Is the 2016 winner a one-term-president?

[Sir Mohamed]

Is the 2016 winner, no matter which candidate or party, a one-term-president? Obama is right now the third consecutive two term president (two full terms, I don't count the one-and-an-half-termers like Teddy Roosevelt, Truman, LBJ or Nixon).
Three presidents in a row with two terms didn't occour since Jefferson-Madison-Monroe in the early 19th century.

[tschandler]

If it is Clinton I think so.  A GOP that is libertarian/fiscally conservative can certainly beat her.  Especially if the status quo is basically the same as now or slightly worse (low growth, political gridlock).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP is in trouble. If Clinton wins, she will probably be reelected. Then, you have Heinrich, Joe P Kennedy & Castro in2024. The economic recession changed landscape for foreseeabe future. Even if Clinton wins narrowly. SW is locked in.

[Sir Mohamed]

The GOP is in trouble. If Clinton wins, she will probably be reelected. Then, you have Heinrich, Joe P Kennedy & Castro in2024. The economic recession changed landscape for foreseeabe future. Even if Clinton wins narrowly. SW is locked in.

In my opinion, it is more likely for a Republican to be reelected. I don't say it's impossible for Hillary, but easier for a Republican, including Trump.

In 2020, the WH would be occupied by the Dems for twelve years and it is likely that the current gridlock continues. Dems may take back the Senate next year, but not the House (however, they'll lose the Senate in 2018 again).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate map is a repeat of 2016, CO, NH, & Ia are the tippers, in 2020; whereas in 2016, NH, FL, Nv & Co. We will see, but Gardner, Ernst, Shaheen seats are in play.Which is around 272 map.

[Badger]

Anyone who even tries to seriously answer this question is either a psychic or an idiot

[Beezer]

Hear, hear. There are so many factors to take into consideration that make it pointless to predict what the political climate is going to look like in 2020.

[Kingpoleon]

If it's a Democrat, because of voter fatigue, yes.

[Labuan Bajo]

Once we get to the aftermath of the 2020 election, I will fire up my time machine and come back in time to vote in this poll.

[Asian Nazi]

It depends on the economic climate in the second half of 2020, which is like impossible to predict this far out.  I voted that they'll get re-elected, because most modern presidents seem to manage it.

Also, voter fatigue isn't real.

[Labuan Bajo]

Also, voter fatigue isn't real.

[bedstuy]

One or two, IMO.

[Xing]

There's absolutely no way to know, since most of the factors that will determine the 2020 race won't be clear until long after 2016.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Anyone who even tries to seriously answer this question is either a psychic or an idiot

5 years out from the 2020 election? Yeah. So many what-ifs.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Considering the last 3 Presidents served two full terms, some gigantic screwup would have to happen for Clinton/R to lose in 2020.

[MATTROSE94]

If it is Clinton I think so.  A GOP that is libertarian/fiscally conservative can certainly beat her.  Especially if the status quo is basically the same as now or slightly worse (low growth, political gridlock).

Rand Paul could easily win in 2020 against an incumbent President Hillary Clinton (or her running-mate assuming that she steps down after one term).

[Bull Moose Base]

If it is Clinton I think so.  A GOP that is libertarian/fiscally conservative can certainly beat her.  Especially if the status quo is basically the same as now or slightly worse (low growth, political gridlock).

Rand Paul could easily win in 2020 against an incumbent President Hillary Clinton (or her running-mate assuming that she steps down after one term).

I'd be very surprised if it takes that long. If I had to guess, popular support for Paul will be so strong that the constitution will be amended to allow Hillary to be re-called and Paul be elected in her place by the end of 2017.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP will try to impeach her, it wont happen, and if they go that route, it will insure her reelection. I doubt any tea partier will win, anytime soon. That goes the same in 2020.

[dudeabides]

President Rubio and Vice President Kasich defeat Senator Gillibrand and Congressman Castro in 2020.

[Zache]

If it is Clinton I think so.  A GOP that is libertarian/fiscally conservative can certainly beat her.  Especially if the status quo is basically the same as now or slightly worse (low growth, political gridlock).

Rand Paul could easily win in 2020 against an incumbent President Hillary Clinton (or her running-mate assuming that she steps down after one term).

I'd be very surprised if it takes that long. If I had to guess, popular support for Paul will be so strong that the constitution will be amended to allow Hillary to be re-called and Paul be elected in her place by the end of 2017.

Are you implying an electoral heavyweight like Rand Paul doesn't have the silent support  right now to drive him through to the nomination and a general election landslide in 2016?

[Bull Moose Base]

If it is Clinton I think so.  A GOP that is libertarian/fiscally conservative can certainly beat her.  Especially if the status quo is basically the same as now or slightly worse (low growth, political gridlock).

Rand Paul could easily win in 2020 against an incumbent President Hillary Clinton (or her running-mate assuming that she steps down after one term).

I'd be very surprised if it takes that long. If I had to guess, popular support for Paul will be so strong that the constitution will be amended to allow Hillary to be re-called and Paul be elected in her place by the end of 2017.

Are you implying an electoral heavyweight like Rand Paul doesn't have the silent support  right now to drive him through to the nomination and a general election landslide in 2016?

I am embarrassed to admit I got distracted by the many names above Rand Paul in 2016 primary polls. I take it back. Of course, Paul will win in 2016 but I still maintain America will amend the constitution in his first year so that they can re-elect him sooner.

[/]

Yes if Hillary/Rubio

No if Trump/Cruz

Because those are basically the only people with a chance tbh

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These Clinton doomed scenarios isnt going to happen. The Senate map in 2020 is almost a duplicate of 2016, around 272, Gardner, Ernst & Tillis seats will be up and Dems defending NH & MI. Clinton will be able to be reelected in that scenario.

[bobloblaw]

These Clinton doomed scenarios isnt going to happen. The Senate map in 2020 is almost a duplicate of 2016, around 272, Gardner, Ernst & Tillis seats will be up and Dems defending NH & MI. Clinton will be able to be reelected in that scenario.

The 2020 Senate has NOTHING to do with the General Election. With a recession in 2018 and 7.5% unemployment in 2020 versus 4.5% in 2016, plus a $2 trilion deficit, Clinton will be defeated in 2020. Any recession will rip open the Dem party on how to deal with rising unemployment. She either doesnt run, will face a primary challenge and probably a third party challenge from the left.

If the Dems believe their own propaganda, which they do, they think they will never lose another election. This will be a recipe for the left wing of the party going absolutely ballistic if Clinton isnt much to the left of Obama.

[bobloblaw]

It depends on the economic climate in the second half of 2020, which is like impossible to predict this far out.  I voted that they'll get re-elected, because most modern presidents seem to manage it.

Also, voter fatigue isn't real.

No its doesnt. It depends in the economic climate in 2019. 1992 was actually pretty good in the 2Q and 3Q. It was 1991 that was bad. 1976 was actually ok, it was 1975 that was bad.