not a clear lead. Other potential Labour candidates lead in all but one of the other races: Blair leads Leinad (54-46) and DKrol (55-45) and Truman leads Leinad (55-45), however Truman is polling behind DKrol (45-55), showing that the choice of candidate is important for Labour.

Additionally, we asked about a head-to-head between Leinad and DKrol - to see which right-wing candidate would be preferred. We're putting both at 50% - although Leinad has only got support from voters from within his own party, plus one independent.

EDIT - An additional response was made following this post - which changes the results slightly:
*Griffin-Blair = 36-50-14
*Griffin-Truman = 21-71-7
*Blair-Truman = 43-50-7
*Griffin-Leinad = 50-50-0
*Blair-Leinad = 50-50-0
*Truman-Leinad = 43-43-14
*Griffin-DKrol = 50-50-0
*Blair-DKrol = 43-43-14
*Truman-DKrol = 36-50-14
*Leinad-DKrol = 43-36-21